【作者】 李向前；

【导师】 李东；

【作者基本信息】 南京航空航天大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 我国经济高速发展过程中国民健康素质发展问题日益受到重视，但经济繁荣发展与国民健康状态堪忧状况仍然共存，并且在当前复杂国情下，国民健康与区域经济发展不均衡诱因日趋复杂化，继经济发展决定观之后，越来越多的学者把国民健康也作为社会发展的重要目标之一进行研究。国民健康与区域经济两者可以作为一个复杂系统，相互之间存在着正向和反向作用的耦合关系，这一耦合关系与人类社会发展的经济系统与人类自身发展直接相关，进而也关系着区域可持续发展。因此，研究国民健康与区域经济两者耦合现状、内在运作机制与规律，不仅有助于了解区域可持续发展能力，而且也为解决国民健康与区域经济复合系统发展问题、促进区域可持续和谐发展提供理论分析与实践研究基础。论文基于现有国民健康与区域经济系统耦合发展相关研究文献的综合分析，借鉴现有研究成果，从系统耦合的角度分析国民健康与区域经济系统，以国民健康与区域经济系统耦合发展量化分析为研究目的，从以下五个方面进行了相应研究：1.基于系统耦合相关理论对国民健康与区域经济系统进行理论分析，并界定该复合系统耦合发展的实质所在与量化分类。研究表明：国民健康与区域经济耦合系统具有整体性、共生性、复杂性、开放性、动态性、自组织性和被组织性等特征，其中区域经济系统对国民健康系统产生胁迫效应，国民健康系统对区域经济系统产生约束效应，对国民健康与区域经济系统的耦合发展状况的量化分析，包括对两个子系统以及复合系统的衡量、系统的耦合发展水平的静态测度与动态侧度、系统的耦合演化等。2.构建基于效率与熵函数基础上的耦合发展水平静态量化测度模型，并实证分析中国近十年来国民健康与区域经济系统耦合发展规律，揭示该复合系统的子系统与整体在发展过程度中存在的问题。研究表明：基于随机前沿分析（SFA）和数据包络方法（DEA）效率分析测度模型适合于国民健康与区域经济子系统耦合静态水平的测度，国民健康与区域经济子系统耦合水平都表现出平缓上升态势，并且区域之间耦合水平差异较大；基于熵函数对国民健康与区域经济复合系统耦合水平进行静态测度，发现复合系统耦合发展水平总体上处于初阶和中阶程度的水平，在时序上表现出平缓上升态势，省域之间耦合发展水平差异较大，并且这一差异呈现出发散态势。3.构建基于效率分析与系统耦合度的耦合发展水平动态量化测度模型，从动态角度分析国民健康与区域经济系统耦合发展状况，探讨其所存在的问题。研究表明：基于效率视角的Malmquist生产率指数分解分析国民健康与区域经济系统子系统耦合发展动态趋势，结合SFA方法比DEA方法能较好的排除随机因素而反映其现实实质，测算结果显示区域之间全要素生产率、技术前沿、技术效率、纯技术效率、规模效率五种动态变化差异较大；基于耦合度对国民健康与区域经济复合系统耦合水平动态趋向进行分析，发现复合系统耦合发展水平动态趋向在时序上表现出平缓上升态势，区域之间复合系统耦合发展动态趋向差异较大，但这一差异呈现出收敛态势。4.以耗散结构、系统熵、系统共生等理论为基础，分析国民健康与区域经济系统耦合演化机制及路径，并探讨其演化过程中的稳态特征。研究表明：国民健康与区域经济复合系统耦合演化是基于宏观层面的耗散结构转换和微观层面“负熵”的吸收，基于logistic的演化分析发现国民健康与区域经济子系统的耦合水平演化都已经经过了初期起步阶段和成长发展阶段，并先后于2008-2009和2004-2005年度进入成熟期，系统内部不和谐现象已然产生，国民健康与区域经济复合系统的耦合发展仍处于起步初期，发展的水平及程度相对较低；另外，复合系统耦合稳态性在八年间处于中等稳态程度状况，且在非典、地震、雪灾以及经济危机的影响下，在2004-2005和2008-2009年度期间呈现出两个“凹”形，出现了大幅下降而甚至表现为非稳态性，但近两年的发展态势呈现出恢复趋势。5.综合考虑影响国民健康与区域经济系统耦合发展的相关因素，并分别构建子系统与复合系统影响因素测度模型，讨论影响因素对子系统和复合系统产生的各种效应。研究表明：基于SFA方法分析国民健康与区域经济子系统的影响因素发现，对于国民健康子系统耦合发展，高健康服务可达水平促进了其效率的提升，教育水平、政府健康投入能力和城市化水平对其效率产生着负效应，个人健康投入能力则不能发挥明显的影响作用；对于区域经济子系统耦合发展，产权结构变量、贸易依存度变量、技术创新能力变量、产业结构变量和城乡收入差距变量都产生一定的正向促进作用，而政府规制的作用不明显；基于偏最小二乘通径(PLS)方法分析国民健康与区域经济复合系统耦合发展的各种影响因素，发现城乡收入差异较教育水平对其耦合发展的干扰更大，有效处理污染排放的能力则较技术创新能力对其耦合发展的促进更大。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the process of China’s rapid economic development, the more attention be paid to the issue ofcivil health development, but economic prosperity and precarious situation of civil health still coexist,and under the current complicated circumstances, the factors leading civil health and regionaleconomic development to imbalance are increasingly complex. After the concept of economicdevelopment, more and more scholars takeing civil health as one of the important goals of the socialdevelopment to research. Civil health and regional economy both as a complex system, there existforward and reverse effect coupling relationship between them, and this coupling relationship directlyrelated to economic and human development, and bearing on regional sustainable development.Therefore, research on the coupled status, internal operation mechanism and regulation of civil healthand regional economy, not only contribute to the understanding of the capacity of regional sustainabledevelopment, but also provide a theoretical analysis and practical research foundation to solve theproblem of complex system development and promote regional sustainable and harmoniousdevelopment of regional economy.The paper gives a comprehensive analysis of the existing research of civil health and regionaleconomic system coupling development, referring to the existing research results, analysis of civilhealth and regional economic system from the angle of system coupling, take the couplingquantitative analysis of civil health and regional economic system as the research purposes, thecorresponding research from the following five aspects:1. Theoretically analyzed civil health and regional economic system based on the systemcoupling theory, quantitative classification and define the essence of the composite system couplingdevelopment. The research shows that: the civil health and regional economic coupling system hascharacteristics of integrity, symbiosis, complexity, openness, dynamic, self-organization andorganization, regional economic generates take stress effects on civil health system, which the civilhealth system take restriction effect on regional economic system. The quantitative analysis of thecoupling development of the civil health and regional economic system, including the coupling levelof development of two subsystems and composite system, measure composite system’s static anddynamic development, and the coupling evolution of the system. 2. Construction coupling development static level measure model based on efficiency analysisand entropy function, empirical analyze regulation of coupling development of civil health andregional economic system in recent ten years, reveal the problem of composite system and subsystemsin development process. Research shows that: The efficiency measure model based on the stochasticfrontier analysis (SFA) and data envelopment analysis (DEA) is suitable for measure static couplinglevel of civil health and regional economic subsystem, the coupled levels all showed gradual upwardtrend, and the level of coupling between regional are largely differences; the efficiency measuremodel based on entropy function is suitable for measure static coupling level of the composite system,found generally in the primer and order degree level, and shows a smooth upward trend, difference ofcoupled development level between regional are larger, and this shows a divergent trend.3. Construction dynamic coupling development level measure model of quantification modelbased on the efficiency analysis and coupling degree, analyze coupling development of civil healthand regional economic system from dynamic angle, discusses its problems. Research shows that: baseon malmquist productivity index, combined with the SFA method can remove random factors andreflected the reality of its essence more than the DEA method, the calculation results show that fivekinds of dynamic changes of regional total factor productivity, the technology frontier, technicalefficiency, pure technical efficiency, scale efficiency are differences; analysis civil health and regionaleconomic complex system coupling level dynamic trend based on coupling degree, found thecoupling development level trend shown slowly rising trend, the composite system coupling dynamicdevelopment between regional are larger, but this difference shows a convergence trend.4. Based on the dissipative structure, entropy, symbiotic system theories, analyze couplingevolution mechanism and path of civil health and regional economic system, and discuss the steadystate characteristics of its evolution process. Research shows that: as coupling evolution of civil healthand regional economic complex system, it is dissipative structure conversion in macro level and"negative entropy" absorption in micro level, the evolution of logistic analysis showed that the levelof coupling evolution of civil health and regional economic subsystem have been passed the initialstage and growth stage, and entering the mature stage on2008-2009and2004-2005, and disharmonyphenomenon of internal system is produced; the coupling development of civil health and regionaleconomic complex system is still in the initial stage, the development level is relatively low; inaddition, the composite system coupling steady moderate steady-state level in eight years, andshowing two "concave" shape during2004-2005and2008-2009, fell sharply and even performance isunstable, but the development of nearly two years showing a recovery trend. 5. Considering the factors related to coupling development of civil health and regional economicsystem, and construction effect factors measurement model of subsystem and the composite system,discusses the influence of various factors on the effect of system and composite system. Researchshows that: Analyze the influencing factors of the civil health and regional economic subsystem basedon the SFA method, found that for coupling development of civil health system, high level of healthservices promote its efficiency, level of education, government health input ability and developmentlevel of the city has a negative effect on the efficiency, effect capacity of personal health input can notplay obviously; for coupled development of regional economic subsystem, property rights structurevariables, trade dependence variable, technology innovation ability, the industrial structure variablesvariables and the income gap between urban and rural produces certain positive role, but the role ofgovernment regulation is not obvious; analyze various factors impact of coupling development of civilhealth and regional economic complex system based on partial least squares path (PLS) method,urban-rural income difference play a more effective interfere then educational level, pollutionemissions promote greater capability on the coupling development then technological innovation.更多还原