【作者】 介鹏飞；

【导师】 朱能； 李德英；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 集中供暖系统由于其自身的优点，得到了普遍的推广和应用，但是，集中供暖系统的能耗却居高不下。集中供暖系统的不合理的运行调节方式是造成其能耗偏高的主要原因之一。本文分析了集中供暖系统在运行过程中存在的问题，对集中供暖系统的运行过程进行了深入的优化研究，主要包括供暖热负荷的预测、热源的优化调度、供暖参数的优化选择以及优化结果的敏感性分析。把集中供暖系统与灰色系统比较后发现，当研究供暖热负荷时，可以把集中供暖系统作为灰色系统进行研究。引入了灰色系统理论，结合具体的工程实例，研究了常规灰色模型与新陈代谢灰色模型在供暖热负荷的预测中的应用，结果表明新陈代谢灰色模型能够比较准确的对供暖热负荷进行预测。重点分析了预测模型中原始数据的个数对预测精度的影响程度，结果表明合适的原始数据个数可以使预测模型取得更加满意的预测精度。引入灰色关联法，结合具体工程实例，进一步研究了相关的参数对供暖热负荷的影响程度。提出了在供暖热负荷的预测值的基础上，实施热量调节的运行策略。使用最优化方法，对热量的生产过程和热量的输送过程进行了优化研究。分别从经济性和节能性的角度，建立了热源优化调度的数学模型以及热量输送过程的优化模型，并将相应的优化模型应用到具体的工程实例中，使用MATLAB软件对优化模型编程求解，得到了热源优化调度的结果以及热量输送过程的优化调节方案，验证了优化模型的正确性。使用敏感性分析的方法，分析了集中供暖系统中的相关参数对优化结果的影响程度，分别得到了这些参数对优化结果的影响程度的大小关系。本文对集中供暖系统的运行调节方式进行了优化，包括热量的生产过程和热量的输送过程。在保证按需供暖的前提下，这种优化的运行调节方式能够更加有效的使用能源，减少能源消耗，降低运行成本。更多还原

【Abstract】 District heating systems have been widely promoted and applied because of theiradvantages. But the heating energy consumption is very high. The unreasonableoperation regulation method is one of the main causes of this high energyconsumption. The existing problems of district heating systems in the process ofoperation were analyzed in this paper. The operation process of district heatingsystems was deeply optimized. This paper mainly includes the heating load prediction,optimal scheduling of heat source, optimization of heating parameters, and sensitiveanalysis of the optimal results.District heating systems were compared with grey systems. It was found thatheating systems can be regarded as grey systems when studying the heating load.Grey system theory was introduced to predict the heating load in the concreteengineering example. The conventional grey model and metabolism grey model wereboth used to predict the heating load. The results show that the prediction accuracy ofthe metabolism grey model is higher than that of the conventional grey model. Theinfluence of the number of the original data in the prediction model on the predictionaccuracy was analyzed. The results show that the suitable number of the original datain the prediction model can make the prediction accuracy more satisfied. Greycorrelation method was introduced to study the influence of the related parameters onthe heating load in the concrete engineering example. The implementation of heatregulation strategies based on the predictive heating load in the process of operationwas proposed in this paper. Optimization method was used to study the heatproduction process and heat transportation process. From the economic and energyconservation point of view, the mathematical model of the optimal scheduling of heatsources and optimization model of the heat transportation process were establishedrespectively in this paper. The corresponding optimization models were applied to theconcrete engineering examples respectively. Program was complied to solve theoptimization models using MATLAB software. The results about the optimalscheduling of heat sources and optimal operation regulation scheme of the heattransportation process were obtained， which verified the correctness of theoptimization models. The influence of the related parameters on the optimal results was analyzed using the sensitivity analysis method. The major and minor relationshipof the influence of the related parameters on the optimal results was obtained.The operation regulation mode of district heating systems was optimized in thispaper, which includes the heat production process and heat transportation process. Theheat can be supplied according to the heat demand using this optimal operationregulation mode. Energy can be used more effectively so as to reduce the energyconsumption and operation cost using this optimal operation regulation mode.更多还原