【作者】 钟鸣；

【导师】 张秋文；

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 ， 水利水电工程， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 作为一种重要的水利基础设施，水库在发电、防洪、供水、灌溉等方面带来巨大经济和社会效益的同时，也可能给其周边地区带来严重的生态和环境负面影响：一方面，由于修建水库土建工程量大，水库及其周缘地区原有的地理地貌和环境地质会受到很大影响；另一方面，水库建成后开始蓄水，淹没和浸湿范围通常比较大，在水的作用下，库坝区的岩石应力发生改变，这将对水文地质和地震地质造成影响。其中，水库诱发地震就是水利工程地质分析和环境影响评价工作中，非常重要的一项基本内容。经过长期研究，国内外对水库诱发地震的研究已取得一些成果，主要体现在水库地震统计和震例剖析研究、水库诱发地震成因机理分析研究、水库诱发地震的预测和评价方法研究三个方面。然而，当前水库诱发地震的研究尚未对其成因机理形成统一的认识，水库地震危险性预测与评价方法，大都把影响水库诱发地震的各种环境条件因素当成确定状态，忽略了水库诱发地震孕育和发生过程中存在的不确定性特征。本文在全面分析水库诱发地震的国内外研究现状和发展动态基础上，对水库诱发地震孕育和发生过程进行不确定性建模分析，以长江三峡水库及其周缘地区环境条件为基础数据，对水库诱发地震风险进行多层次评价。论文的主要内容如下：（1）选取新丰江水库、隔河岩水库和印度科依纳水库作为代表性的典型震例，对其成因机理和地震活动规律进行精细剖析，结合已有水库诱发地震成因假说，定性地归纳分析水库诱震组合环境条件因素，为水库诱发地震风险评价指标体系的构建奠定了基础。（2）针对水库诱发地震成因机理的复杂性，在系统辨识水库地震诱震环境条件基础上，采用关联规则理论，挖掘诱震环境条件与水库诱发地震活动之间的相关性，并定量分析其诱发作用的大小，构建关联规则支持下水库诱发地震风险评价指标体系，为水库诱发地震风险评价过程中的诱震因素重要性比较提供了依据。（3）针对水库诱发地震孕育和发生过程中的不确定性，将水库诱发地震总体组合环境条件作为一个模糊系统，对其风险从下往上逐层进行权重计算和模糊映射，研究了水库诱发地震风险多层次模糊综合评价方法，并分析了其优势与不足。（4）考虑到重要性标度和隶属度确定这两个过程受个人经验和主观影响较大，提出了基于云模型改进的水库诱发地震风险多层次模糊综合评价方法，通过期望、熵、超熵三个数字特征，将随机性、模糊性和离散性有机地结合起来，使水库诱发地震危险性评价结果更加客观准确。本文对揭示水库诱发地震孕育和发生的客观规律，对丰富、完善现有水库诱发地震预测评价模型及方法，促进水电工程地质灾害评价技术的进步具有重要理论意义，为水利水电工程导致的水库诱发地震危险性评价提供了技术支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 As one of the important hydraulic projects, huge artificial water reservoirs are builtfor generation of hydroelectric power, flood control, water supply and irrigation purposes.Water conservancy projects make life more convenient and bring economic benefits, whilethey may also cause terrible damage to the ecology and environment. For one thing, sincereservoirs always cover a large geographical area, the construction may influence thetopographic features, the hydrogeology and the environment geology of reservoir and itssurrounding region; for another, since water flows in fractured rock may change the stressof rocks, seismogenic environment can be affected by reservoir impounding.Reservoir-induced seismicity is indeed one of the most serious hazards in waterconservancy projects. Analysis of the possible seismic risks of a reservoir and itssurrounding region is one of the major considerations in geological analysis andenvironmental impact assessments of hydraulic projects.Previous researches on reservoir-induced seismicity focus on three major aspects:The initial work focus on analyzing and comparising reservoir-induced seismicityexamples; on the basis of these studies, the cause mechanism and physical mechanism arediscussed; Since1990s, many workshops and symposia have been organized onreservoir-induced seismicity, and the development of this topic has transferred toquantitative prediction and evaluation. However there is no agreement on the causemechanism of reservoir-induced seismicity. Uncertainty exists both in the model structureand in the parameters, and it is thus not an easy work to evaluate the risks inreservoir-induced seismicity. Most of previous researches consider the environmentalfactors as unchangeable factors, but ignore the uncertainty of the seismogenicenvironment in reservoir-induced seismicity. The seismogenic environment ofreservoir-induced seismicity is a comprehensive and fuzzy system with multi-lever,multi-criteria and multi-objects. As an extension of previous researches, an uncertaintyassessment model based on the multi-hierarchy risk index system of reservoir-inducedseismicity is proposed, and take Yangtze Three Gorges Reservoir as an sample to illustratethis model. The main contents in this dissertation are as follows:(1) Select Xinfengjiang reservoir, Geheyan reservoir and Koyna reservoir asexamples, and analyse reservoir-induced seismicity causing mechanism and seismicactivities in details. According to the cause mechanism proposed by previous research, thisthesis summarizes the environmental factors which may cause reservoir-induced seismicity using quantitative analysis, which are the basis of hierarchy assessment systemof reservoir-induced seismicity.(2) Due to the complexity of the hydrogeology and environmental geology in thelarge submerged area of reservoir, base on the risk identification in reservoir-inducedseisimicity combine environmental factors, association rules are developed to illustrate therelationship between environmental factor and possible earthquake magnitude and thenthis thesis analyse the importance of environmental factor using quantitative method. Thenthe hierarchy assessment system of reservoir-induced seismicity based on association rulesis constructed, which supports the comparison among environmental factors.(3) Due to the uncertainty of the seismogenic environment of reservoir-inducedseismicity, this thesis considers the combination of envirionmental factors inreservoir-induced seisimicity as a fuzzy system and carries out weight calculation andfuzzy mapping from low layer to high layer. A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation modelbased on the multi-hierarchy risk index system of reservoir-induced seismicity is proposed,and then the advantages and disadvantages of this method are discussed.(4) Considering that the-decision of important scales and membership degree is ofteninfluenced by subjectivity, this thesis proposes a cloud improved multi-hierarchy fuzzycomprehensive evaluation model to assess the reservoir-induced seismicity. With thenumerical characteristic index described by expectation value (Ex), entropy (En) andhyper entropy (He), this model includes not only the medium value of the concept, butalso the fuzziness and the discreteness, causing the results of reservoir-induced seismicityassessment more objective and more accurate.The results in this thesis help to illustrate the objective law of seismogenicenvironment and seismic activities, and this thesis is also an extension of previousresearch in the prediction and assessment method of reservoir-induced seismicity.Moreover, this thesis contributes to improve the technology of disaster assessment inhydraulic engineering, and provides a reliable evidence of risk assessment inreservoir-induced seismicity.更多还原