【作者】 杨德岭；

【导师】 陈万明；

【作者基本信息】 南京航空航天大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 经过30余年的发展，我国民办高等教育取得了举世瞩目的成绩，民办高等教育由我国高等教育的补充形式发展为重要的组成部分。在快速发展的过程中，我国民办高校也出现了招生难、投资效益低下、可持续发展能力不强等不容忽视的问题，一些民办高校甚至出现了关停和倒闭现象。面对高等教育市场不断增大的竞争压力，如何提高我国民办高等教育的投资效益、增强其投资风险的防控能力、实现其可持续发展，成为摆在我国政府、民办高等教育举办者（管理者）和研究者面前亟需解决的一个重要问题。本研究旨在通过对我国民办高等教育投资与风险管理的分析和探讨，进一步丰富与完善我国民办高等教育投资与风险管理理论的应用，为我国民办高等教育投资决策与风险预警提供量化分析技术，为我国民办高等教育投资效益与投资风险管理水平的提高提供理论指导，进而为政府制定相关政策和民办高等教育投资者决策提供参考。本研究以高等教育学、教育经济学、投资学、管理学的理论为基础，采用规范分析与实证分析相结合，定性分析与定量分析相结合，静态分析与动态分析相结合的研究方法，综合应用现代管理科学与系统科学新技术，对民办高等教育投资与风险管理展开了系统研究，主要成果和结论如下：（1）系统地分析了我国民办高等教育发展与投资现状，发掘出我国民办高等教育投资中存在的主要问题。分析结果表明：我国民办高等教育发展经历了“办学地位确立期→办学空间伸缩期→高速发展期→全面调整期”等几个阶段，并呈现出“办学规模不断扩大、办学模式日益丰富、办学层次不断拓展、办学质量不断提高”的发展特征。与国外发达国家相比，我国民办高校尚未建立多元化的融资渠道，办学资金来源渠道单一，办学资金主要依靠学杂费收入；我国政府对民办高校的财政投入远远低于国外发达国家；同时，我国民办高校面临学费上涨空间有限、银行贷款困难、结构性供求矛盾突出、区域发展不平衡等问题。（2）建立了我国民办高等教育投资效益测度模型及投资效益评价体系。本研究在分析民办高等教育成本与收益构成的基础上，以教育内部收益率和项目投资收益率核算方法为基础，基于投资者的视角，建立了两阶段民办高等教育投资效益动态测算模型，并在该模型的基础上，提出了民办高等教育投资收益区间的确定方法，并具体地测算出投资收益合理回报区间，为民办高等教育投资决策提供了参考依据。该模型以高等教育收益理论和高等教育成本分担理论为指导，以民办高等教育成本、收益核算为依据，综合考虑固定资产投资回收期对投资收益的影响因素，将投资收益率的计算公式分为两类，分别给出了固定资产回收期内与固定资产回收期外的民办高校的投资收益率的测度公式，弥补了传统的投资收益率计算存在的不足，为民办高校投资收益率的计算提供了新方法。并利用该方法计算出我国民办高校在固定资产回收期内的投资收益区间和在固定资产回收期外的投资收益区间，测算结果能够比较客观地反映我国民办高校不同发展阶段投资收益率的动态变化情况，为民办高等教育投资提供了有益的参考。该模型克服了传统的收益率计算未体现收益与成本的时间价值的弊端，使得民办高校投资收益率测度结果更加科学合理，为我国民办高等教育投资收益测算提供了新方法。继而还构建了我国民办高等教育投资收益评估指标体系，并建立了基于矩阵关联分析法的民办高校投资效益动态评估模型，通过实证分析检验了模型的有效性，为进一步全面量化评估我国民办高等教育收益提供了技术支撑。（3）构建了民办高等教育投资风险评估模型与风险预警系统。在投资风险成因分析的基础上，根据民办高校投资风险评估的目标与特点，结合灰色聚类评价的要素，利用灰色三角白化权评价思想，构建了适合民办高校投资风险的评价模型，并通过实证分析检验了该模型的有效性。该模型可以实现对民办高校投资风险进行分类，为我国民办高等教育投资风险评估提供了新方法。另外，设计出我国民办高校投资风险预警系统，包括预警指标体系的构建、警度测度模型的建立、警号识别系统的设计，并根据民办高校投资风险预警的内涵，将功效系数法引入到民办高校投资风险警度测度中，为民办高校投资风险警度度量提供技术支撑，对民办高等教育投资风险预警研究进行了有益的探索。本研究所构建的基于灰色三角白化权的民办高校投资风险评估模型是进行民办高校投资风险评估的有效方法，可以实现对民办高校投资风险的全面评估，而基于功效系数法的民办高校投资风险预警模型是民办高校投资风险预警的有效方法，可以实现对民办高校投资风险进行事前预警，为防范民办高校的投资风险提供帮助。因而，投资风险评估结果可以为投资风险预警提供参考，风险预警是风险评估的延伸，两者互为验证互为补充，为民办高校投资风险分析与风险预警提供了完整的方法体系，也为民办高等教育投资管理和投资风险预警研究提供了多样化的工具。（4）对我国民办高等教育投资环境和投资收益的变化趋势进行了预测，并据此提出了相关政策建议。预测结果表明：“十二五”期间，从宏观经济环境看，我国将为我国民办高等教育的持续、健康发展提供良好的外部经济环境。从投资政策环境看，我国将重点推进民办高等教育的法人制度、办学自主权、税收优惠、财政资助、财务管理、师生权利保障等方面的政策和法规建设，将进一步完善民办高等教育的政策与法规体系。从民办高校生源情况看，虽然面临人口出生率下降因素的影响，但随着高中阶段教育的普及、高等学校毛入学率的逐步提高和招生计划的持续增加，以及国家招生政策对民办高校的倾斜，我国民办高等教育的招生规模与在校生规模还将有适度的增大，“十二五”期间我国民办高校的生源相对充足，仍有较大的发展空间。从民办高等教育行业发展趋势看，民办高等教育发展多元化和依法办学将成为民办高校发展的趋势。从民办高校投资潜力看，我国民办高校投资收益率与“十一五”期间相比将有所提高，我国民办高校将进入规模效益与内涵提升并举阶段，当然民办高校在快速发展过程中，也面临来自公办高校与民办高校以及民办高校内部之间的竞争压力，同时，还普遍存在整体办学水平不高和综合竞争力不强等问题，潜在的生源风险、运营风险、管理风险、政策风险、不确定性风险日趋凸显，由此而导致民办高校发展出现此兴彼衰的局面，且将持续较长一段时间。最后，从提高投资效益与加强投资风险防控的角度，提出了适合我国民办高等教育发展趋势的投资对策，为我国民办高等教育投资与风险管理提供了有益的参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 After nearly30years’ development, China’s private higher education has made remarkableachievements. The private higher education has been replenished by higher education, and it has beenan integral part of higher education in China. With the rapid development of private higher education,a series of problems have appeared in recent years. Some private colleges are facing with theproblems of enrollment difficulties, inefficient investment and weak sustainable development. Someprivate colleges are even shutting down and closing down. Facing the increasing competitive pressurefrom higher education, how to improve investment efficiency, how to enhance risk prevention andcontrol capacity of investment so as to achieve sustainable development have become the importantproblems for the government and researchers.By analyzing and discussing the investment and risk management of China’s private higher education,the thesis aims to improve and perfect the theory of China’s private higher education investment andrisk management, and provide a quantitative analysis technique for investment decision-making andrisk management technology of private higher education, and provide a theoretical guidance for theincrease of investment efficiency and investment risk management level in private higher education,and provide a reference for the government to formulate policies and the private higher educationinvestors to make decisions.Based on disciplines of higher education, education economics, investment and management theory,the research adopts a method combing normative analysis with empirical analysis, qualitative analysiswith quantitative analysis, static analysis with dynamic analysis. It integrates the new technology ofthe application of modern management science and systems science, making a systematic research onprivate higher education investment and risk management. The main achievements and conclusionsare as follows:（1）Make a systematic analysis of the status of China’s private higher education development andinvestment, and identify the problems in the investment of private higher education. The analysisresults show that the development process of China’s private higher education has experienced severalphases from the established phase of running status, the space expansion phase, high-speeddevelopment phase to comprehensive adjustment phase. Meanwhile, the phase characteristics ofunceasingly scale expansion, increasingly rich and colorful mode, continually expanded educationlevel and the continuous improvement in the education quality have been presented. Compared withthe developed countries, our private colleges have not built diversified financing channels and theircapital source channels are single. They are running the colleges depending on the tuition fees. Thefinancial input from the government is far less than that of the developed countries. The privatecolleges are facing many problems such as the limited rising space of tuition fees, hard bank loans, theobvious contradiction between supply and demand structures, unbalanced regional development andso on.（2）Establish the measurement model and the benefit evaluation system of investment efficiency ofChina’s private higher education. Based on the analysis of the formation of the costs and profits in private education, investor’s perspective and education internal rate of return calculation, the researchbuilds a dynamic measurement model and proposes a method of confirming the investment incomeinterval of private higher education. The reasonable return interval is also calculated concretely, whichprovides an evidence for their decision-making. Guided by the higher education income theory andcost-sharing theory, this research is based on the calculation of the costs and benefits of private highereducation, which takes the influencing factors to the benefits from the fixed asset investment paybackperiod into consideration and divides the calculation formulae into two, namely, the measurementformulae inside and outside the return period of fix asset investment, which replenishes the drawbacksof traditional return rate of investment and offers a new method for its calculation. This method is alsoadapted to calculate the investment income interval of private higher education inside and outsidetheir return period of fix asset investment. The results can objectively reflect the dynamic changes ofreturn rate on investment in different phases and offer a reference for the investment of private highereducation. This model overcomes that the traditional rate of return calculation method can’t reflect thebenefits and costs of the time value of drawbacks, and is able to make the measure results of theinvestment rate of return of private higher education more reasonable, which offers a new method forthe calculation of the investment rate of return. Furthermore, an evaluation target system ofinvestment benefits is built. Based on the analysis of the matrix associated method, the investmentefficiency dynamic evaluation model is established. The validity of the model is verified throughempirical analysis so as to quantify and evaluate the return of private higher education.（3）Construct the risk assessment and early warning system of China’s private higher education. Byanalyzing the causes of investment risk, the research builds a private college’s investment riskassessment index system in accordance with the goals and characteristics of private higher educationrisk assessment. Combined with the characteristics of the gray clustering assessment, and with thethinking of gray triangle whitening weight evaluation, the research builds the investment riskassessment model that is suitable for private higher education, and verifies the validity of the modelthrough empirical analysis. This model can realize the classification of the investment risk of privatecolleges and provides a new method for the investment risk assessment. Moreover, the early warningsystem of China’s private higher education we designed includes the construction of early warningindicator system, establishment of warning degree model, set of warning degree and so on. Based onthe efficacy coefficient method, the research proposes the warning degree model of private highereducation investment risk, and verifies the validity of the model through empirical analysis. Themodel based on gray triangle whitening weight evaluation is the effective method to make the riskinvestment evaluation in private colleges, which can realize the whole assessment of private colleges’risk investment. The model based on the efficacy coefficient method is an effective way of privatecolleges’ investment risk warning, which can realize the risk warning in advance and offer help for theprevention of risk investment. Hence, the evaluation results can provide references for the investmentrisk warning, while risk warning is the extension of risk assessment. The two models complement andverify each other, and provide a complete method system for the analysis and warning of riskinvestment in private colleges. Moreover, they offer a diversified tool for the investment managementand risk warning research of private higher education.（4）Predict the trend of the investment environment of China’s private higher education and proposethe relevant investment countermeasures of private higher education. The forecasting results show that during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, seeing from the macro economic environment, thegovernment will provide a favorable external economic environment for the sustained and healthydevelopment of China’s private higher education. Seeing from investment policy environment, thegovernment will put forward the policy and regulation establishment of legal person system,autonomy in running colleges, preferential tax, and financial aid, and financial management,protection of teachers and students rights and so on. The policy and regulation system of privatehigher education will be further perfected. S Seeing from the enrollment situations, although the birthrate is declining, with the gross enrollment rate upgrading and expansion of enrollment, enrollmentscale and students’ quantity of China’s private higher education will have a substantial increase. Thestudents of private colleges are relatively abundant during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period. Seeingfrom the vocational trend of private higher education, diversified development and legally collegerunning are the current. Seeing from the investment potential of private colleges, the return rate ofinvestment will increase compared with that in the “11th Five-Year Plan” period. China’s privatecolleges will enter the combined phase of economic scale and connotation ascension. In the process ofrapid development, private colleges also face the pressure from the competition between publicuniversities and private colleges. Meanwhile, the whole college running levels are low and thecomprehensive competitiveness is weak, and the potential risks like sources of students, operation,management, policy and indeterminacy are obvious day by day. Therefore, the private colleges appearhere and there, and this situation will last for a certain period. Finally, from the view of improvinginvestment efficiency and strengthening the investment risk control, this research proposes theinvestment countermeasures that are suitable for the development status of China’s private highereducation, and provides beneficial references for China’s private higher education investment and riskmanagement.更多还原