论利率与通货膨胀

【作者】 宋飞；

【导师】 王东京；

【作者基本信息】 中共中央党校 ， 政治经济学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 目前权威的经济学教科书中,利率与存款准备金率、公开市场操作一并被作为货币政策的三大工具。同时,控制通货膨胀又是宏观经济政策的主要目标之一。因而长久以来,学术界有一种占主导地位的看法是中央银行可以通过提高“利率”对通货膨胀进行调控。本文研究认为,“利率”并不能作为央行的政策工具,央行也不能通过提高“利率”达到控制通货膨胀的目的。任何学术研究都是在前人研究的基础上起步的,因此为了展开对这个观点的论述,本文首先对有关利率与通胀的决定与形成机制、利率与通胀变动关系的研究文献进行了综述,并对有代表性的理论观点进行了评论。通过这些述评,作者认为费雪的人性不耐决定说与弗里德曼的货币供应量决定说最具说服力。故这两个学说成为了本论文重要的理论基础。在对中外相关文献分析之后,本文对利率的决定原因和形成机制做了深入的研究。作者对人性不耐的经济学涵义进行了进一步的分析,并对个人及社会整体不耐在利率形成中的作用做了描述。本文提出了贷方与借方剩余的概念,指出自然利率最终要使贷方剩余与借方剩余趋于相等。在明确了利率的根本决定因素之后,作者对费雪的收入与资本价值理论进行了补充,将资产提供的用于消费和积累的收入统一起来,总称为“广义收入流”。这样就把个人获得的收入与资产提供的收入统一了起来。随后,作者将人性不耐划分成了“消费不耐”与“投资不耐”,并分析了影响投资不耐的因素。笔者还提出了资产折现值吻合度模型,利用该模型说明了两种不耐对利率的决定作用。这样就增强了人性不耐决定说对现实问题的解释力。关于通货膨胀的成因和形成机制,本文讨论了货币供求与通货膨胀的关系,阐述了货币供应量增长加速后实际货币需求量与货币流通速度变化的机制,以及货币供应量增长率超过生产率增长的情况下一般价格水平的变化过程,从而明确了通货膨胀的成因在于货币的过量供应。作者还对货币政策时滞效应理论进行了扩充。阐明了研究货币政策时滞效应对分析通胀原因的作用,提出了“难免发生顺逆的差额”、“投资收益的不确定”、“现金与其他形式资产转换时的交易成本”、“货物流通中可变的交易成本”和“企业对收入增长原因的判断”等共同造成了货币供应增长加速后货币流通速度下降。同时,本文分析了闲置专门生产品重新投入生产增加可交易产品总量的可能性,从而补充了货币供应增长加速后产量变化的“缓冲机制”。在明确了利率与通胀各自的决定原因和形成机制之后,本文对利率变动与通货膨胀关系做了深入研究。在确定利率与通胀决定原因和形成机制不一致的基础上,推导出由市场调节的实际利率变动与货币供应变动没有必然联系。作者不仅从不耐角度解释了通胀时期实际低利率或负利率的原因,而且从利率变化对资金循环的影响,央行提高利率后商业银行的应对措施,提高利率对基础货币供应的影响,提高利率对货币乘数的影响等四个方面论证了人为提高利率反而不利于控制货币供应。通过对近十六年来利率与货币供应量增长率统计数据的分析,证明了不论是存贷款基准利率还是市场基准利率(以七日拆借利率代替)的变动均不能起到控制货币供应量的作用。这样就证明了利率变动不能起到调控通货膨胀的作用。本文还研究了提高利率影响生产加剧通胀的可能性。作者修正并完善了哈耶克的生产过程理论。在生产过程理论与吻合度模型相结合的基础上,对比分析了在由市场自发调节利率与脱离不耐提高利率两种条件下,生产过程结构变化趋势的差异。通过研究发现,脱离不耐提高利率将使产品总有效供给量相比利率由市场自发调节时降低。并且,在货币供应量持续过快增的条件下,这种负面影响可以被放大从而使通货膨胀更为严重。最后,本文总结了有代表性的国家和地区在治理通胀与利率调整方面的实践经验,并以此印证了前面章节所提出的观点。纵观全文,笔者主要在以下几个方面进行了创新：明确了利率与通胀的决定机制不相同；证明了市场自发调节时实际利率与货币供应没有必然联系；调高利率不能抑制或减少货币供应,得出了调高利率不能抑制通货膨胀的结论；从不耐角度对通胀时期实际低利率或负利率的讨论；对费雪的人性不耐决定说的修正与补充；对弗里德曼货币政策时滞效应理论的补充；对哈耶克生产过程理论的修正与补充；将生产过程理论与吻合度模型相结合讨论人为提高利率对生产的负面影响等。本论文的研究方法主要为：规范与实证分析、个体与总量分析、定性与定量分析、动态与静态分析等。在研究过程中,作者提出了一些概念,希望这些概念在今后能够应用于相关领域的研究中。这些概念包括：借方剩余、贷方剩余、广义收入流、投资不耐、资产折现值吻合度等。更多还原

【Abstract】 At present in the authoritative economics textbooks, interest rate, deposit reserve ratio and open market operations are treated as the three major tools of monetary policy. Meanwhile, to control the inflation is one of the main objectives of macroeconomic policy. Thus for a long time, the central bank can control inflation by rising "interest rate" is a dominant view in academia. But the research of this thesis hold the point that "interest rate" can not be the policy tool of the central bank and inflation can not be controlled by rising "interest rate".All academic researches are based on previous researches. So in order to discuss this point of view, this thesis gives an overview of the literatures about decision and formation mechanism of interest rate and inflation, the changing relationship between interest rate and inflation. And the thesis comments on representative viewpoints. Through the literature review, the author believes that Fisher’s theory that human impatience determines interest rate and Friedman’s theory that money supply determines inflation are most convincing. Thus these two theories are the theoretical basis of this thesis.After the analysis of related literatures both at home and abroad, the thesis researches deeply on the cause and the formation mechanism of interest rate.After the fundamental determinants of interest rate are ascertained, the author supplements Fisher’s theory of income and capital value, unifies the consumption income and accumulation income provided by assets and advances the concept of "generalized income stream". Thus this thesis unifies personal income and income provided by assets. Then, the author divides human impatience into "consumption impatience" and "investment impatience", and makes a brief analysis of the factors that influence investment impatience. The author constructs the model of goodness of fit of assets discounted value. Taking advantage of this model, the author fully demonstrates the decisive effect that the two kinds of impatience to the interest rate. Thus the explanatory power of the theory that human impatience determines interest rate is strengthened.In regard to the cause and the formation mechanism of the inflation, this thesis discusses the relationship between money supply&demand and inflation. The author illustrates the changing mechanism of the real money demand and the velocity of money after the increase of the growth rate of money supply, and the change process of general price level when money supply growth rate exceeds productivity growth rate. Thus the cause of inflation is excessive money supply is ascertained.The author also expands the theory of time-lag effect of monetary policy. The thesis illustrates the function of studying time-lag effect of monetary policy on explaining inflation cause. Then the author puts forward the "the inevitable surpluses and deficits","the uncertainty of investment returns","the transaction costs of converting between cash and assets in other forms","the variable transaction costs in the circulation of goods" and "enterprises’ judgement of the cause of the growth in income" together cause the velocity of money to drop in a short time after the growth of money supply is accelerated. Besides, this thesis analyses the possibility that idle specialized producer goods are put into production again can raise production output, thus adds the "buffer mechanism" of yield changing after the growth of money supply is accelerated.After the decisive factors and formation mechanisms of interest rate and inflation are respectively ascertained, this thesis researches thoroughly into the relation between interest rate change and inflation. Based on the decisive factors and formation mechanisms of interest rate and inflation are not identical, this thesis deduces that there is no necessary connection between the varation of actual interest rate adjusted by the market and the variation of money supply. The author not only interprets the cause of actual low or negative interest rate during inflation from the angle of human impatience, but also demonstrates that artificially raising interest rate would not help to control money supply from four perspectives:the influence of interest rates change on fund circulation, the corresponding measures adopted by the commercial banks after interest rates are raised by the central bank, the influence of raising interest rates on base money supply, the influence of raising interest rates on money multiplier. Through the analysis of statistical data of interest rates and money supply growth rates in16years, the author proves neither the RMB deposit and lending rates change nor the IBO007as a proxy of benchmark interest rate change can control the money supply. Thus this thesis proves that the variation of interest rate does not contribute to controlling inflation.This thesis also studies the possibility of exacerbating inflation from the angle of the production being affected on the account of interest rate is artificially raised. The author corrects and improves Hayek’s production process theory. Based on the combination of the production process theory and goodness of fit model, this thesis compares the variation of structural change production process when interest rate is regulated spontaneously by the market with it when interest rate is raised divorcing from human impatience. The result is that comparing with interest rate is decided by the market, total effective supply of product will decrease when interest rate is raised divorcing from human impatience. In addition, when the money supply continues to grow excessively, this negative effect will be enlarged, so as to make the inflation more severe.At last, this thesis summarizes representative countries’practical experiences in controlling inflation and interest rate adjustment. All of the practical experiences confirm the viewpoints advanced in preceding chapters and sections-in varying degrees.In summary, the author carries out innovation in the following aspects:First of all, the author confirms that interest rate and inflation’s determinant mechanisms are not identical, and there’s no necessary connection between actual interest rate and inflation under the condition of spontaneous adjustment of the market. Secondly, the author proves that raising interest rate can not restrain or reduce money supply, so it is not conducive to control inflation. Thirdly, the author discusses the actual low or negative interest rate in inflation period from the angle of human impatience. Fourthly, the author improves several classical theories, such as Fisher’s theory that human impatience determines interest rate, Friedman’s theory of delayed effect of monetary policy, and Hayek’s production process theory. Lastly, the author discusses the negative effect of raising interest rate artificially to production based on the combination of the production process theory and goodness of fit model.This thesis comprehensively adopts the methods of positive and normative research, micro and macro analysis, qualitative and quantitative analysis, static and dynamic analysis to study. In the course of the study, the author proposes some concepts, such as debit surplus, lender surplus, generalized revenue stream, investment impatience and goodness of fit of assets discounted value and so on. These concepts may be helpful to the research in related research fields in the future.更多还原