【作者】 任建四；

【导师】 吴冲龙；

【作者基本信息】 中国地质大学 ， 矿产普查与勘探， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 圈闭评价是油气资源评价中具体而重要的工作,其工作重点集中体现在对圈闭地质风险的准确评估上。随着科学技术的进步,各种探测和勘探技术对地下数据的获得带来有益的帮助,圈闭评价的准确性也相对提高。但随着油气的开采程度的增加,容易发现的构造特征明显的圈闭已经陆续发现,构造特征不是很明显的圈闭将难以准确地发现,油气勘探的风险在逐渐增加,也不利于国民经济的发展,勘探成熟区的新的油气圈闭的准确勘探的重要性逐渐被石油地质工作者所认识,对勘探成熟区的新的油气圈闭的勘探和预测已经成为油气资源评价领域的重点研究内容。目前在圈闭评价预测领域,多数圈闭评价是直接根据地质勘探数据,采用地质评价方法对圈闭进行分析和预测,这些评价方法能够比较直接的描述圈闭实际情况,但不能有效的动态分析圈闭的发展变化情况。在盆地及油气成藏模拟方面,模拟结果能够提供模拟区域的油气整体分布情况,基本上起到区带评价的作用,但对于圈闭级的评价,仍然需要根据盆地及油气成藏的模拟结果单独进行分析。目前的圈闭评价没有充分地利用盆地模拟的数据,更没有以油气成藏模拟结果为基础,需要重新设定参数、重新建模、重新组织数据,评价的准确性和有效性没有保证。以三维油气成藏动力学模拟结果为基础,建立圈闭定量综合评价系统,不仅可以获取大量与圈闭和成藏条件相关的静态参数,而且可以获取大量与圈闭及油气藏形成演化相关的动态参数,同时避免了重新组织数据所带来的完整性和一致性问题,从而可以减少人为影响,增强评价客观性,提高评价结果的可靠性和准确性。本论文在国家重大科学技术研究专项“大型油气田及煤层气开发——渤海湾盆地东营凹陷勘探成熟区精细评价示范工程”的资助下,以提高圈闭评价的准确性和方法的相对通用性为目的,在油气成藏模拟的基础上,对圈闭定量评价模式和评价方法方面开展了系统深入的研究,所做的主要工作和创新成果有：1、建立了基于油气成藏模拟的圈闭定量评价模型传统的圈闭评价都是石油地质专家在已有勘探资料的基础上进行分析和评价,也可以根据盆地及油气成藏模拟的结果对圈闭进行分析和评价。传统评价思路与油气成藏模拟无关或者与油气成藏模拟结合不紧密,对数据的利用效率相对较低。基于油气成藏模拟的圈闭评价能够对提高数据的利用效率,降低数据转换的损失,增强数据挖掘的程度,可以为圈闭定量评价提供更多且可靠的信息。现有的文献均没有建立在油气成藏模拟基础上的圈闭定量评价。论文的第二章说明了油气资源评价的层次及圈闭评价所处的重要层次和常用常规方法,研究了圈闭定量评价和油气成藏模拟的关系,建立了基于油气成藏模拟的圈闭定量评价模型。常规的圈闭评价主要是在具体的勘探资料的基础上,专家根据自己的知识对圈闭进行评价,这样的评价主观性较强,带来的风险也随之增加。在油气成藏模拟基础上的圈闭定量评价可以根据油气成藏模拟的数据,通过计算机数据处理和分析技术,得到圈闭级的数据,对圈闭进行定量的评价。在油气成藏模拟基础上的圈闭定量评价,可以有效地减少专家评价的主观性,得到比较客观的定量评价结果。现在没有具体的在油气成藏模拟基础上圈闭定量评价模式,需要根据实际情况建立具体的模型,然后才可以有效地完成后续的工作。在油气成藏模拟基础上的圈闭定量评价不同于传统的圈闭评价,其评价过程基本上都需要遵循模型中的核心步骤。盆地及油气成藏模拟是基础,必须满足圈闭定量评价的基本要求。三维地质建模的精度和计算机的运算能力要能够满足基本需求。圈闭搜索和圈闭信息识别是圈闭定量评价部分的基础,也可以在此基础上进行圈闭动态评价。在圈闭搜索和圈闭信息识别的基础上可以选用合适的方法进行圈闭地质评价、经济评价和综合评价,最后对结果进行有效地输出和显示。圈闭搜索和圈闭信息识别是在油气成藏模拟基础上的圈闭定量评价的核心步骤,与油气成藏模拟结合紧密的圈闭定量评价都需要实现这两个步骤。圈闭动态评价是重要特点和优势,可以对圈闭的动态变化趋势进行分析。地质评价、经济评价和综合评价和传统的评价不同之处在于其评价数据来源于圈闭信息识别的参数。2、实现了基于角点网格的圈闭搜索、圈闭信息识别和圈闭动态评价传统的圈闭评价的资料呈现在专家面前,没有圈闭搜索的需要。盆地及其油气成藏模拟的三维建模数据是海量的数据体,在巨大的三维空间数据中搜索圈闭数据本身就是一个复杂的工作。三维建模数据的精度和建模方式是圈闭搜索的基础要求,过于粗劣的建模对于盆地及油气成藏模拟或圈闭评价来说都是无效,精度过高计算机的性能不能满足实际需要。采用角点网格进行三维地质建模可以适应地质条件下的实际的不规则地质实体。角点网格是不规则六面体,增加了圈闭搜索的困难。由于精度的需要,角点网格也需要进行局部的加密,圈闭搜索的过程也需要对加密网格进行处理。圈闭信息识别主要是解决对圈闭信息的计算和提取的问题,涉及的参数比较多,计算方式各有不同,对技术要求也不一样。根据三维建模的实际精度、建模方式和已经搜索定位的圈闭,参考圈闭地质评价的圈闭条件、油源条件、保存条件、储层条件和匹配关系的基本地质要素,对圈闭信息进行计算和提取。由于各种条件的限制,部分参数可能不能完全满足实际的要求,可以根据对盆地及油气成藏模拟的数据,直接输入。常规的圈闭评价不具备圈闭动态评价的基本条件,只能靠专家进行人为的分析,给出发展趋势。通过对三维地质历史数据的研究和分析对比可以恢复圈闭的地质历史形态,从而进行圈闭的三维动态展示,便于对圈闭的发展变化情况进行有效地分析,判断圈闭的油气聚集和散失的情况是否符合实际的地质变化规律,有利于专家作出合理的判断。3、提出了圈闭定量评价对油气成藏模拟的反馈约束机制由于三维建模技术的限制和对计算机性能要求很高等原因,在油气成藏模拟的基础上进行圈闭级的定量评价比较困难。如果能够实现圈闭的定位和圈闭参数的获取,就更有利于分析整个油气成藏模拟过程。由于圈闭定量评价位于整个盆地及油气成藏模拟的末端,可以全面获得各种模拟数据,圈闭本身也可以提取很多数据,这样便可以对整个评价过程进行系统性的考虑。整个盆地及油气成藏模拟过程中,从三维地质建模到构造史、热史、生排烃和运聚史,考虑微观因素相对较多,对模拟过程的系统性和整体性约束不足。从圈闭提取数据和获得的模拟数据出发,通过对各个模拟阶段的数据和圈闭参数的分析,可以对整个盆地及油气成藏模拟的过程的合理性进行分析和反馈,形成对其模拟过程的约束。通过不断地反馈再模拟,直到形成合理的、整体上符合地质认识的评价结果,有助于对模拟过程的完善和模拟准确程度的提高。盆地及油气成藏模拟的各个阶段的模拟结果对最后的模拟结果都有较大的影响,油气运聚模拟是关键,对整个模拟结果的影响也最大,圈闭评价部分对其要求也比较高。4、分析了圈闭地质评价方法的特点和适用性在油气成藏模拟基础上的圈闭定量评价的数据来源、评价流程和方法完全不同于传统的圈闭评价,是全新的评价模式。地质评价的数据来源是圈闭信息识别的参数,地质评价的方法是现有的定量评价方法。在地质评价方法方面圈闭地质评价作为圈闭评价的关键内容,有很多的评价方法,其效果和适用性各不相同。圈闭地质评价是油气资源评价中比较具体的局部的工作,有其自己的特点和要求。在进行圈闭地质评价前需要选择适合的评价方法,以便于得到较好的评价效果。论文第三章对现有的主要地质评价方法进行了分析和对比,按照对数据的依赖程度进行了分类分析说明。5、实现了基于油气成藏模拟的圈闭定量评价系统在油气成藏模拟基础上的圈闭定量评价是完全不同于常规圈闭评价的新的评价理论体系,其评价数据主要来源于油气成藏模拟,其评价过程需要经过圈闭定位搜索、信息识别、动态评价、地质评价、经济评价和综合评价,根据评价结果找到最有利的圈闭,为预探提供指导。在基于油气成藏模拟的圈闭定量评价的理论指引基础上,建立圈闭定量评价模型,进行系统分析和设计,具体实现了基于油气成藏模拟的圈闭定量评价系统,对实现的基本流程和基本功能进行了说明。实现的主要技术要求是圈闭搜索、信息识别、动态评价和圈闭地质评价。圈闭搜索部分必须实现圈闭坐标的准确定位,划分出圈闭的具体范围。信息识别主要是在圈闭搜索定位的基础上对圈闭参数进行提取和计算。动态评价主要恢复圈闭的地质历史,动态显示其变化过程。圈闭地质评价部分采用了四种适合油气勘探成熟区域的评价法,分别是风险概率法、加权平均法、模糊综合评判法和人工神经网络法。各个方法各有优劣,可以对各个方法的评价结果进行分析对比,以便得到更为准确的评价结论。系统也实现了经济评价和综合评价,最后给出综合评价的结果。6、验证了基于油气成藏模拟的圈闭定量评价的有效性以中国东营凹陷牛庄-王家岗地区为典型原型,充分利用现有的盆地地质研究成果,在对牛庄-王家岗地区进行盆地及油气成藏模拟的基础上,综合分析地热演化和油气生成、排放、运移、聚集和逸散的模拟结果,对勘探程度较高的对牛庄-王家岗地区进行了模拟试验,所得出的圈闭位置和资源量都接近实际勘探结果,不但可以自动追索油气的聚集区域,还可以较为准确地区分出圈闭边界、圈闭基本类型和圈闭资源量。模拟结果验证了所建立的基于油气成藏模拟的圈闭定量评价模型的可靠性和所选用的地质评价方法的正确性。本论文的研究内容是对圈闭定量评价的模式一种新的探索,也是对盆地及油气成藏模拟的一种延伸。本文的主要创新之处是建立了基于油气成藏模拟的圈闭定量评价模型；实现了在三维地质模型下的圈闭自动搜索和圈闭的信息识别,自动确定圈闭的位置和坐标,对圈闭的评价参数进行计算和提取；通过对三维地质历史的恢复,可以对圈闭进行动态评价,展示圈闭的三维动态变化情况,便于对圈闭的发展变化情况进行有效地分析,判断圈闭的油气聚集和散失的情况：通过对所有模拟数据的分析和整合,提出对油气成藏模拟过程的反馈和约束机制,增强模拟过程的合理性,提高模拟结果的可靠性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Trap evaluation is a specific and important petroleum resource evaluation work and the work focuses on an accurate assessment of the geological risk. With the development of exploration technology, the underground data can be easier to be gotten and the accuracy of trap evaluation will be improved. However, with the increase in the degree of exploitation of oil and gas, a lot of structural traps have been found because they are obvious and it is difficult to find other traps. The increasing risk of oil and gas exploration is not conducive to the development of the national economy. Petroleum geology researchers recognize the importance of oil and gas exploration in mature exploration areas and exploration of new oil and gas traps in mature exploration areas will be the important content of the oil and gas resource evaluation.In the field of trap evaluation, the majority trap evaluation is directly based on the geological exploration data, the geological evaluation methods can be used for the analysis and prediction of traps. The actual situation of the traps can be directly described by these methods, but the development and changes of the traps can not be dynamically analyzed. The results of the basin and hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation can provide the regional distribution of oil and gas. The basin and hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation can play the role of the zone evaluation. However, the evaluation of traps still needs to be analyzed separately according to the results of the basin and hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation. The current trap evaluation is not based on hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation and the basin simulation data can not be sufficiently utilized. The parameters, model and data need to be reorganized. There is no guarantee about the accuracy and validity of the evaluation. There are many advantages about the comprehensive quantitative evaluation system of traps based on three-dimensional oil and gas accumulation dynamics simulation results. A lot of static parameters can be gotten and the parameters are associated with traps and accumulation conditions. A lot of dynamic parameters about traps and oil and gas reservoir formation and evolution can be gotten. Incompleteness and inconsistency because of the data reorganization can be avoided. The human impact can be reduced and the objectivity of the evaluation can be enhanced. The reliability and accuracy of the evaluation results can be improved.This paper is based on the National Science and Technology Major Project of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China named as large scale oil and gas field and coal gas development, a model engineering of fine evaluation of mature exploration prospect in Dongying Sag of Bohai bay basin. To improve the accuracy and versatility of the trap evaluation method, the research on trap quantitative evaluation models and evaluation methods are the main content and the research are based on hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation. The main work and innovations:1^A quantitative evaluation model of traps based on hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation has been establishedThe traditional trap evaluation is a kind of petroleum geological expert analysis and evaluation based on existing exploration data. The analysis and evaluation of traps based on basin and hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation results can also be done. Traditional ideas of evaluation are unrelated with the hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation or trap evaluation can not closely combine with the hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation and data utilization efficiency is relatively low. Data utilization efficiency can be improved if trap evaluation is based on hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation. The loss of data conversion can be reduced and the extent of data mining can be enhanced. More and reliable information can be provided for the traps quantitative evaluation. The quantitative evaluation of traps based on hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation can not be found from existing articles. The levels of the oil and gas resource evaluation and the key position of trap evaluation and the conventional methods have been explained in the second chapter. The links between the traps quantitative evaluation and oil and hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation have been studied. A quantitative evaluation model of traps based on hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation has been established. The conventional trap evaluation is one kind of evaluation by the experts based on their knowledge of the traps and the detailed exploration data. Subjective evaluation and great risk are the main problem about this kind of evaluation. Quantitative evaluation based on hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation can get the trap data and the result of quantitative evaluation by the data processing and analysis based on the data of hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation. The subjectivity of expert evaluation can be effectively reduced and more objective quantitative evaluation results can be gotten if trap quantitative evaluation is based on the hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation. A quantitative evaluation model of traps based hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation can not be found and the specific model must be established in accordance with the actual situation for the effective evaluation. Quantitative evaluation based on hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation is different with the traditional trap evaluation and the core steps of the model should be implemented. Basin and hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation are the base of the quantitative evaluation of traps. The results of basin and hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation must meet the basic requirements of quantitative evaluation of traps. Trap search and trap information recognition are the base of trap quantitative evaluation and dynamic trap evaluation can be done based on trap search and trap information recognition. Geological evaluation, economic evaluation and comprehensive evaluation can be achieved based on trap search and trap information recognition. The last step is the output and display of the evaluation results. Trap search and trap information recognition are the core steps of quantitative evaluation of traps based on hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation. Quantitative evaluation of traps combined with the hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation are needed to achieve these two steps. Dynamic trap evaluation is the important feature and advantage and the trend of trap dynamic changes can be analyzed. Geological evaluation, economic evaluation and comprehensive evaluation are different with the traditional trap evaluation because data of evaluation is from parameters of trap information recognition.2^Trap search, trap information recognition and dynamic trap evaluation based on corner-point grids have been achievedThe traditional trap evaluation do not need trap search because the experts can get the data of evaluation. Three-dimensional data model is a massive body of data and trap search is a difficult task in the gigantic three-dimensional spatial data. The accuracy and format of the three-dimensional model data are the basic requirements of trap search. The poor model is invalid for the basin and hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation or trap evaluation, but the computer’s performance can not meet the high precision needs. The three-dimensional geological model based on corner-point grids can adapt the irregular geological entity. Trap search is more difficult because comer-point grids are irregular hexahedral. The density of a part of grids should be increased for the high precision and the high density grid should be processed when the trap is searched. Calculation and extraction of the trap information are the key of trap information recognition for many different parameters, different calculation methods and technology requires. Trap condition, oil source condition, storage condition, reservoir condition, matching relation, the accuracy and format of the three-dimensional model data and the position of traps which have been searched are all the basic conditions for calculation and extraction of the trap information. Some parameters can be entered directly bacause some parameters may not be able to get for the limitation of model data. There is no dynamic trap evaluation in Conventional trap evaluation and the development trends of traps can be given by the expert analysis. The geological history of traps can be restored through research and analysis of three-dimensional geological history data. The three-dimensional dynamic display of traps based on the geological history of traps can display the development and changes of traps and the expert can evaluate traps through analysis of traps hydrocarbon accumulation and dissipation.3-. The feedback constraint mechanism of quantitative evaluation of traps to hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation has been ProposedQuantitative evaluation of traps based on hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation is difficult because the limitations of the three-dimensional model and computer performance. Analysis of hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation process is more conducive if the location and parameters of the traps can be determined. Various simulation data can be obtained and a lot of trap data can be extracted because quantitative evaluation of traps is in the end of basin and hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation. The evaluation process can be systematically considered because various simulation data and a lot of trap data can be gotten. There are many micro factors from the three-dimensional geological modeling to tectonic history, thermal history, hydrocarbon generation history, hydrocarbon expulsion history and migration and accumulation history. Simulation process lack systematic and holistic constraints. Rationality of basins and hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation can be analyzed and simulation process can be constrained for the feedback by the analysis of the data of simulation process and the parameters of the traps. The evaluation results will be reasonable and consistent with the geological understanding through multiple feedback simulation. The simulation process can be perfect and the simulation accuracy can be improved. The simulation results of the various stages of basin and hydrocarbon accumulation simulation have a greater impact on the final results of the simulation. Hydrocarbon migration and accumulation simulation is the key of the simulation and has the greatest impact on the final results of the simulation. Requirements of trap evaluation are relatively high to the hydrocarbon migration and accumulation simulation.4-. Characteristics and applicability of geological evaluation methods of traps have been analyzedQuantitative evaluation of traps based on hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation is a new evaluation model. Data sources, evaluation processes and methods are completely different with the traditional trap evaluation. The data source of geological evaluation is the parameters from the trap information recognition and the methods of geological evaluation are the existing methods of quantitative evaluation. As the key of trap evaluation, there are many evaluation methods about geological evaluation of traps, but the effectiveness and applicability are different. As a specific work of petroleum resource evaluation, the characteristics and requirements of geological evaluation of traps are different. In order to get the better effect of trap evaluation, suitable method must be selected before the geological evaluation of traps. The existing geological evaluation methods have been analyzed and compared in the third chapter and these methods are classified according to the data dependence.5、Quantitative evaluation system of traps based on hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation has been achievedQuantitative evaluation of traps based on hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation is a new system theory of evaluation and it is completely different with conventional trap evaluation. The data is mainly from hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation. Trap search, trap information recognition, dynamic trap evaluation, geological evaluation, economic evaluation and comprehensive evaluation are the main stages. The most favorable trap based on the evaluation results can be found and guidance for pre-exploration can be provided. Quantitative evaluation model of traps, system analysis and design and quantitative evaluation system of traps based on hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation has been achieved, according to the theoretical guidance of quantitative evaluation of traps based on hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation. The basic processes and functions have been described. Trap search, trap information recognition, dynamic trap evaluation and geological evaluation of traps are the main content. The positions and ranges of traps must be determined by trap search. The parameters of traps can be extracted and calculated by information recognition on the basis of trap search. Geological history of traps can be restored and the process of trap changes can be dynamically displayed by dynamic trap evaluation. Risk probability, weighted average, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and artificial neural networks are the geological evaluation methods. These methods are suitable for mature areas of the oil and gas exploration. Each method has its own advantages and shortcomings. More accurate evaluation results can be obtained by the analysis and comparison of the results of the various evaluation methods. Economic evaluation and comprehensive evaluation have been implemented and the final results of evaluation can be gotten.6、The validity of quantitative evaluation system of traps based on hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation has been confirmedNiuzhuang-Wangjiagang region is the mature region of exploration in china. Simulation experiments have been done in Niuzhuang-Wangjiagang. Geothermal evolution, oil and gas generation, emission, migration, accumulation and leakage have been simulated. The comprehensive analysis of simulation results and the proven geological results are consistent. The location of traps and the amount of resources are close to the actual exploration results. Trap boundary and trap type can be accurately obtained. The reliability of the model of quantitative evaluation based on hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation has been verified by the simulation results. The correctness of methods of geological evaluation has also been verified by the simulation resultsA new exploration about the model of quantitative evaluation of traps has been done in this paper and it is also an extension of basin and hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation. This paper has important innovations. A quantitative evaluation model of traps based on hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation has been established. Trap search and trap information recognition based on three-dimensional geological model have been achieved. Trap location and coordinates can be automatically determined. Trap evaluation parameters can be calculated and extracted. Dynamic trap evaluation can be achieved because geological history of traps" can be restored. Three-dimensional dynamic changes of traps can be dynamically displayed. Trap development and changes can be effectively analyzed and the situation of hydrocarbon accumulation and dissipation can be judged. The feedback constraint of hydrocarbon pool-forming simulation has been proposed by data analysis and integration. The rationality of the simulation process has been enhanced and the reliability of the simulation results has been improved.更多还原