【作者】 杨海洋；

【导师】 涂文涛；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 政治经济学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 经过近30年对制造业转移的承接,中国已经初步实现工业化,当前中国开始出现制造业逐步向外国际转移的情况。同时,第三产业是中国重点发展的行业,其比重提高较快,形成了第三产业过快发展与制造业向国际过快转移比重逐渐下降共存的局面。由于第三产业当中的金融、房地产等行业收益率高,吸引了资金从实体经济抽逃,加剧了服务业与制造业的此消彼长。如果对这一情况不加以纠正,势必造成服务业过高和以制造业为核心的实体经济过低的产业空心化的恶果,影响到中国经济的平稳增长。通过对2009～2010年的截面数据进行分析,可以看到金融危机爆发以来,制造业比重不同的国家在恢复的过程的表现也不一样。制造业产出占GDP较高的国家,如德国、中国、韩国、泰国等,经济恢复较快；而制造业产出占GDP较低的国家却较难走出经济衰退状态。特别是出现了产业空心化的美国、英国、法国、意大利等国,经济有二次探底的可能性。上世纪70年代后期,美国奉行新自由主义,国家逐渐减少了对经济的干预,其结果就是加剧了制造业的外移,制造业在美国各产业中的比重由1950年的30%下降到2004年的11%。德国承接上一轮产业转移,已经有了一百年以上的时间,但依然能够保持其制造业强国的地位,它的确有许多好的经验可供我国借鉴。这两个国家是本研究的重点样本。在这一背景下,本研究试图从以下几方面展开研究：一中找出制造业与经济增长之间的关系,证明制造业在促进经济增长方面存在着积极作用,二是找到制造业与经济波动之间的关系,证明制造业在防止经济出现波动以及减少经济周期波动损失和缩短恢复时间等方面有积极的作用：三是找出制造业国际转移的相关制约因素,找到防止中国制造业向外大量转移的办法；四是找到提高中国制造业总体水平的措施。本研究以马克思主义政治经济学中的经济周期理论、国际分工理论以及现代经济学的宏观经济增长理论、国际经济学理论等作为理论基础,包括经济增长的含义和经济增长的各种理论。主要论述了马克思主义政治经济学的经济增长理论、拉姆齐跨期可分效用函数、索洛——斯旺模型、凯斯——库普曼斯版本的均衡、阿罗和谢辛斯基的干中学理论、罗默内生增长模型、泽宇——卢卡斯模型、熊彼德的增长理论,另外,也对金融危机前西方国家流行的新自由主义宏观经济学进行了描述。制造业转移研究的理论也是本研究的重要理论基础。包括马克思主义的国际分工和国际贸易理论和其它贸易理论,国际产业转移理论也是重要的理论基础,如劳动密集型产业转移理论、产品生命周期理论、梯度转移理论、中心——外围理论、世界体系理论、雁行模式理论、边际产业转移理论等；技术扩散(外溢)理论等。在这些理论的基础上,本论文着重进行了两个方面分析,一方面是制造业对经济平稳增长作用的定性分析,这一部分是整个研究的核心。包括：(1)长期宏观经济问题即经济增长问题,研究在经济增长的各要素中制造业究竟有什么主要的作用,分别从制造业对劳动生产率的影响,制造业对技术进步的影响,制造业对人力资本形成的影响,制造业与资源的关系四个方面入手；(2)经济波动问题。一方面要找到制造业对经济周期的影响,另一方面要找到制造业在短期宏观经济问题中的作用,制造业的作用主要体现对就业的影响、对物价的影响、对国际收支的影响这几个方面。另外,在经济周期中,制造业起到了加快复苏,缩短经济下滑周期的重要作用；(3)制造业的其它作用分析,包括制造业与国家安全的关系,制造业与产业空心化问题的关系等；(4)制造业与其它产业的关系。包括制造业与农业的关系,制造业与服务业的关系,制造业的产业链作用等。指出必须保持各产业的协调发展,如果盲目发展第三产业而不注重制造业,第三产业就会成为无源之水。另一方面是实证分析。包括：(1)验证制造业对经济平稳增长所起到的重要作用。通过金融危机爆发以来的2009-2010年世界部分主要经济体的截面数据进行计量分析,验证了制造业产出占GDP的比重与经济复苏之间存在着显著的相关性；(2)美国制造业的情况分析。先叙述美国制造业的发展与美国经济增长之间的关系,再分析美国向外转移的基本情况以及制造业转移后美国经济的变化；(3)德国制造业的情况分析。先分析德国制造业发展的基本情况,再分析德国制造业对德国经济的影响,特别是着重分析80年代以后德国制造业继续保持较高比重的主要原因。对美国和德国正反两方面经验教训的总结,对中国来说有着重要的意义。在证明制造业对经济平稳增长有着不可替代的重要作用后,本论文还对制造业转移发生的条件进行了分析,一是制造业转移的原因与条件,包括制造业转移的动力分析,制造业转移应满足的条件,该部分还要对19452010年制造业转移的过程进行实证分析。验证了这些条件。二是中国制造业转移的可能性分析,分别是向东南亚和南亚转移的可能性分析,向非州转移的可能性分析,向南美州转移的可能性分析以及向其它地区转移的可能性分析,这些分析主要是找出中国在目前和未来所面对的潜在竞争对手,以便制定更有效的防止制造业移出的政策与措施。在以上研究的基础上,本论文提出了相应的对策。本研究认为：中国政府在决定未来产业发展方向时,应该通过相应的制度设计和政策指引,适当保持制造业在整个产业中的较高比重。使其产出占整个GDP的比例保持在25%-30%之间,第二产业总体的比例最终应该保持在30%-35%之间,适当降低采矿业和建筑业在第二产业中的比例,保持制造业产出在第二产业的比例接近和高于80%。在鼓励第三产业发展的同时,又要防止第三产业特别是虚拟经济的过份膨胀,第三产业的比例最终不应超过65%,第一产业要保持适度发展,但总体趋势是比例继续下降,最终产出占比在1%--5%左右。要想达到上述的产业结构调控目标,政府一方面要实现国内制造业优化升级,创造好的发展环境,市场机制和政府的宏观调控相结合,促进本土制造业向高端发展,保持中国制造业在国际上的竞争力；另一方面要防止虚拟经济的过度发展。既要利用和发挥好金融衍生工具在融资中的杠杆作用,同时也要防止金融衍生工具被滥用,控制其适当的规模。要通过制度设计,保证行业利润率的较小的级差,引导资金更多的流向实体经济；此外,政府还要做好对外投资的引导,干预国际并购,适度实施对内的产业保护措施,促进本土制造业由大变强,控制好制造业向外转移的节奏,防止产业空心化的发生。在具体的措施方面,本研究从制度设计、宏观面的条件支持和企业层面三个层次,提出了国家政策指引、国家税收减免和政府补贴、法律手段、贷款、社会保障措施、对外投资的规范与指引、加强基础设施建设、教育和职业培训、平稳转移农业人口、区域转移替代国际转移、抓住专利、技术标准和核心技术这些关键、不断提升产品质量、品牌塑造、扩大企业规模,形成规模效益等建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 China had already preliminary completed industrialization after nearly30years of undertake the transfer of manufacturing industry. The manufacturing industry of China began gradually transfer outward. At the same time, the proportion of tertiary industry is rising rapidly in China. The development of tertiary industry and international transfer of manufacturing industry to the fast the proportion to drop gradually coexistence. As a result of the tertiary industry among the financial, real estate and other industries with high yield, attracting capital from the entity economy withdrawing, exacerbated by the service industry and the manufacturing industry developing. If the case does not try to correct, will cause the service industry and high manufacturing industry as the core of the entity economy low industrial hollowing-out effect, influence Chinese economic growth.According to2009-2010cross-sectional data. We can find it that the proportion of manufacturing industry in different countries in the recovery process performance is not same after the outbreak of the financial crisis. The countries that manufacturing output for GDP is high, such as Germany, China, Korea, Thailand, economic recovered fast; and the countries that manufacturing output for GDP is low are more difficult to come out of the economic recession. Especially with the emergence of the United States of America Industry hollow, Britain, France, Italy and other countries, their economy get probably bottom again.Last century70*s period, the United States to pursue the new liberalism, the country gradually reduced in the intervention in the economy, the result is exacerbated by the manufacturing industry outside move, manufacturing industry in the United States in each industry proportion has dropped from30%in1950to11%in2004. Germany to undertake a move of round of industry, has been more than one hundred years, but is still able to maintain its manufacturing power, it does have a lot of good experience we can use for reference in china. The two countries are the focus of this study samples. Under the background, this study tried to find the following aspects:The first. finding out the relationship between manufacturing industry and the economic growth. Proving it that manufacturing industry is promoting economic growth in terms of the existence of a positive role. The second, to find out the relationship between manufacturing industry and economic fluctuation. proved to manufacturing industry have positive effect for prevent fluctuations in the economy and reduce economic periodic wave motion and shorten recovery time wait for a respect to:The third, to find out the related factors about international transfer of manufacturing industry, try to give some advise for prevent the Chinese manufacturing industry transfer outward. The last one is to improve the overall level of China’s manufacturing industry measures.This research based on Marxist political economics in the economic cycle theory, and the international division of labor and the theory of modern economics macroscopical economic theory, international economics theory as the theoretical basis, including economic growth and economic growth theory. Mainly discusses the Ramsay cross period can be divided into utility function, Solow--SWAN model, Keyes--Koopmans version of the equilibrium, arrow and Xie Xinsi base stem school theory, Luo Mo inside unripe growth model, Ze Yu--Lucas model, bear Peter’s growth theory, in addition to before the financial crisis, also popular in west countries the New Liberalism Economics are described. Manufacturing industry transfer theory is the important theoretical basis for the study of. Including the international industrial transfer theory, such as the transfer of labor-intensive industry theory, product life cycle theory, the theory of gradient transfer--, center periphery theory, world system theory, theory of mode of wild goose travel, marginal industry transfer theory; followed by the trade theory, including the theory of comparative advantage, HO resource endowment theory and factor intensity reversal, the monopoly advantage theory, internalization theory, the eclectic theory of international production, overlapping demand theory, increasing returns to scale, technology diffusion theory (overflow).On the basis of these theories, this paper focuses on the analysis of two aspects, one is the manufacturing of steady economic growth effect of qualitative analysis, this part is the core of research. Include:(1) long-term macroeconomic problem namely problem of economic growth, in the economic growth of all elements of the manufacturing industry what are the main role, respectively, from manufacturing to the influence of labor productivity, the manufacturing of the impact of advances in technology, manufacturing industry on the formation of human capital effect, manufacturing industry and the relation of resource in four aspects;(2) economic fluctuation problem, in the short-term and macroscopical economic problems, the manufacturing industry function is mainly reflected in the employment effects, effects on prices, balance of payments, effect on the economy is expected to affect these four aspects, together, form the manufacturing industry and economic cycle analysis of the relationship;(3) other action analysis of manufacturing industry, including manufacturing and national security, manufacturing industry and industry hollow problem such as the relation;(4) manufacturing industry and other industry relationship. Including manufacturing industry and agriculture, manufacturing industry and service industry, manufacturing industry chain effect.On the other hand is the empirical analysis. Include:(1) validation of manufacturing industry on the steady economic growth plays a vital role in. By the outbreak of the financial crisis of2009-2010world main economy section data undertakes metric analysis, validation of manufacturing output accounted for the proportion of GDP and economy anabiosis strong correlations exist between the;(2) the United States manufacturing situation analysis. First described in the United States the development of manufacturing industry and the United States the relationship between economic growth, and analysis of the United States the outward transfer of basic situation as well as the transfer of manufacturing industry of the United States after the economic changes;(3) the German manufacturing industry case analysis. The first analysis of German manufacturing industry development’s basic situation, then analysis of German manufacturing industry for the German economy influence, especially focuses on the analysis of80time later German manufacturing industry continues to maintain a higher proportion of main reason. The United States and Germany on two aspects of positive and negative experiences in China, it has important significance.In proof of manufacturing industry on the steady economic growth has an irreplaceable role, this paper also on the transfer of the manufacturing conditions of occurrence were analyzed, one is the transfer of manufacturing industry of the causes and conditions, including manufacturing transfer research, manufacturing industry is transferred shall meet the conditions, the part1945--Also on the in2010the transfer of the manufacturing process for empirical analysis. Verification of these conditions. Two of China’s manufacturing industry is the possibility of transferring analysis, respectively, to the Southeast Asia and South Asia the possibility of transferring to non state transfer analysis, feasibility analysis, South America transfer probability analysis to other areas and the possibility of transferring analysis, the analysis is mainly to identify Chinese in the present and the future are facing potential competitors, in order to develop more effective against manufacturing industry from the policies and measures.On the basis of the above research, this paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures. This research shows:the Chinese government in determining the future direction of industrial development, should adopt corresponding system design and policy guidance, to keep the appropriate manufacturing industry throughout the industry in a higher proportion of. The output for the entire GDP ratio is maintained at25%-30%, second industry overall ratio eventually should be maintained at30%-35%between, appropriate to reduce the mining and construction industry in the second industry in proportion, keep manufacturing output in the second industrial proportion close to and above80%. To encourage the tertiary industry development at the same time, but also prevent the tertiary industry especially of fictitious economy excessive expansion, the tertiary industry proportion eventually should not exceed65%, the first industry to maintain moderate growth, but the overall trend is the ratio continues to drop, the final output ratio in1%-5%. To achieve the goal of industrial structure regulation, the government on the one hand to achieve the domestic manufacturing industry is optimized upgrade, create a good environment for development, market mechanism and government macro-control combination, promote domestic manufacturing to high-end development, maintain the Chinese manufacturing industry in international competition; on the other hand to prevent virtual economy excessive development of. Should make full use of the financial derivatives in financing leverage, but also to prevent the abuse of financial derivatives, control the proper scale. Through system design, ensure industry profit margins smaller differential, direct funds more flow to the entity economy; in addition, the government should also do a good job of foreign investment guide, intervention in international M&A, moderate on the implementation of the protection measures within the industry, promote the local manufacturing industry from large to strong, good control of manufacturing industry transference of rhythm, prevent the industry is changed hollowly occurrence. In the specific measures, this study from the system design, the face of macro support and enterprise level three levels, put forward national policy guidelines, the national tax breaks and subsidies from the government, legal means, loan, social security measures, foreign investment regulation and guidance, strengthen infrastructure construction, education and occupation training, smooth transition agricultural population, regional metastases alternative international transfer, seize the patent, technology standard and core technologies of these key, improve product quality, brand, to expand the scale of enterprises, form dimensions benefit and proposal.更多还原