【作者】 刘君涵；

【导师】 姜凌；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 世界经济学， 2013， 博士

【副题名】基于两国经济发展战略调整的研究

【摘要】 本文要研究的中心问题是：全球金融危机发生后,中、美两国各自进行了经济发展战略的调整。这种调整会对中美经济共生关系产生何种影响?后危机时代中美经济共生关系的发展趋势如何?二十一世纪以来,在经济全球化和国际产业链分工的影响下,中美两国之间逐渐形成了一种经济共生关系。本文认为,中美经济共生关系是指,作为共生单元的中、美两国,在世界经济全球化这一宏观环境中,遵循“利己”而非“利他”的原则,按照既有的国际经济交往秩序、规则和惯例开展经济交流活动,而形成的相对稳定的互惠关系。这种共生关系的形成是一种自组织过程,它是中美两国按其内在经济发展规律而结成的必然联系,在共生关系的维系过程中产生新的共生能量,推动共生系统进化发展。从共生行为模式看,中美经济共生是典型的非对称互惠共生关系,在贸易和资本两个方面,美国都占据相对优势地位。中美经济共生关系的发生、发展及其模式主要由三大机制决定：即环境诱导机制、内生动力机制和共生阻尼机制。经过对中美共生机制的研究,本文认为,中美两国在发展阶段、产业结构和比较优势上的互补,以及以美元本位制为核心的国际货币体系这两大内在因素,是决定中美经济共生关系的内生动力。外在环境和共生界面的性质对两国经济共生关系发挥重要的影响作用。中美经济共生关系一方面带来了中、美两国以及世界经济的繁荣增长,另一方面也埋藏着失衡的隐患。从现象上看,中美经济的失衡表现为中、美两国经常账户的失衡和储蓄的失衡,反映在中美经济关系上,就是中美双边贸易关系的失衡和投资关系的失衡。从本质上看,中美经济失衡是中、美两国内部经济失衡的外在表现。其中,中美经济共生关系的非对称性助推了中美经济失衡。全球金融危机爆发后,中美经济共生关系面临调整。危机后,中、美两国政府都对各自的经济发展战略进行了大幅度的调整,调整的中心思想都是转变本国的经济发展方式。中国的经济战略调整主要包括五大方面：第一,扩大内需战略；第二,促进产业结构升级综合战略；第三,区域发展总体战略；第四,可持续发展战略：第五,更加积极主动的对外开放战略。美国的经济战略调整主要包括四大方面：第一,再工业化战略；第二,出口总额翻番战略；第三,新能源战略；第四,重视亚太的发展战略。美国的经济战略调整以增强控制力为目标导向,战略措施具有主动性的特点；中国的经济战略调整以拓展经济发展空间为目标导向,战略措施具有适应性的特点。通过对一系列经济指标的考察,本文发现,经过战略调整后的中美经济共生关系,相互依赖程度并未削弱。由于导致共生关系的内生动力并未发生根本变化,因此在可以预期的时期内中美经济共生关系还将会继续深化发展。导致危机前两国经济共生关系严重失衡、难以维系的根源不是两国经济的相互依赖本身,而是这种依赖关系的非对称性。当前两国经济发展战略的调整政策有利于修正这种共生关系的非对称性。但是,中美共生关系对称性的修正更多地体现在贸易领域,资本领域非对称性的改善不够明显,难度也更大。这是由以美元为国际本位币的国际货币体系所决定的。只要当前的国际货币体系不发生根本变化,中美经济共生关系在资本领域的非对称性就很难修正。两国经济发展战略调整对中美经济共生关系的影响,除了使非对称性得到一定程度的修正外,还主要表现在两个方面：一是围绕新能源领域的合作与竞争；二是在亚太经济合作范围内对共生环境的改变。这两个方面都表明：中、美共生体既有深化合作的利益与空间,又有竞争趋于复杂化激烈化的可能。随着共生进化愈加向对称性方向发展,共生单元之间的竞争将会愈加激烈,但同时也意味着共生单元之间的相互依赖程度更深。一旦双方在竞争中超越共生性底线,则可能导致共生退化。相互依赖关系越紧密,双方的退出成本就越大。根据复合相互依赖理论,由于中美经济共生关系的非对称性,中国对美国依赖更大,因而中国面临的退出成本也更高。因此中美经济共生关系健康发展符合中、美两国的利益,更是中国持续稳定发展的重要前提。为了推动中美经济共生关系健康发展,中国需要做到：第一,继续改善中美共生关系的非对称性；第二,加强中美经济政策协调；第三,对中美关系建立常态化机制化管理,增进战略互信。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the influence of economic globalization and international division of labor, a symbiosis has been gradually formed between China and the US in the economic realm since the late1970s. This dissertation argues that the Sino-US economic symbiosis is a relatively stable and mutually beneficial relationship. China and the US, as two symbiotic units in this relationship, have begun to conduct the bilateral economic activities following the principle of egoism rather than altruism, which were in accordance with existing international economic orders, rules and practices. The formation of the symbiosis is a self-organizing process, which is an inevitable economic connection between China and the US due to the inner necessities of economic development for both countries. The maintenance requirement of the symbiotic relationship constantly produces new energy to promote the evolution of the symbiotic system.The Sino-US economic symbiosis, classified by the symbiotic behavior patterns, is a typical asymmetric mutualism. The US occupies the dominant position in both trade and capital realms. The occurrence, development and pattern of the Sino-US economic symbiosis are mainly determined by three mechanisms: environmental induction mechanism, endogenous power mechanism and symbiotic damping mechanism. Through my research on the symbiotic mechanisms, I argue that two internal factors determine the endogenous vitality of Sino-US economic symbiosis:one factor is the complementation of the two countries in terms of the stage of economic development, industrial structure and comparative advantage; the other is that the international monetary system has the US dollars as the dominant currency. External environment and the nature of the symbiotic interface also play important roles in the bilateral economic symbiosis.On the one hand Sino-US economic symbiosis has brought about the economic prosperity of China and the US as well as the growth of the world economy; but on the other hand it has led to the problem of economic imbalances. Apparently, the Sino-US economic imbalance exhibits the phenomena of bilateral trade deficit, savings rate difference and investment disproportion. In essence, the Sino-US economic imbalance is the external display of the two countries’internal economic disequilibrium, which is boosted by the asymmetry of Sino-US economic symbiosis. As a result, the Sino-US economic symbiosis had to be adjusted especially after the international financial crisis because of the imbalanced relationship of two countries.Since after the crisis, China and the US have been conducting substantial adjustments with different economic strategies, concerning essentially with transformation of the patterns of economic development.The adjustments of China’s economic strategies mainly include five aspects: First, the strategy of expanding domestic demand; Second, the strategy of upgrading the industrial structure; Third, the strategy of coordinating regional development; Fourth, the strategy of sustainable development; Fifth, the more proactive opening-up strategy. The adjustments of the US economic strategies are as follows:re-industrialization strategy, total exports doubled strategy, new energy strategy, and Asia-Pacific development strategy.The strategies of the US have the characteristics of initiatives, aiming to enhance the economic control mechanism. As China is concerned, its strategy measures adaptive characteristics, aiming to expand the economic development space.Based on the research on a series of economic indicators, this dissertation finds out that the interdependency of the Sino-US economic symbiosis has not been weakened after above-mentioned adjustments. Due to the endogenous vitality of the symbiosis is not fundamentally changed, the development of the Sino-US economic symbiosis will continue to be vibrant for the foreseeable future. It is the asymmetry of the symbiosis that leads to the Sino-US economic imbalances, but it is not the symbiosis itself. The development strategy adjustments carried out by the two countries would be conductive to correct this asymmetry. However, this correction would be more embodied in trade sphere rather than in capital sphere because of the supremacy of the US dollars in the current international monetary system. In addition to the partial correction of the asymmetry, the influence of the economic development strategy adjustment is mainly manifested in two aspects: one is their cooperation and competition in the field of new energy and the other is the changes of symbiotic environment in the Asia-Pacific economic cooperation. This indicates that China and the US have common interests with the more opportunities for cooperation. But the relationship between them will be more complicated with increasing competition as well. As the symbiotic evolution become more symmetric, the competition between the symbiotic units will be more intensified, although it also means the increasing interdependence between both units. Once one side in the intensified competition challenges the bottom line of the other side, the symbiosis may be degraded or even destructed.The more the interdependence is, the greater exiting cost each side has. Given the asymmetric relationship in the symbiosis, China depends more on the US, thus China’s exiting cost is higher according to the complex interdependence theory. The healthy development of the Sino-US economic symbiosis conforms to the common interests of the two countries, which is also an important premise of China’s stable and sustainable development. In order to promote the healthy development of the Sino-US economic symbiosis, the following strategies are important for China:first, continue to correct the asymmetry of the symbiosis; second, strengthen economic policy coordination of the two countries; third, establish the Sino-US normalized management mechanism to foster the mutual trust.更多还原