【作者】 田时中；

【导师】 赵鹏大； 田家华；

【作者基本信息】 中国地质大学 ， 资源产业经济， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 煤炭是我国一次能源消费的主体,近些年,我国煤炭在能源消费中的比重约占70%,并有上升的势头。当前能源需求与能源供应的矛盾日益凸显,增加了国家能源压力。统计显示,我国能源消费量占世界能源消费总量的10.4%,世界第二。巨大的能源消费带来能源供应不足问题,随之而来的是油价、煤价逐年攀升,甚至一度出现油荒、煤荒、电荒。2002年、2003年、2004年连续三年多数城市出现电荒,不得己实行拉闸限电；2009年武汉、哈尔滨等地出现严重的气荒。过去相当长时间里,中国人常以人多地广、资源丰富、地大物博自居。但是,煤炭资源的稀缺性、不可再生性决定其数量、质量逐年下降,煤炭供需安全问题凸现。煤炭安全问题成为不可忽视的国家非传统安全战略内容之一。对煤炭供需安全问题的研究具有极其重要的意义。本文的研究主要解决以下问题：煤炭供需安全研究的理论基础;煤炭供需安全实证评价；煤炭供需形势预测；煤炭供需安全预警;维护煤炭供需安全的对策建议等。因此,全文围绕煤炭供需安全问题展开,重点探讨我国煤炭供需安全度测算和煤炭供需预测、预警问题。研究内容主要包含以下几个方面：(1)煤炭供需安全问题基础理论的研究。资源安全是国家安全的重要组成部分。资源安全与经济安全紧密关联,资源安全对国家安全具有重要的战略意义,研究煤炭资源安全,特别是对煤炭供给与需求安全的研究,对于维护国家经济安全具有重要的现实意义。对资源安全理论的研究包括对资源安全进行界定和分类,分析资源安全的影响因素,论述资源安全对于国民经济发展和社会进步的重要性,指出煤炭供需安全的研究内容。对资源稀缺理论进行系统阐述,包括对资源稀缺性的解释,全面阐述了三大稀缺理论,即马尔萨斯的资源绝对稀缺论、李嘉图的资源相对稀缺论和约翰·穆勒的静态经济论。分析经济学供需理论,对经济学供需理论发展历程进行梳理,从市场、供给和需求的角度对微观经济学的供需理论进行分析,绘制煤炭供给曲线、煤炭需求曲线以及煤炭供需变动曲线。阐述可持续发展理论,对可持续发展思想的产生、可持续发展理论的内涵进行分析,阐述了资源永续利用理论、外部性和公共物品理论、财富代际公平理论和三种生产理论,对煤炭可持续供需问题进行初步探讨。(2)对我国煤炭供需现状的研究。煤炭是支撑重工业发展,关系到国民经济全面、协调、可持续发展的基础能源。对我国煤炭供需现状的研究包括分析我国煤炭供给现状,如煤炭资源分布;煤炭生产态势如生产基地分布和煤炭产业布局；煤炭产量呈现稳步增长的势头。对我国煤炭需求现状的研究包括煤炭需求地点分布,如环渤海经济圈、长三角经济圈和珠三角经济圈；煤炭需求行业分布；我国GDP与煤炭消费量的线性相关性分析。对我国煤炭供需存在的问题的分析如煤炭供需关系变动频繁、煤炭供需地域逆向分布、煤炭供需受运输瓶颈制约、煤炭生产安全及消费安全问题亟待解决。(3)对我国煤炭供需安全的实证评价。对煤炭供需安全度进行定量评价,首先分析我国煤炭供需安全的影响因素。然后依据煤炭供需安全影响因素构建煤炭供需安全评价指标体系,包括确立指标体系构建的原则,通过对评价指标进行优选构建评价指标体系,对评价指标含义进行解释。接着确立我国煤炭供需安全评价方法,具体介绍本论文主要运用到的四种方法：熵值法、层次分析法、灰色关联分析法和TOPSIS综合评价模型。最后,对我国煤炭供需安全进行TOPSIS评价。通过收集评价指标数据并进行计算,确立评价指标权重,进行加权规范化决策矩阵计算和依据方案贴近度进行综合评价,计算出2008-2011年我国煤炭供需安全度,依据我国煤炭供需现实对评价结论进行了系统分析。(4)对我国煤炭供需预测及价格走势的分析。对我国煤炭供给进行预测分析,概述我国煤炭供给特点,研究表明我国煤炭产量平稳增长、煤炭企业生产成本显著上升、煤炭产业投资快速增长、煤炭净进口总量稳步上升；介绍灰色GM(1,1)模型；对我国煤炭供给进行灰色GM(1,1)预测。然后对我国煤炭需求形势进行预测,概述我国煤炭需求特点；介绍NAR模型,并运用该模型对我国煤炭需求形势进行预测。最后对我国煤炭价格走势进行分析和预测,分析了当前我国煤炭及工业品的价格走势；依据CR价格指数绘制了我国动力煤、炼焦煤和焦炭的价格走势图；对我国煤炭价格进行了短期和中长期预测。(5)对我国煤炭供需安全预警的分析。探讨煤炭供需安全预警问题,首先分析煤炭供需安全预警的意义。包括对煤炭供需安全预警和预测的区别的分析,对煤炭供需安全预警的重要意义进行阐述。接着全面阐述煤炭供需安全预警系统。包括对煤炭供需周期波动的分析,对煤炭供需安全预警思路的阐述以及对煤炭供需安全预警方法的比较分析。最后对煤炭供需安全预警系统的运行进行实证分析。包括确立煤炭供需安全预警警度、对煤炭供需安全预警警度的建议和分析、以及煤炭供需安全预警的模拟。通过比较分析,可以看出,煤炭供需安全预警警度检验与TOPSIS方法测算的2008-2011年我国煤炭供需安全度一致,结果表明,我国煤炭供需形势越来越严峻,需要采取措施,保障煤炭供需安全。通过较为系统的研究,本论文得出的基本结论包括：(1)提出了煤炭供需安全问题研究思路和理论依据。在综合分析国内外能源安全研究的基础上,提出了本文的研究思路和分析框架。研究表明,石油资源安全研究成果可以作为煤炭供需安全问题研究的参考资料,部分定量分析方法可以运用到本论文的研究中来。研究煤炭供需安全问题主要围绕煤炭的供给和需求两个方面展开,因此,本文主要集中于对我国煤炭供需形势进行分析、对我国煤炭供需安全进行实证评价、对我国煤炭供需形势及价格走势进行分析和预测、探讨我国煤炭供需安全预警系统。在理论基础的研究上,系统分析了煤炭供需安全的基础理论,即资源安全理论、资源稀缺理论、经济学供需理论和可持续发展理论。(2)通过定性分析,筛选出煤炭供需安全评价指标,并构建我国煤炭供需安全评价指标体系。我国煤炭供需安全影响因子包括四个方面,即资源因素、市场因素、经济因素和社会因素。筛选出16个评价指标分别是基础储量、储采比、储量接替率、供需增速比、自给率、替代能源占能源消费量的比重、进口量占消费量比重、煤炭与石油价格比、铁路运输能力、煤炭消费弹性系数、单位GDP煤耗比、投入产出比、原煤入选率、CO2排放量、百万吨煤死亡率和城镇化率。(3)通过TOPSIS综合评价,计算出我国煤炭供需安全度。运用熵值法、层次分析法、灰色关联分析法计算出2008-2011年我国煤炭供需安全评价指标权重和排序,运用TOPSIS综合评价法,计算出2008-2011年我国煤炭供需安全度,以此来反映我国煤炭供需安全状况。结果表明,2008-2011年我国煤炭供需安全度为C+={0.4265,0.4118,0.6020,0.5678}.我国煤炭供需安全度排序为：C2010>C2011>C2008>C2009。(4)运用灰色GM(1,1)模型、VAR模型和CR价格指数,对我国煤炭供需形势进行预测,分析价格走势,绘制煤炭价格走势图,对煤炭价格进行初步预测。研究表明,到2020年我国煤炭产量约为537927.6402万吨标煤,煤炭需求量约为583064万吨标煤,煤炭供不应求。煤炭价格短期预测变化幅度不大,预测2013年动力煤和焦炭价格指数上涨幅度基本一致,略小于7.77%的水平(分别达到179.268点和163.067点),炼焦煤价格指数年均上涨幅度略高于7.77%的水平(约为595.598点)。全年煤炭价格指数平均上涨幅度为7.77%。我国煤炭供需形势比较严峻,需要国家宏观调控。(5)对煤炭供需安全预警警度进行检验。通过对煤炭供需安全预警系统的分析,建立了煤炭供需安全预警评价指标体系,确立了煤炭供需安全预警警度,选取2008-2011年间的相关数据,进行预警警度检验,检验结果与TOPSIS综合评价结果一致,表明本文所设置的煤炭供需安全评价和安全预警指标体系具有科学性和可行性。煤炭供需形势越来越不安全,需要采取措施维护我国煤炭供需安全。更多还原

【Abstract】 In China,the coal is primary energy consumption recently,which accounts for about70%of total energy consumption,we think that will rise.The problem that energy demand and energy consumption and energy supply is coming,which increase the pressure of china.Statistics show, China energy consumption accounts for the world total energy consumption10.4%, second in the world.The huge energy consumption and energy supply problems, followed by oil prices, coal prices rose year by year, and even once a shortage of oil, coal, electricity.In2002,2003,2004for three consecutive years the majority of city electricity, may not have blackouts in2009; Wuhan, Harbin and other places gas shortage serious.In the past,we thought we have abundant resources and people, vast territory and abundant resources.However, the coal resource scarcity, non-renewable nature of the quantity, quality decreased year by year, highlights the supply and demand of coal safety problems.Coal mine safety problem has become one of the countries that can not be ignored in non-traditional security strategy content. Study on the safety of coal resources supply and demand have very important significance.The paper will solve the following problems:the theoretical basis of coal resource supply security of supply and demand of the coal resources safety;evaluation;forecast the situation of supply and demand of coal resources; coal resource supply security early warning; maintaining the safety of coal resources and countermeasures.Therefore, by focusing on the safety of coal supply and demand issues, focusing on the supply and demand of China’s coal resources arrangement degree calculation and coal resources supply and demand forecasting, early warning.The main contents of this paper include the following:(1)Research on the basic theory of supply and demand of the coal resources safety issues.Resource security is an important part of national security.Resource security is closely related to and economic security, and it’s an important strategic significance for national security, the research of coal resources safety, especially on the supply and demand,was important practical significance for the maintenance of national economic security.Research on resource security theory including the definition and classification of resource security, analysis of the factors influencing the resources security, discusses the importance of resource security for the national economic development and social progress, points out the research content of safety of coal resource supply and demand.Description of the system of resource scarcity theory, including resource scarcity, comprehensively expounds three scarcity theory, Malthus’s absolute scarcity of resources, the static economic scarcity of resources on Ricardo and John theory of Muller.The analysis of the supply and demand theory of economics, to sort out the development process of the supply and demand theory of economics, to analyze the microeconomic theory of supply and demand, supply and demand from the market perspective, drawing coal supply curve, coal demand curve and the coal supply and demand curve.On the theory of sustainable development, the connotation of sustainable development analysis theory, the idea of sustainable development, the sustainable use of resources theory, externality and public goods theory, intergenerational equity theory and three kinds of production theory, sustainable supply of coal issues discussed.(2) Research on the present situation of supply and demand of coal resources in china.The coal resource is supporting the development of heavy industry, related to the basic energy national economy overall, coordinated, sustainable development.Research on the present situation of supply and demand of coal resources in China including the analysis of the present situation of coal resources supply in China, such as the distribution of coal resources; coal resources situation of production such as production base distribution and the layout of the coal industry; coal production showed a steady growth momentum.The research status of coal demand in China including coal demand location distribution, such as the Bohai economic circle, the economic circle of Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta economic circle; coal industry demand distribution; linear correlation analysis of China’s GDP and coal consumption.On the analysis of supply and demand of coal resources in our country the problems such as the coal supply and demand relations changes frequently, the supply and demand of coal, coal supply and demand of regional reverse distribution by the transportation bottleneck, the safety of coal production and consumption safety problems.(3)The empirical evaluation of the security of supply and demand of coal resources in China.Quantitative evaluation of security of supply and demand of coal resources, influence factors analysis of supply and demand of coal resources safety first in China.Then build the supply and demand of the coal resources safety evaluation index system according to the factors of safety of coal resources supply and demand effects, including the establishment of the principle of the index system, the evaluation index for optimization of building evaluation index system, to explain the meaning of evaluation index.Then establish the supply and demand of coal resources in China safety evaluation method, four methods are introduced in this paper mainly applies to:entropy method, AHP, grey relational analysis and TOPSIS comprehensive evaluation model.Finally, the TOPSIS evaluation of the security of supply and demand of coal resources in China.Through the collection of evaluation index data and calculation, the establishment of evaluation index weight, weighted normalized decision matrix comprehensive evaluation calculation and according to the scheme of press close to, calculate the2008-2011supply and demand of Chinese coal resources safety, according to Chinese coal supply and demand of evaluation results are analyzed. (4) Research on the prediction of the supply and demand of coal resources in China and the trend of price.Prediction and analysis of Chinese coal resources supply, an overview of Chinese coal resources supply characteristics, research shows that the production cost of coal enterprises coal production in China increased significantly, steady growth, rapid growth, coal industry investment has steadily increased total net imports of coal; the gray GM (1,1) model; grey GM(1,1) coal in our country supply prediction.Then carried on the forecast to the situation of coal resources demand in China, outlines the characteristics of Chinese coal demand; introduce NAR model, and uses this model to predict the situation of coal demand in china.Finally, to analyze and forecast the price trend of coal resources in China, analyzed the current situation of Chinese coal and industrial product prices; on the basis of CR price index to draw our power coal, coking coal and coke prices; the short-term and long-term prediction of coal price in china.(5) Research on the supply and demand of Chinese coal resources safety warning.Discussion on coal resource supply security early warning problem, first analyzes the supply and demand of the coal resources safety warning significance.Analysis of supply and demand of the coal resources including security early warning and forecasting, elaborates the importance of coal resource supply security early warning.Then a comprehensive exposition of the coal resource supply security early warning system.Including the analysis of the coal supply and demand fluctuations, the coal supply and demand of security early warning analysis and comparative analysis of the supply and demand of coal safety early warning method.Finally, the demand for coal supply security early warning system of empirical analysis.Including the establishment of the supply and demand of coal safety warning degree, for advice and analysis, the supply and demand of coal safety warning degree and the supply and demand of coal safety early warning simulation.Through the comparative analysis, we can see, the supply and demand of coal safety warning degree test and TOPSIS method to calculate the2008-2011supply and demand of our country coal safety degree is consistent, results show that the coal supply and demand situation in our country, more and more serious, need to take measures, guarantee the safety of coal supply and demand.By the systematic research, the basic conclusions of this paper include:(1) Put forward the supply and demand of coal safety problem research ideas and theoretical basis.Based on the comprehensive analysis of domestic and foreign energy security, put forward the idea of this research and analysis framework.Research shows that, oil can be used as a result of resources security studies on coal supply and demand security reference, analysis of some quantitative can be applied to the research of this thesis.Security of supply and demand of coal resources mainly centers on two coal resources supply and demand aspects, therefore, this paper focuses on the supply and demand situation of Chinese coal resources analysis, empirical evaluation of security of supply and demand, Chinese coal resources of Chinese coal resources supply and demand situation and price trend analysis and forecast of supply and demand, Chinese coal resources safety early warning system.In the theoretical basis of the research on the basic theory of security, system analysis of supply and demand of the coal resources, namely resources safety theory, resource scarcity theory, supply and demand theory of economics and the theory of sustainable development. (2) Through the qualitative analysis, screening out the safety evaluation index of coal supply and demand, supply and demand of coal resources in China and the construction of safety evaluation index system.Safety factors of supply and demand of coal resources in China includes four aspects, namely resources factors, market factors, economic factors and social factors.Selected16indexes,production rate, supply and demand increasing ratio, self-sufficiency rate, alternative sources of energy accounted for the proportion of energy consumption, imports accounted for the proportion of coal consumption, with oil prices, the railway transport capacity, elasticity coefficient, coal consumption per unit GDP consumption ratio, input and output rate of selection, CO2emission weight, mortality million tons of coal and the urbanization rate, coal reserves than, than to succeed.(3)Through the comprehensive evaluation of TOPSIS, calculate the supply and demand of Chinese coal resources safety.The use of entropy method, AHP, grey relational analysis method to calculate the2008-2011supply and demand of coal resources in China security evaluation index weights and sorting, using TOPSIS comprehensive evaluation method, to calculate the2008-2011supply and demand of Chinese coal resources safety, in order to reflect the supply and demand situation of Chinese coal resources.The results show that,2008-2011security of supply and demand of coal resources in China is C+={0-4265,0.4118,0.6020,0.5678}. The order in China:C2010> C2011> C2008> C2009.(4)Forecast the situation of supply and demand of coal resources in China, analysis of price trends, drawing the coal price trend chart by the grey GM (1,1) model, VAR model and CR price index, and preliminary forecast of coal price.Research shows that, China coal output is about5379276402tons in2020, coal demand is about5830640000tons, coal is in short supply.The variation is small coal price forecast, forecast the power coal and coke price increases are basically the same in2013, slightly less than the level of7.77%(respectively179.268and163.067), the level of coking coal price index rose an average amplitude is slightly higher than the7.77%(about595.598).The annual coal price index rose an average rate of7.77%.The coal supply and demand situation is fairly severe in China, we must control it.(5) We test the supply and demand of the coal resources safety warning degree.Through the analysis of the demand and supply of coal resources safety warning system, established the supply and demand of coal safety early warning evaluation index system, established the supply and demand of coal safety warning degree, select the relevant data during2008-2011, are warning degree test, test result is consistent with TOPSIS evaluation, safety evaluation showed that the supply and demand of the coal resources in this setting and safety early-warning index system is scientific and feasible.Coal supply and demand shows more and more unsafe, need to take measures to protect the security of supply and demand of coal resources in china.更多还原