【作者】 刘中虎；

【导师】 王德祥；

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 ， 财政学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 现代税制起源于19世纪末,已经历了100多年的发展历程。税制结构的变动轨迹表明,一国税制结构在很大程度上取决于该国的经济发展水平,而经济发展水平与相关制度的完善又为税制结构变动提供了基础条件,并且会逐渐成为税制结构变动的推动力量。另外,税制结构的调整和优化也会更好地促进经济社会的发展,提高经济运行的公平与效率水平。税制结构问题同样是我国税制改革的焦点。1994年分税制改革形成的税制结构虽然几经调整,但仍与快速发展的宏观经济不相适应。“十一五”期间,我国先后取消了农业税、实行了内外资企业所得税两税合一、提高个人所得税免征额以及增值税由生产型向消费型的转型,这些税制结构的调整有力地促进了我国国民经济的健康发展和产业结构的优化。但是,目前作为我国第三大税种和地方第一大税种的营业税存在着突出的问题和矛盾。因此,在《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划的建议》第四十二条加快财税体制改革中明确提出“扩大增值税征收范围,相应调减营业税等税收,合理调整消费税范围和税率结构,完善有利于产业结构升级和服务业发展的税收政策”的改革和规划。在这样一个具有战略性指导意义的规划里,中央提出了调减营业税的建议,同时要求扩大增值税征收范围作为关联方法,这为以后的营业税发展改革指明了方向。在实践层面,从2012年1月1日起已开始在上海市的交通运输业和部分现代服务业实施营业税改征增值税(以下简称“营改增”)的试点。从性质上看,增值税和营业税是我国最重要的两种流转税,从数量上看,增值税和营业税相加占到了我国总体税收的近一半,因此,营业税改增值税的意义至关重要。营业税并入增值税、由价内税转变为价外税、建立合理的税率和征管制度,可以说是我国“十二五”期间税制改革的重点和主线。因此,科学合理地实施“营改增”,对我国经济社会的健康发展具有重要意义。“营改增”的宗旨是优化税制结构,更好地满足经济社会发展的要求。而我国目前营业税和增值税并存的税制结构,既损失了效率又不利于公平。本文在梳理我国税制结构的变迁历史后,探讨“营改增”背后的驱动力量和现实迫切性,分析“营改增”的经济效应,并对“营改增”的改革历程和措施进行展望,这些研究可以为我国税制结构及营业税改增值税科学、合理的设计提供理论依据,为改革的推广和深化提供参考。本文共分为四个部分：第一部分引言。主要分析论文的研究背景与研究意义,归纳和总结国内外相关研究文献,简要介绍研究方法、研究思路以及文章的创新和不足。第二部分理论框架,主要是为“营改增”改革的必要性提供实践与理论支撑。在我国税制结构变动的背景下,指出我国以间接税为主体的税制的缺陷,重点分析增值税和营业税并存的缘由及由此带来的一系列问题。第三部分经验分析。包括第3章、第4章和第5章。主要对“营改增”的经济效应、产业结构效应、福利效应和税负效应进行定性和定量判断,对前面的理论分析进行验证。第四部分对策与建议。包括第6章、第7章和第8章。主要分析现行“营改增”试点方案对企业税负和各级财政收入的影响,结合“营改增”试点中取得的成效与问题,在深入分析和借鉴国际经验的基础上,从扩围路径、税率安排、税收分享制度安排等三个方面,提出了试点改革实施的基本思路,并对重点行业实施“营改增”进行展望,旨在为我国下一步“营改增”改革提供决策参考。本文可能在以下两个方面有所突破：一是研究内容的拓展。“营改增”必将对经济社会的各个方面产生深远影响,当前国内对此问题的研究还不多,并且大多数集中在某一领域,如经济增长效应的研究、或者产业结构效应的研究。本文试图以分析增值税的社会经济效应为切入点,对“营改增”改革的影响、效果、问题与深化进行了较为系统的分析和讨论。二是研究的主要发现。概括起来有四点：首先,从税收对福利影响的视角看,增值税和营业税都具有“轻度公平”的性质,两税对富人的福利损失相对较大,但影响程度要远低于收入差距；对每个收入阶层来讲,营业税的福利损失要高于增值税。其次,依照1994-2010年的数据分析发现,我国营业税的实际税负要比增值税的实际税负低一半左右。但最近几年增值税实际税负在下降,而营业税实际税负在不断提高。第三产业比重越高的地区,营业税实际税负越重,第三产业发展水平较高的北京、上海等地,其营业税税负要高于省级区域一倍左右。再次,在构建测算“营改增”试点对各级财政影响模型中,全面考虑增值税抵扣税额增加、企业所得税增减、财政补贴、试点行业税收变动引起的附加三种税费变动等重要因素的影响,实证发现“营改增”对财政收入的减收影响程度呈现由上至下递减趋势,并且发达地区重于落后地区。“1+6”行业试点对各级财政的影响很小,而房地产、金融等重点行业的实施将对各级财政形成较大的减收压力。最后,对于“营改增”改革的实施路径,认为渐进式改革模式是理想选择。但不同行业的“营改增”区域路径可分四阶段推进,在当前阶段,应采取以点带面模式,尽快实现“1+6”行业的全国推广。在第二阶段,实行成熟推广模式。对于邮电通信、铁道运输等条件已经成熟的全国性行业,直接在全国推广实施。在第三阶段,在服务、住宿餐饮等与居民生活息息相关的生活性服务业的“营改增”改革,实行省级定点模式,在每个省市选择2个地区参与试点,等经验成熟可行时,然后再推广至全国。在第四阶段,在建筑业、房地产业、金融业等重要行业“营改增”,可采取区域布点模式,首先选择欠发达地区试点,期中再推进发达地区试点,最后实现全行业全覆盖。更多还原

【Abstract】 Modern tax system originated in the late19th century, has undergone more than100years of development. Changes in the tax structure shows that a country’s tax structure largely depends on the level of economic development of the country, and the level of economic development and related system perfect conditions provide a basis for changes in the tax structure, and gradually become the driving forces. In addition, the adjustment and optimization of the tax structure can promote the economic and social development, and improve the fairness and efficiency of economic operation.The issue of the tax structure is also the focus of China’s tax reform. Tax structure formed by the tax system reform in1994, even after adjustments, still do not adapt to the rapid development of macroeconomic."Eleventh Five-Year" period, China has canceled the agricultural tax, merged domestic enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises income tax, raised the personal income tax exemption amount and implemented the VAT(value-added tax) transition from production-based to consumption-based. The adjustment of the tax structure effectively promotes the healthy development of economy and industrial structure optimization. However, the business tax, as China’s third-largest tax and local, exist outstanding problems and contradictions. Therefore, clearly stated in Article42of the recommendations of the CPC Central Committee on the Formulation of the12th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development, the government will speed up tax reform, expand the the scope of replacing business tax with VAT, reduce business tax accordingly, adjust consumption tax rate structure, improve the tax policy which is conducive to the upgrading of industrial structure and the growth of the service industry. On the practical level, starting from January1,2012, the reform of replacing business tax with VAT has implemented in transportation and modern service industry in the Shanghai. VAT and business tax are two of the most important turnover tax, and the sum of the two taxes accounts for nearly half of China’s overall tax revenues, so the the reform of replacing business tax for VAT has important implications. Reforming business tax and establishing a reasonable management system, can be said to be the focus and the main line of the tax reform of China’s "Twelfth Five-Year" period. Therefore, scientific and rational implementation of the the reform of replacing business with VAT is of great significance to the healthy development of China’s economy and society.The reform of replacing business tax with VAT is to optimize the tax structure to better meet the requirements of economic and social development. Current tax system, in which business tax and VAT coexist, is inefficient and unfair. Combing the changes in China’s tax structure, this dissertation discusses the driving force of replacing business with VAT, analyzes the economic effects of the reform, looks to the process and measures of replacing business with VAT. These studies can provide a theoretical basis for the reform of China’s tax structure.The dissertation consists of four parts:The first part is introduction. This part introduces the background and significance of the research, summarizes literature, points out the methods, ideas, innovation and deficiency of the research.The second part is the theoretical framework which can offer practical and theoretical support for the reform. This part points out the defects of China’s tax system in which indirect taxes are dominant, analyzes the cause and problems of coexistence of VAT and business tax.The third part is empirical analysis, including chapter3, chapter4and chapter5. This part studies the impacts of the reform on economic growth, industry structure, welfare and tax burden. This part can verify the previous theoretical analysis.The fourth part is measures and suggestions, including chapter6, chapter7and chapter8. This part analyzes the impacts of the reform on tax burden and fiscal revenues, puts forward recommendation from the point of reform orders, tax rate and tax sharing, and forecasts the expansion of the reform. This part can provides reference for the reform.The dissertation tries to do some innovation:Firstly, the research content is innovative. Replacing business tax with VAT has long-term impact on many aspects of economy and society. Domestic research is often one-sided, either limited to the effect of economic growth, or limited to the effect of the industrial structure, and so on. The article studied the impact of replacing business with VAT on businesses and residents from the microscope, and the impact on local governments and the central government tax revenue from macro analysis, the impact on economic growth, income distribution, industrial structure and technological progress from the macro scope, etc. Relative to the previous studies, this study is comprehensive and thorough.Secondly, the conclusions are innovative.We find that both business tax and VAT is mild fair, the welfare loss caused by business tax and VAT for the rich is larger than the poor, but is much lower than the income gap. In addition, for each income class, the welfare losses caused by business tax are slightly higher than the VAT.According to1994-2010data, we find that China’s actual tax burden of business tax is low by about half than the tax burden of VAT, but in recent years, the tax burden of VAT is decreasing, the tax burden of business tax is increasing. The higher the proportion of tertiary industry in the region, the more servere the tax burden of business tax. The tax burden of business in Beijing, Shanghai is as twice as the tax burden in other provincial areas.Taking full account of the increase in VAT tax credit, the change in corporate income tax, financial subsidies and other factors, we find that fiscal revenue reduction for the higher government is larger than the lower government, the larger for the developed areas than the less developed areas.The reform should be gradual and can be divided into four phases. In the first phase, the reform for the "1+6" industries should be extended across the country as soon as possible. In the second phase, the reform for post and telecommunications and railway transportation should be implemented across the whole country. In the third phase, the reform for accommodation and catering industry and other industries should be piloted in one or two regions in every province and then extended the whole country. In the fore phase, the reform should be extended to construction,real estate,financial services and other important industries from less developed areas to developed areas, and finally to the whole service industries.更多还原