【作者】 刘印江；

【导师】 赵达薇；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨理工大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 21世纪是一个以知识、信息和科技为主导的经济时代,更是一个以人才发展为战略核心的经济时代。人才对区域经济、科技发展的决定性作用日益凸显,得到政府部门的高度重视。东北老工业基地曾为国家经济增长做出巨大贡献,但是目前面临着经济转型、产业高端化发展等战略任务,而完成这些任务的根本保障就是人才。受到区域发展环境等因素的影响,东北老工业基地面临高层次人才缺乏、人才整体质素需要提升等一系列问题。目前关于人才管理的研究多集中在微观层面,对于政府宏观层面的人才管理研究相对较少,无法为解决东北老工业基地人才问题提供直接、有效的支持。可见,在借鉴国内外典型地区人才开发战略基础上,从宏观层面研究东北老工业人才需求预测方法并据此设计科学的人才开发战略,对提高东北老工业基地人才管理水平与人才质量具有重要的理论研究价值与现实指导意义。本文在对国内外人才管理相关理论以及人才需求预测方法与开发战略研究脉络进行系统分析的基础上,界定人才与东北工业基地,综合分析东北老工业基地人才现状,揭示人才对东北老工业基地发展的作用机理,分析人才微观管理与宏观管理的内容、目标与实施主体等,并提炼东北老工业基地人才管理的重点——人才需求预测与人才开发,据此构建东北老工业基地人才需求预测与开发管理框架。分析美国、德国、日本等典型发达国家的人才开发战略,并以我国长江三角洲地区以及珠江三角洲地区为例,分析我国典型地区人才开发战略特征,在进一步分析东北老工业基地人才开发战略基础上,对各个地区人才开发战略的重点以及东北老工业基地在构建人才开发体系中可借鉴的经验进行比较研究与系统归纳。在分析与推导人才需求预测模型构建前提基础上,结合线性回归模型与动态三因子模型,构建二元线性回归模型；引入灰色预测方法,在分析一般GM(1,1)模型与考虑时间因素的、具有时变参数的GM(1,1)预测模型基础上,构建简化后考虑时变的GM(1,1)模型；采用权变组合思想,构建了结合二元线性回归模型与简化后考虑时变的GM(1,1)模型的东北老工业基地人才需求预测权变组合模型,并根据此模型预测黑龙江省人才需求情况,并提出未来人才开发的重点。从加强人才培养、完善人才发展环境、引入市场与竞争机制以及创新人才管理制度等视角,提出了东北老工业基地四维人才开发体系,并对四个维度进行详细设计,提出人才开发实施的保障措施。本文的研究利于拓展人力资源管理研究范围、丰富人力资源管理研究内容,并可为东北老工业基地人才需求预测与开发提供有效方法支持与决策参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 The21st century is a knowledge, information and technology-driven economy era, and also is an economy era taking talent development as strategic core. Talent role in regional economic and technological development has become increasingly prominent and decisive, which receives great attention of government department. Northeast old industrial base once made significant contribution to national economic growth, but now it is facing economic restructuring and industrial higher development and other strategic tasks, and the talent is the fundamental guarantee to finish these tasks. Influenced by regional development and environmental factors, northeast old industrial base is facing the problem of lack of high-level talents and overall quality needs upgrading and other issues. Current research on talent management is more focused on the micro level, and the government macro-level of talent management research is relatively limited, which can not provide direct and effective support to solve the talent problem of northeast old industrial base.Therefore, based on considering domestic and foreign typical region talent development strategy, from the macro level researching talent requirement predicting method and accordingly design talent developing strategy has an important theory value and practical significance for northeast old industrial to improve talent management level and talent quality.Based on systematic analysis of domestic&foreign theory about talent management and talent requirement prediction as well as development strategy research context, defines talent and northeast industrial base, comprehensive analyzes talent status of northeast old industrial base, and reveals talent acting mechanism on northeast old industrial; analyzes micro and macro talent management content, objectives and implementation subject, etc., and refines the key of northeast old industrial base talent management-talent requirement predict and talent development, accordingly builds northeast old industrial base talent requirement predicting and development managing framework.Analyzes talent development strategy of the United States, Germany, Japan and other typical developed countries, and takes China Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta region for example, analyzes talent development strategy features of typical regions, further based on analyzing northeast old industrial base talent development strategy, makes comparative study and systematic induction of each region talent development strategy focus and the experience which northeast old industrial base can learn from in talent development system construction.Based on analysis and deduce of talent requirement predicting model design premise, and combined with combined with the linear regression model and dynamic three-factor model, constructs binary linear regression model; introduces gray prediction method, and based on the analysis of general GM (1,1) model and GM (1,1) predicting model with time-varying parameters builds simplified GM(1,1) model considering time-varying; using combination and contingency thinking builds a northeast old industrial base talent requirement contingency combination model combined with binary linear regression model and simplified GM (1,1) model considering time-varying to predict, and accordingly predict talent requirement of Heilongjiang province, also puts forward talent development key.From the aspects of strengthening talent training, improving talent development environment, introducing market and competition mechanisms as well as innovating talent management mechanism, the four-dimensional talent development system of northeast old industrial base is put forward, and the specific design of four developing dimensions are made, guarantee measurement of talent developing is also proposed.The study of this paper is benefit to expand the scope of human resource management and enrich content of human resource management, and also can provide effective method support and decision-making reference for northeast old industrial base to predict talent requirement and develop talent.更多还原