【作者】 沈钢；

【导师】 由世俊；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 供热、供燃气、通风与空调工程， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 能源是驱动社会发展和经济增长的最基本动力，随着人口增长、经济快速发展以及城市化进程推进，能源需求日益增长，而资源、环境约束也在强化。提高能源利用率，合理利用能源是关系到国民经济发展、建设节约型社会、实施循环经济的重要内容，而且影响到生态环境和人类的生存。本文通过对经济区采暖负荷和工业生产负荷的统计，我们将冷、热、电用户数量的发展即可假定为泊松过程，通过建立预测模型，对今后用户数量和负荷进行预测。结合蒸汽锅炉的热平衡测试数据和实际运行数据，然后求出蒸汽管网的输送效率。综合锅炉热效率、蒸汽输送效率和冷凝水回收效率计算出热能生产方式的能源利用效率。然后进行了热电联产的节能分析、热冷联产的节能评估和冷热电三联产的节能预测。以热电联产系统为研究对象，并确定生命周期评价边界基础上，通过对热电联产项目基础数据的收集和计算公式的计算，建立了系统全生命周期三个阶段清单。在已建立能耗、资源消耗、环境排放清单基础上，将生命周期影响评价扩展到生命周期能耗评价、生命周期资源消耗评价、生命周期环境影响评价、生命周期成本评价，对系统进行全面的分析。最后全面地对该项目进行节能措施及节能效果分析、社会影响分析、主要风险分析。根据空港经济区蒸汽管网的现状和管网运行的基础数据，建立了空港经济区蒸汽管网拓扑结构，然后建立了管段动量平衡方程、管段质量平衡方程、管段能量平衡方程、节点质量流量方程等。通过计算得到蒸汽管网的输送效率和理论热损失。最后对蒸汽热用户的用汽规律和实际生产运行过程中蒸汽管网损失，提出了降低蒸汽管网热损失的技术方法和管理方法。将区间线性规划问题及区间解法的理论应用到在所建立的能源规划模型中，对能源供应、能源转化类型及系统能源利用进行了优化，给出了对相关政策的评价，同时分析了能源供应过程中所产生的污染物对环境的影响，提出了对环境治理政策的建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Energy is the most fundamental driving force of the social development andeconomic growth. With the population increase, economic develop rapidly andUrbanization Accelerates, the energy needs is growing besides resources andenvironmental constraints strengthening. Both improving energy efficiency andachieving optimal use of resources are imperative contents which are related tonational economic development, building a conservation-oriented society and theimplementation of circular economy, and they can also affect the ecologicalenvironment and human survival.In this paper, the development of the number of users of cold, hot, and thepower can be assumed to be Poisson process according to the analysis of the heatingload and the load of industrial production statistics of the economic zone. We canpredict the number of users and load in the future through the establishing theprediction model.With test data of the heat balance of the steam boiler and the actual operatingdata, we can calculate the transmission efficiency of the steam pipe network.Synthesize boiler thermal efficiency, steam distribution efficiency and condensaterecovery efficiency to calculate the energy efficiency of thermal energy productionmethods. And then carried on energy conservation analysis of the cogeneration,energy assessment of Hot cold co-production and energy-saving forecast of coolingheating and power production.Having determined the boundary of life cycle assessment, through collection ofcogeneration project-based data and calculation of the formulas, we generated a list ofthree phases of full life cycle cogeneration for the Cogeneration system. Based on theestablished list of energy consumption, resource consumption and environmentalemissions, the life cycle impact assessment is extended to the evaluation of life cycleabout energy consumption, resource consumption, environmental impact andcost.That is to say, we then analyze the system completely. Finally comprehensiveanalysis of the energy-saving measures, energy-saving effect, social impact and themain risk about the project is conducted.According to the profiles of the steam pipe network and the basic data of pipenetwork running in Airport Economic Zone, we built Airport Industrial Park steampipe network topology, And then established pipe momentum balance equations, pipe quality balanceequations, pipe energy balance equations, node mass flow equations and so on. Thenwe obtained the transmission efficiency and theoretical heat loss of the steam pipenetwork by calculating. Finally, the loss of steam heat steam law and the actualproduction during the operation of the steam pipe network users. we concluded themethods of technology and management to reduce the heat loss of the steam pipenetwork according to the law of the steam consuming of the users and the loss of thesteam pipe network during the operation in actual production.In this paper, interval number linear programming problem and the intervalsolution theory are applied to energy planning model we created to optimize theenergy supply, energy conversion type and the Department of Energy use. Weappraised related policies besides analyzed the effect of the pollutants generated in theprocess of energy supply on the environment, and then gave some policyrecommendations about environmental governance.更多还原