【作者】 闫振宇；

【导师】 陶建平；

【作者基本信息】 华中农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 近年来,禽流感、口蹄疫、甲型H1N1、猪链球菌等重大公共卫生突发事件的频繁发生,引起了社会各界的高度关注。作为这些突发公共事件罪魁祸首的重大动物疫病,具有致病性强、易感性烈、传播迅速、人畜共患等特点；并随着经济发展及公众消费结构的转变,正通过食物链将更多的人暴露在动物疫情风险之下,引起了更广泛人群的关注和反应。其所造成的社会经济影响已远远超过其对人类健康或环境造成的直接危害,极易引发大规模公共卫生危机,形成社会恐慌和政府的信任危机。对于“稳定压倒一切”为发展前提的中国,重大动物疫情的频发对我国政府突发事件应急管理能力提出了严峻考验。由于重大动物疫情应急管理是一个社会性突发事件管理问题,公众的有效参与和协同应对必不可少。综观前人研究成果,大量理论分析和经验研究证明,有效的风险沟通,能够激发公众理性、降低公众恐慌程度、促使公众对突发事件风险形成准确的认知,并进行理性行为决策,平缓疫情的社会影响。因此,突发事件应急管理的顺利实施及其有效性,取决于利益相关群体理性风险认知及风险应对行为的形成,而风险沟通为此提供了有效的途径。那么在重大动物疫情应急管理领域,风险沟通的作用机理如何?如何通过风险沟通合理调整利益相关群体的风险认知和决策行为,协同理性应对重大动物疫情风险?如何从风险沟通的角度,提升重大动物疫情应急管理效能,完善我国重大动物疫情的应急管理?是极具实际研究意义的问题。本论文以风险认知理论、风险的社会放大框架、利益相关者理论以及前景理论等为基础,从理论和经验角度分析了风险沟通在重大动物疫情应急管理中的作用机理和完善途径。并以养殖农户及消费者的问卷调研数据为依据,运用案例分析、因子分析、结构方程模型以及多元有序选择模型等方法,以养殖农户和消费者为重点研究对象,基于重大动物疫情突发情景中疫情相关信息对养殖农户及消费者风险认知与决策行为的影响机理及路径的实证分析,对我国重大动物疫情应急管理过程中政府-养殖农户和政府-消费者风险沟通策略进行了深入探讨。在此基础上,从风险沟通角度对我国重大动物疫情应急管理的完善提出意见和政策建议,期望借助贯穿应急管理始终的风险沟通机制来解决政府在重大动物疫情应急管理方面存在的诸多问题。论文分为七章,主要的研究结论如下：(1)基于前景理论分别构建了重大动物疫情下个体行为决策模型和群体行为空间模型,从理论上论证了风险沟通在动物疫情应急管理中的作用机理。结果表明,风险沟通可调节个体决策者对风险内容和风险发生概率的感知以及对政府的信任程度,来优化其决策价值函数,降低个体对动物疫情突发事件的过度敏感性,促使公众采取积极的风险应对行为。风险沟通过程中,增加疫病风险内容信息、疫病发生概率信息和政府控制措施信息三类信息的密度,可有效缩小重大动物疫病突发事件下的公众群体行为空间,降低政府应急管理难度。(2)通过我国禽流感事件、四川猪链球菌事件以及英国疯牛病事件的案例分析,从实践角度论证了风险沟通在重大动物疫情应急管理中的作用,重点分析了养殖农户和消费者两个群体在重大动物疫情突发事件中的角色以及政府对其采取的沟通措施及应急效果。分析表明,风险沟通是动物疫情应急管理的有效手段,合理的风险沟通可以起到有效疫情控制作用,反之,将扩大动物疫情的负面影响。养殖农户对动物疫情风险的认知及其应对行为直接影响政府疫情控制措施的实施及有效性,而消费者对突发动物疫情下的安全风险感知及应对行为又决定了动物疫情突发事件影响的深度和广度。因此,养殖农户和消费者是重大动物疫情应急管理风险沟通的重点对象,在应急管理中要注重把握养殖农户及消费者的风险认知状况,采取合适的风险沟通策略。(3)通过疫病风险信息对养殖农户风险认知及行为决策的影响机理及路径的实证研究,分析了重大动物疫情应急管理中政府-养殖农户的风险沟通策略。结果表明,疫病内容信息、疫病概率信息和政府控制措施信息以风险认知为中介变量,对农户决策行为具有显著影响,是动物疫情风险沟通重点传递的信息内容。政府在与养殖农户进行风险信息交流时,应偏重使用视频、音频、图示,以及人际之间的信息交流与培训。同时,区分信息的实时性差异并选择合适的信息沟通渠道,对于大部分疫病内容信息可以主要通过书籍、报刊、资料等形式发放给养殖农户,多用图示讲解的形式宣传疫情信息风险内容。对于疫病发生概率信息和政府控制措施信息,更多要求实时性传达给养殖农户,这类信息的沟通渠道以电视为主,沟通过程中要综合运用电视、广播、报刊、网络等渠道。(4)通过疫病风险信息对消费者风险认知及行为决策的影响机理及路径的实证研究,分析了重大动物疫情应急管理中政府-消费者的风险沟通策略。结果表明,重大动物疫情发生时,消费者的风险认知主要有健康损失、社会损失、心理损失和金钱损失四个维度,其中身体健康损失是最重要的维度。降低消费者动物疫情下食品质量安全风险认知的信息渠道按显著性降序排序依次为：政府、报纸、电视、专家,其中政府渠道的影响最为显著；消费者的文化程度、疫情时期食品安全风险的认知、以及非疫情时期市场上食品质量安全水平的评价对其自身积极消费行为存在显著影响。在重大动物疫情应急管理过程中,政府和消费者的风险沟通重点应放在降低消费者健康损失不确定性上。政府应主动、及时公开疫情相关信息,满足消费者的疫病信息需求,同时加强日常食品安全的监测和保障水平,维护政府权威及消费者对政府机构的信任。本论文有别于一般的重大动物疫情应急管理研究,以风险沟通为研究视角,综合运用定性分析和定量分析法,理论和实证研究了风险沟通在重大动物疫情应急管理中的作用机理,探讨了重大动物疫情下政府-养殖农户以及政府-消费者之间风险沟通策略。提出了基于风险沟通的重大动物疫情应急管理的完善意见及政策建议。研究过程理论联系实践,研究结论更具现实参考意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, major public health emergencies such as avian influenza, foot and mouth disease, Influenza A H1N1and Streptococcus suits occur frequently, which has caused the high attention of all circles in society.As the chief culprit of those public emergencies, major animal epidemic diseases has a strong pathogenic susceptibility, spread rapidly, zoon tic and other characteristics; and with the changes in the structure of economic development and public consumption, through the food chain, more people are exposed to the risks of animal epidemics, caused by a broader audience’s attention and reaction. The resulting socio-economic impact has been far more than the direct harm to human health or the environment, can easily lead to large-scale public health crisis, the formation of social panic and the government’s crisis of confidence. In China, the "stability overrides everything" is a prerequisite for development. So the major animal epidemic-prone poses a severe test of our government emergency management capabilities.As major animal epidemics emergency management is one of the social emergency management problems, public efficient participation and collaborative confronting are inevitable. Comprehensively reviewing previous research results, a great deal of theoretical and empirical analysis showed that efficient risk communication could inspire public rationality, reduce public panic and urge the public to form accurate risk cognition of emergency to carry out rational decision making and relieve epidemic’ social influence. Therefore, the smooth implementation and efficiency of sudden events’ emergency management depends on the rational risk cognition of interest-related groups and the formation of risk coping behavior, while risk communication provides effective path to it. Then what the mechanism of risk communication is in the field of major animal epidemic diseases emergency management, how to employ risk communication to appropriately adjust risk cognition of interest-related groups and coordinate to deal with major animal epidemic diseases, how to increase the efficiency of major animal epidemic diseases emergency management form the perspective of risk communication and perfect it are of great analyzing implications. On the basis of risk perception theory, social amplification framework, stakeholder theory and prospect theory of the risk, this thesis analyzed action mechanism and perfect ways of risk communication in the emergency management of major animal epidemic from a theoretical and empirical point of view, and put forward the theoretical foundation and analytical framework. According to breeding farmers and consumers’ questionnaire data, the thesis conducted in-depth discussion on government-breeding farmers and the government-consumer’ risk communication strategy in the progress of major animal epidemic emergency management by using case analysis, factor analysis, structural equation modeling and multivariate ordinal Logistic model, taking aquaculture farmers and consumers as a research subject, and being based on the influence mechanism of the risk perception and decision-making behavior, and the empirical analysis of the path on the aquaculture farmers and consumer that epidemic information has influenced in major animal epidemic emergency situations.(1) Based on the prospect theory, the thesis structured respectively the model of individual decision makers and the group behavior space and demonstrated theoretically the function mechanism of the risk communication on the Animal epidemic emergency management. The result shows that the risk communication can regulate the individual decision makers’ perception on the content and the probability of occurrence of the risk and regulate their trust level on the government, in this way the risk communication can optimize the individual decision makers’ value function, lessen their sensitiveness on the animal epidemic emergency and promote the public to adopt constructive behavioral pattern. During the process of risk communication, by increasing the information density of epidemic risk content, the epidemic probability and the government controlling measures, we can narrow the public space of group behavior under the circumstance of major animal epidemic emergency and reduce the difficulty of government emergency management.(2) through case study of our country’s bird flu, Streptococcus infection event in Sichuan Province and British mad cow disease, the paper demonstrates from the practical perspective the role of risk communication in managing major animal disease emergencies, focusing on analyzing the roles of the two major groups of farmers and consumers in major animal epidemic emergencies as well as the communication measures government takes and their effects. Analysis shows that, risk communication is one of the important means in dealing with animal epidemic emergency management and reasonable risk communication means could play an effective role in emergency management, conversely, would expand negative effect of animal epidemic situation. Livestock breeding farmers’ cognition toward animal epidemic risk and their coping behavior directly affect the enforcement and effectiveness of government epidemic controlling measures, and consumers’ perception of pork food safety risk in the context of sudden animal epidemic situation and their coping behavior decision determine the depth and breadth of animal epidemic emergencies influence. Therefore, livestock breeding farmers and consumers are the key objects of risk communication on major animal epidemic emergency management, and we should track farmers’ and consumers’ perceptions of risk in emergency management and take appropriate risk communication strategies.(3) Through the empirical study on the epidemic disease information’ influence mechanism and path toward risk perception and decision making behavior of livestock breeding farmers, the paper analyzes the risk communication strategies of government and livestock breeding farmers in the emergency managing of major animal epidemic disease. It shows that specific information of disease, probability information, and government’ information of controlling measures take risk perception as an intermediary variable, have a significant impact on Farmers’ decision-making behavior, are the messages that animal epidemic risk communication primarily conveys. When communicating with farmers on risk information, government should rely more on the use of video, audio, graphics and interpersonal information exchange and training. Meanwhile, government should distinguish real time difference of information and select appropriate channels of information communicating, for most diseases content information they can mainly employ books, newspapers, materials and the like to deliver to livestock breeding farmers, and rely more on graphic lecturing to announce epidemic information risk. As for epidemic disease shocking probability information and government controlling information, they are more required to substantially deliver to farmers, more by the means of television, comprehensively using television, radio, newspapers, networks and other channels. (4)Through the empirical study on the epidemic disease information’ influence mechanism and path toward risk perception and decision making behavior of consumers, the paper analyzes the risk communication strategies of government and consumers in the emergency managing of major animal epidemic disease. It shows that when major animal disease occurs, consumer perceptions of risk include the four dimensions, health loss, social loss, mental loss and money loss, of which physical health loss is the most important dimension. The information channels to reducing consumers’ risk perception of food quality and safety in animal epidemic are followed in significant descending order as, government, newspapers, television, experts, of which the government channel has the most significant effect. Consumers’ education degree, food safety risk perception during epidemic disease and food quality safety evaluation during non-epidemic period have a significant influence on their own positive consumption behavior. The priority of government and consumers’ risk communication should be focused on reducing the uncertainty of consumers’ health loss when dealing with major animal epidemic emergency management. And. government should voluntarily and punctually unveil epidemic disease related information to meet consumers’ demand on epidemic information and meanwhile reinforce daily food safety monitoring and security level to safeguard the authority of government and consumers’ trust on government.Different from general major animal epidemic emergency management research, the paper stands from the perspective of risk communication, comprehensively use qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis methods, theoretically and empirically studies risk communication’s mechanism in the major animal disease emergency management, discusses risk communication strategies of government and livestock breeding farmers and of government and consumers during major animal epidemic situation, and puts up suggestions and proposals on how to perfect major animal epidemic emergency management based on risk communication. The research process combines theory and practice, and the conclusions are far of practical reference implication.更多还原