【作者】 肖文兴；

【导师】 朱有志；

【作者基本信息】 湖南农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 中国是一个农业大国,也是一个发展中的人口大国,农业产业的发展关系到国家的粮食安全,关系到近九亿农业人口的生存问题和全国人民的基本生活保障,关系到国民经济的协调、健康、持续发展。农业是国民经济的基础,对农业进行扶持和保护是当今世界各国的普遍做法。加入世界贸易组织后,中国农业面临新的机遇和挑战。因此,对农业进行保护,确保入世后的农业产业安全不仅是必要的,而且非常紧迫。农业产业安全是指一个国家的农业在经受国内外各种不利因素的影响时,能够基本上不受威胁、干扰和破坏而保持正常的运行和发展,不会引发国内农产品供给的严重不足,它是国家经济安全的一个重要组成部分,提高农业竞争力是保障农业安全的基本手段。加入世贸组织后农业产业安全面临着一些不容忽视的问题和新形势下的挑战,如外资对我国农业的控制增强,潜在风险增加；国际农产品市场对我国农产品市场的影响日益加深,农产品国际贸易环境不容乐观；我国农业产业链不发达,产业整体竞争力受到制约等。经济全球化通过金融全球化、生产全球化、贸易投资全球化加剧了全球农业产业的竞争。一些开放度高、缺乏有效调控手段的产品受贸易和外资进入影响大,产业安全状况面临非常严峻的挑战,其中羊毛、棉花、大豆是较为典型的三个品种。加入“WTO”后,我国的经济作物所受到的影响相对较大一些,包括棉花、糖料作物和油料作物；在粮食作物中受到冲击最大的是玉米、大豆和大麦。而小麦和大米受到的影响相对较小；入世会对水果、蔬菜和畜产品带来有利影响。加入“WTO”给中国农业带来的冲击大于机遇。根据何维达和何昌(2002)的研究,中国农业在2001前基本安全,本文改进研究方法,借鉴全球最具权威性的关于产业国际竞争力的研究机构IMD和WEF在整合国际竞争力的多指标体系时的方法,建立农业产业安全评价模型。用模糊综合评价法得出探索性的结论：根据本文的研究,加入“WTO”后,2002-2009年,中国农业的安全度虽然有所下降,但中国农业仍然是“基本安全”,接近“不安全”的边缘,因为有一些不安全因素增加,需要建立预警机制,采取防范措施。与其他一些研究者的结论基本一致。而且,首次对湖南农业产业安全状况进行了实证分析。对加入“WTO”给中国农业带来的影响进行了全国范围内的问卷调查。同时,编写了附录一的案例：“中国反贸易壁垒第一案”。根据农业产业安全评价的五个安全度区域及其状态标识本研究创新地设置相应的预警灯信号,并采取相应的措施。其它国家农业保护政策启示我们：应完善我国的合规性贸易壁垒体系,有效保护我国农业；产业保护与产业结构的优化结合起来,才能实现产业的良性发展；扩大内需和开拓国际市场应并重,重视对农业的合理支持；保护手段力求多样化和灵活性；利用世界贸易组织程序性规定,加强国内农业保护；运用世贸组织有关知识产权保护的协议和规定,加强对本国地方名特农产品的品牌保护。在世界贸易组织《农业协议》下,我国要全面深化农业体制改革；加快农业结构调整；建立农业创新体系；建立农业保障体系,保持农业可持续发展；实行乡镇企业的战略性调整,加速农村城市化建设；提高中国农产品国际竞争力,利用国际市场扩大农产品出口；推进农业税制改革和国家财政支持,合理利用外资。我们必须要构筑起确保中国农业产业安全的“防火墙”,树立“大开放”、“大发展”、“大安全”的农业产业安全观,在经济全球化的大背景下,于扩大开放的相互依存中促进大发展,于大发展的相互合作过程中谋求大安全。但是,农业产业安全具有其产业特色所要求的特殊性,应采取如下保障措施：树立新的国家产业安全观；健全相关法规体系,提升农业产业竞争力；统一规划农业产业安全体系,建立专门的产业安全机构；建立灵敏有效的安全预警系统,防范产业安全风险；积极参与多边贸易谈判,利用决策机制维护农业产业安全；用好用足WTO赋予的特殊和差别待遇,积极进行发展战略和贸易政策的调整；充分利用WTO贸易救济机制和争端解决机制,实施多元化出口战略,出口国家、出口产品多元化；中国农业企业要做大做强,建立完整自主的产业链条,形成自主品牌,自主定价体系,降低对外依存度,促进产业的良性发展,抵御外部冲击,保障产业安全。更多还原

【Abstract】 China is a large agricultural country, and a developing country with a huge population. The development of agriculture industry is crucial to the country’s food security, the issue of survival of nearly900million agricultural population and the basic living security of the people all over China, and the harmonious, health and sustainable development of the national economy. As agriculture is the foundation of national economy, supports and protections on agriculture are common practices in the world today. After China’s entry to the World Trade Organization, China’s agriculture is facing new opportunities and challenges. Therefore, protections on agriculture are not only necessary but also urgent to ensure the safety of agricultural industry after China’s entry to WTO.Agricultural industry safety means the agriculture in a country can manage to maintain the normal operation and development despite the threats, interferences and damages subject to various adverse factors at home and from abroad, and there will not be serious shortages of supply of domestic agricultural products. Agricultural industry safety is an important part of national economic security, and to improve the competitiveness of agriculture is a basic approach to guarantee agricultural safety.After China’s entering to WTO, the industry safety of agriculture faces some problems that can not be ignored and challenges under new situations, such as the increased control on China’s agriculture by foreign capitals, raised potential risks, growing impacts on China’s agriculture products market by international agriculture products market, and the not-optimistic international trade environment of agriculture products; The industrial chain of agriculture in China is undeveloped and the overall industry competitiveness of agriculture is constrained etc. The competition of global agriculture is intensified by economy globalization through financial globalization, production globalization and trade and investment globalization. Some products with high degree of opening and less efficient regulation measures are highly impacted by trade and foreign capital entry, and they face very fierce challenges on industry safety, among them there are three typical products like wool, cotton and soybean.After entering WTO, China has encountered relatively big impacts on economic crops such as cotton, sugar crops and oil crops; the hardest hit came to the food crops such as corn, soybeans and barley. The impacts on wheat and rice are relatively small; China’s entry to WTO has brought some favorable influences to fruits, vegetables and animal products.The entry to WTO brings more impacts than opportunities to China’s agriculture. According to the study of Ho Vader and Ho Chang (2002), China’s agriculture was basically safe by2001. This paper uses an improved methodology to establish an agricultural industry security evaluation model, by the reference of the world’s most authoritative research institutions (IMD and WEF) on the international competitiveness of industry based on the method with integration of multi-index system. An exploratory conclusion is drawn based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method:according to this study, after entering WTO, and in the period of2002to2009, even though the degree of safety is lowered, China’s agriculture is "basically safe" and close to the border of "unsafe". Since the unsafe factors were increasing, an early-warning mechanism shall be established and some precaution measures shall be taken. This conclusion is consistent with the conclusions of other researchers. In addition, an empirical analysis is conducted on the industry safety status of agriculture in Hunan province for the first time. A nationwide questionnaire survey on the impacts on China’s agriculture by her entering to WTO was coducted. At the same time, a case-"The first Case of China’s fighting against trade barriers" is compiled in Attachment1.According to the safety evaluation and state identifications of five safety areas of the agricultural industry, this research innovatively sets up appropriate warning light signals with corresponding countermeasures.Agricultural protection policies of other countries inspire us that:our national compliance system of trade barriers should be completed to ensure effective protection on agriculture; only the combination of industry protection and optimization of industrial structure can realize the sound development of the industry; expanding the domestic demands and exploring the international market should be equally emphasized, reasonable supports to agriculture should be taken into high attention; means of protection should be diversified and flexible; the World Trade Organization procedural regulations can be used to strengthen the domestic agricultural protection; WTO agreements on intellectual property protections and regulations can be used to strengthen the brand protections of domestic famous and special agricultural products.In the "Agreement on Agriculture" of World Trade Organization, China shall conduct thorough and deep agricultural reforms, speed up the adjustment of agricultural structures, establish agricultural innovation system, set up agricultural security system, maintain sustainable agricultural development, implement the strategic readjustment of township enterprises, accelerate rural-urbanization construction; improve the international competitiveness of Chinese agricultural products, use international markets to increase the exports of agricultural products; promote agricultural tax reform and state financial supports, and make rational use of foreign capitals.A "firewall" shall be set up to ensure the safety of China’s agricultural industry, a security concept of "grand opening","powerful development" and "overall safety" shall be established for agricultural industry. In the context of economic globalization, the powerful development will be promoted with the coexistence of further opening-up, and the overall safety will be pursued in the process of cooperation with powerful development. However, as the agricultural industry has its own safety features due special nature of agriculture, the following security measures are needed:establishing a new national industrial security concept; improving the relevant legal system; enhancing the competitiveness of agricultural industry; overall planning of agricultural security system, establishing specialized industrial safety agency, building up sensitive and effective safety warning system; preventing industrial risk; participating actively in multilateral trade negotiations, using decision-making mechanism to maintain the safety of agricultural industry, making full use of WTO special and differential treatment to actively carry out development strategies and trade policy adjustment; utilizing fully WTO trade remedy mechanism and dispute settlement mechanism to implement the export diversification strategy with diversified country of export, and export products; The Chinese agricultural enterprises need to transform to bigger and stronger, establish a complete and independent industrial chain, form their own brands and independent pricing system, reduce external dependence, and promote the sound development of industry, to withstand external impacts and guarantee the safety of China’s agricultural industry.更多还原