【作者】 闫惠惠；

【导师】 王礼力；

【作者基本信息】 西北农林科技大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2012， 博士

【副题名】以山东省为例

【摘要】 经济的增长不单纯是总量的问题，更是结构变动的问题。结构能否有序、合理的变动直接影响经济增长的速度。自上世纪80年代以来，随着经济发展、农民收入开始增加。当收入增加到一定程度时，农民很难再靠增加投资总量来提高收入，转而需要不断调整自己所拥有的各种资源，将其最优化以带来更大收益。能否提高资源配置能力，在很大程度上影响了农民收入的提高。80年代初期，随着家庭联产承包责任制的实施，农户主要进行农业投资，以满足基本的生存需求，无暇顾及其他行业的投资。90年代以后，随着粮食产量提高、农户收入增加，农户有能力也有意愿进行投资结构的调整以增加收入，因此对上世纪90年代以来农户投资结构的研究就具有极大的现实意义。本研究以山东省农村为例，借鉴已有的相关理论成果，以投资结构决定理论考察为基础，结合山东省410份农民调研数据，运用Logit模型从实证角度确定影响农户投资结构形成的4个主要因素，即：农户收入、家庭资产水平、区域差异及制度变革。根据历年山东省统计年鉴并结合调研数据，分析农户投资结构变动规律，并运用时间序列模型、面板数据模型与数据包络分析法（DEA）分析4个主要因素对农户投资结构形成的影响程度。通过对农户投资结构特点及影响因素进行量化分析，得到以下结论：（1）从不同角度描述农户投资结构变化特征，可得出如下结论：第一，就农户投资的来源结构而言，农户借贷资金占农户投资比例非常小，平均仅0.775%，投资主要靠个人收入；第二，就农户投资产业结构而言，农户投资于第一产业的比例波动式下降，投资于第二、三产业的比例则呈波动式上升，主要原因在于不同产业的边际效益不同；第三，就农户投资的性质结构而言，农户生产性投资比例大幅度下降，而非生产性投资逐步提升，说明农户越来越重视教育与健康这些人力资本的投资；第四，就农户投资的形式结构而言，山东农户投资的货币化程度迅速增加，实物投资在农户总投资中所占比例已经是微乎其微，这是市场化建立的重要表现。因为对农户收入影响最直接的因素是产业投资，因此本研究以农户产业投资结构作为研究对象。通过数据分析发现，农户在投资时是非常理性的，上一年各产业的投资效益高低直接影响其第二年投资的产业选择。除了投资效益这个最直接的影响因素，根据数据调研结果，其他四个因素对农户投资结构形成影响最大，随后分析各因素对农户投资结构形成的影响程度。（2）第一，纯收入与现金收入变化对农户投资结构影响趋势一致。即农户收入的变化对农户各产业投资都具有正的影响作用，但影响程度不同，依次排序为第二、三、一产业；第二，引入持久收入与暂时收入概念分析，农户是理性的，持久收入对农户三个产业的边际投资倾向均大于暂时收入的边际投资倾向。即农户对未来收入变化不确定时，会投资最有把握、收益回报最稳定的传统产业；第三，不同来源收入中对农户第一产业投资起促进作用的是经营收入，而对二、三产业起推动作用的是农户工资收入。（3）农户拥有的资产存量对投资产业结构选择的影响分析来看，金融资产与人力资产对农户投资具明显推动作用，且对二、三产业投资的推动力大于第一产业。实物资产对各产业投资具阻碍作用，主要原因在于住房占实物资产比例较高，各年均在50%左右。第一，农户现金的增加使其第一、二产业的投资都有所减少，第三产业投资增加。第二，储蓄对农户三个产业的投资都起促进作用，作用力依次为第二、三、一产业。第三，固定资产的增加对农户第一产业投资起阻碍作用，对第二、三产业投资起推动作用。第四，农户住房对其三个产业的投资都起到阻碍作用，但由于住房可用于农户第一产业生产场所，因此，住房的投资对第一产业阻碍最小。第五，人力资本存量提高使农户更加愿意向二、三产业投资，其中对第二产业的正向推动作用要大于对第三产业的推动作用。（4）通过面板数据(paneldata)模型方法，就区域差异对农户投资影响进行检验。区域差异主要通过市场化程度表现，本研究选取6个指标衡量市场化程度，结果证明，市场化进程中，农户最倾向于进行的是第三产业投资。市场化程度加深对农户投资结构调整起到促进作用，因此，政府应为市场化完善创造良好的环境。除了农业机械提高减少了农户第三产业的投资外，其他区域市场化因素的增加都促进了农户第三产业的投资。非农劳动力占农村劳动力比例增加使得农村劳动力使用效率提高，提高了农户第一产业的投资回报；农户工资所占比例增加，农户投资第一产业的积极性降低，投资减少；农户纯收入中现金所占比例的高低与工资所占比例情况一致，农户获得现金后更愿意从事二、三产业的投资。（5）运用DEA（数据包络分析法）评价了各区域农户投资结构效率，山东省各区域中通过投资结构调整带来收入增长的主要是西部地区，西部地区农户投资结构优化效率高于东部地区。（6）制度变革是影响农户投资结构变动的重要因素之一。制度因素中选取了城乡二元结构、税费改革、农村金融体制改革及财政支农政策。得到如下结论，山东省城乡二元结构程度不断加大，使得农户投资第一产业的比例减小，而投资第二、三产业的比例增加；税费提高会减少农户第一产业投资，对第二产业投资影响不显著，税费收取数额增加会使得农户第三产业投资比例升高；农户贷款占个人借款比例越大，农户投资第一产业的比例越小，而投资第二、三产业的比例则越大；农业支出占财政支出的比重高低对农户第一产业投资比例有正向推动作用，对二、三产业投资比例具有反向作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Economic growth is not only the problem of total, but the problem of structure’s changes.Structure’s orderly,reasonable changes directly affect the speed of economic growth.Since the80’s of last century, with the development of economy, farmers’ income increases. Whenfarmers’ income increases to a certain extent,it is very difficult to to raise revenue relying onincreasing investment.To bring the greatest benefits,farmers adjust their own resources toinvestment.The ability of using resource has affected greatly on the farmers’ income. In the80’s of last century, with the implementation of household contract responsibility system,farmers’ major investment is agriculture in order to meet the basic needs for survive. After the90’s of last century, farmers’ income increase, farmers had the desire to adjust investmentstructure in order to increase income.So,it is important to research the farmers’ investmentstructure.The study taking Shandong Province as an example, drawing on existing theories,introducing the farmer investment structure decision theory,construct the model ofinfluencing farmer’s investment structure.According to the data of410farmers in Shandongprovince rural survey team, based on the time series model, panel data model and dataenvelopment analysis (DEA) analyzes the cahnges of farmers’ investment structure andfeatures from4aspects, including the farmer income, family asset level, regional differencesand the changes of system.Based on the analysis of structural change,getting the following conclusions:(1) Analyzing the farmers’ investment structure from different statistical description, thefollowing conclusions can be drawn: firstly, in terms of farmers’ investments structure ofsource, the borrowed funds is very small, averaging only0.775%; Secondly, in terms offarmers’ industrial investment structure, farmers’ investment in the first industrial declined,investment in second, three industrial proportion rised; Thirdly, in terms of the nature ofinvestment structure of farmers, farmers’ production investment proportion dropssubstantially; Fourthly, in terms of farmal investment structure of farmers, currency level offarmers in Shandong province increased rapidly. This study chooses the industrial investment structure as the object. Farmers is very rational, benefit has a direct impact on choice of theinvestment.(2) The changes of total income, net income and cash income influence the household’sinvestment structure. Namely,changes of farmers’ income has a positive effect, but the impactis different; Farmer is rational, the influence of permanent income of farmers’ in investmentstructure is more than temporary income. When the permanent income increases, farmers willincrease the second or third industrial investment, and when the temporary income increase,farmers will increase the first industrial investment; Different sources of income had affectedfarmers industrial investment structure. The results showed that different sources of incomehave different marginal propensity to investment.(3) Farmers’ existing assets of investment analyzes the choice of industrialstructure.Saving of farmers’ promoted three industrial investmen. The increase of the farmers’fixed assets obstructed the fist industrial investment.The increase of farmers’ cash reduced thefirst and second industrial investment, the impact of second industry investment is greaterthan the first industry investment. Rural housing of the farmers’ reduced all the investment.(4) Through panel data model, the impact of the different region on the farmers’investment is made. Regional differences are mainly showed through the degree ofmarketization, this study selected6indicators to measure the degree of marketization.Theresults prove that apart from the agriculture machinery,the increase of other factors increasedthe farmers’ third industrial investment. The non-agricultural labor force increase theefficiency of labors’ use, promoted farmers’ first industrial investment; Farmers’ wagereduced the first industrial investment; Cash of farmers’ income increases the efficiency offarmers’ second and third industrial investmet.(5)Using DEA(data envelopment analysis) evaluate the efficiency of famers’ investmentstructure.Through optimizing the investment structure,revenue growth is mainly in thewestern region of Shandong Province.The investment structure of famers in the westernregion is more efficient than in the eastern region.(6) Institutional change is one of the important factors influencing the farmers’investment structure.In the study,four facors are chosed in institutional,including dualstructure of urban and rural, tax reform, the rural financial system reform and the policy offinancial support to agriculture. Conclusions are obtained as follows, dual structure of urbanand rural in Shandong province is increased, making that farmers’ investment in the firstindustry was reduced, and the second、third industrial investment increases; The tax has more effect on their first industrial investment;Farmers’ loan is bigger, farmers’ firstindustrial investment is smaller, and second,three industrial investments are larger;Agricultural expenditure of government has positive role in the level of farmers’ firstindustrial investment ratio, and reverse effect on the scond or third industrial investment ratio.更多还原