【作者】 刘若溪；

【导师】 张建华；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学 ， 电力系统及其自动化， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 随着智能电网的快速发展、特高压电网建设的稳步推进,现代电网的自动化水平和复杂程度不断加强。但另一方面,伴随着系统复杂性和经济性的不断提高,系统运行的不确定性也随之增加,使得系统故障波及的范围更广,系统事故的后果也愈加严重。因此本文主要针对电力系统运行安全性的若干基础理论与算法进行了以下研究工作：(1)本文在深入研究备用电源自动投入装置(简称备自投或BATS)动作特性的基础上,设计了一种新的用以在线分析备自投投退组合的实时算法。该算法首次提出了两个全新矩阵模型：备自投实时分级矩阵模型和备自投实时关联矩阵模型,并对这两个矩阵模型的物理意义进行了详细说明。以河南省某地区实际电网为算例对本文所提算法进行了验证。(2)为了解决由于投入备自投装置时,没有充分考虑备用电源侧元件热稳定极限的影响或其他相关母线的电压越限情况,导致连锁故障发生,使故障进一步扩大的问题。本文应用重复潮流算法,实时在线评估备用电源侧的可用供电能力,将所得结果作为备自投装置动作与否的决策依据。最后利用某地区在线SCADA数据对上述方法进行了验证,验证结果表明该方法具有一定的可行性。(3)从配电网供电安全性角度出发,考虑配电网结构灵活的特性,以风险理论为基础,结合K(N-1+1)准则和效用理论提出了配电网失负荷风险指标、过负荷风险指标和电压越限风险指标,进而从不同侧面对系统的安全性进行“分诊”,并在此基础上进一步应用层次分析法(AHP)得出系统的总风险指标,作为配电网静态安全分析的基础,以达到“会诊”的目的。(4)提出了一套较为完整的地区电网在线安全评价指标体系,应用实时数据库与关系数据库相结合的方法设计了“基于实时数据的地区电网在线安全预警系统”的硬件网络结构与软件架构,给出了地市调度系统SCADA和PAS实时数据采集与传输,以及各类计算后所得安全指标如何发布与展示的具体方式。(5)提出一种考虑发电机实时运行状态的发电系统运行风险评估算法。采用一种计及发电机实时运行状态的停运率模型来计算各发电机的实时停运率,并根据风险理论建立发电机非计划停运给发电系统造成的经济损失后果模型。最后给出发电系统所处各种有功输出状态的概率、期望有功输出和期望经济损失3个指标。通过对算例IEEE RTS-79的计算分析验证所提算法的有效性。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid development of smart grid and UHV power grid, the modem grid’s automation and complexity level constantly strengthen. On the other hand, The uncertainty of the system also increases, making the sweep region of fault more wider and the consequence of fault more severe. The dissertation focuses on several key theory and algorithm on power system operational security. The main achievements are as follows:In this dissertation, on the basis of the in-depth research of BATS operating characteristics, a new online algorithm for analyzing the controlling strategy of BATS is proposed. Author proposes two innovative matrix models:BATS real-time rating matrix model and BATS real-time incidence matrix model, then the physical meaning of the two-matrix model is described in detail. Making an actual regional grid of Henan province as an example, author verifyes the proposed algorithm.In order to solve this problem:a series of failures may occur due to the lack of consideration of the influence of the component thermal stability limits at standby power supply side and voltage limits of relevant bus in the controlling process of BATS. This paper evaluates the available supply capability of standby power online by using repetitive power flow method. The results provide a basis for decision making in terms of switching on the BATS. At last, author adapt the SCADA data in a region grid, and the results confirm the plausibility of our strategy.Based on the flexibility of distribution network, risk theory and starting with power supplying security of distribution network, author proposes the risk indicators of load loss, overload and voltage limit violation combining with the k(n-1+1) criterion and utility theory. Using this method, the paper gives a sub-diagnosis of the safety for system from different aspects, and makes use of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to draw the whole risk indicator of system as the foundation of the static security analysis. So we can get the integer indicator of the whole system.An integrated indices system for the regional power grid on-line security assessment is proposed. Regarding the presented indices system as the core, an approach, in which the real-time database is combined with relational database, is adopted to design the hardware structure and software architecture of the on-line security assessment system based on real-time data for regional power grid. Author also describes the specific way of how to collect and transmit SCADA and PAS real-time data from regional power grid dispatching system, and display the safety indicators.Putting forward an operational risk assessment algorithm for generating system, in which the operating conditions of generator was considered. The outage rate of generator was calculated by a method in which the operating conditions of generator had been considered. The economic loss model which was caused by unplanned shutdown of generator was also established. At last, the algorithm developed three indices, including the probability of all kinds of active power output states, active power output expectation and economic loss expectation, which can measure the real time operational risk of power plant. The calculation and analysis of IEEE-RTS79reliability test systems show that the proposed algorithm is effective.更多还原