【作者】 翟治芬；

【导师】 严昌荣；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业科学院 ， 农业水资源利用， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 全球气候变化已成为人们所公认的事实，气温的升高、降水量和日照的变化均导致了农业生产的敏感性增强。合理推广农业节水技术，是我国农业可持续发展的重要保障。明确我国气候资源的基本情况，掌握农业节水技术应用的条件，合理评估农业节水技术适宜应用和推广区域，可起到缓解气候变化导致的干旱、低温冷害等的影响，对农业的可持续发展具有重要意义。本文以我国1981-2010时段和B₂情景下2011-2040时段气象数据、玉米生育期数据、农业生产基本数据、中国土壤数据和DEM数据为基础数据，计算年均温度、降雨量、太阳辐射量、玉米的播种期和成熟期及其种植效益，借助GIS、多元逐步回归和灰色预测等方法，获取这两个时段我国气候资源、玉米生育期及其种植效益的空间分布规律。在此研究基础上，构建农业节水技术评价指标体系，应用粗糙集理论、模糊数学理论及层次分析法等实现了典型节水技术的综合评价，并预测了B₂情景下地膜覆盖技术、少免耕技术和雨水集蓄技术应用的适宜区域。主要结论如下：（1）玉米地膜覆盖适宜区域主要位于：东北地区包括黑龙江省的中南部、吉林、辽宁、内蒙古自治区，华北地区的包括河北、山西、河南以及江苏和安徽的北部地区，西北地区包括陕西、甘肃、宁夏和新疆。在B₂情景下，2011-2040时段中国玉米地膜覆盖适宜区域比1981-2010时段的适宜区域有所扩大，主要位于：东北地区（不包括大兴安岭地区），华北地区、西北地区以及长江中下游平原地区的安徽、江苏的南部、江西的北部和浙江省。（2）玉米少免耕栽培适宜区域主要包括：东北地区的黑龙江、吉林的中东部和辽宁，华北地区的河北、山西的南部，山东、河南及陕西的中南部，长江中下游的平原与丘陵区、西南地区的重庆、四川、云南、贵州以及华南地区。与1981-2010时段相比，在B₂情景下2011-2040时段玉米少免耕栽培技术的各级适宜区域均有所扩大。（3）决定雨水集蓄技术适宜性的自然因子为：降雨、土壤类型、坡度和土地利用。中国雨水集蓄技术适宜区域主要包括：黑龙江省的西部、吉林、辽宁、内蒙古的东部、河北、山西、山东东部、河南北部、陕西、甘肃的东部、宁夏南部以及四川的东部地区。与1981-2010时段相比，在B₂情景下2011-2040时段中国雨水集蓄技术适宜性区域更加集中，低级适宜区域有所缩小。（4）根据对农业节水技术应用效果的实地调研，应用Delphi法从调查获得的20项评价指标中筛选出了9项农业节水技术综合评价指标，构建了农业节水技术综合评价指标体系。基于层次分析法（AHP）和粗糙集（Rough Set）引入经验因子构建农业节水技术综合评价方法（ARM）。分别应用AHP、Rough Set和ARM对甘肃省武威市的地膜覆盖、秸秆覆盖和常规畦田灌溉在大田中的应用效果进行了综合评价。研究结果表明，在西北半干旱地区，地膜覆盖是用于种植玉米最佳技术，而秸秆覆盖技术尽管其生态效益较高，但经济效益较低，还有待于进一步改进。（5）在归纳整理近年来13个粮食主产省以及重庆、甘肃和新疆各省的气候资源数据、耕地数据、作物种植数据和农业技术数据基础上，建立农业基础数据库。应用多目标综合评价法对农业技术应对气候变化的能力进行评估，给出了各省农业种植二级区内应对和适应气候变化的农业技术推荐，为国家决策部门制定应对和适应气候变化的政策及区域农业的可持续发展提供技术支撑。本文从农业节水技术的内涵和外延入手，研究了气候变化背景下农业节水技术的适宜性评估问题和现有的农业节水技术的综合评价问题，以期引导不同区域适应气候变化的农业产业结构调整，指导现有农业技术的推广实施，促进农业可持续发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Global climate change has become a fact recognized all over the world. The rise of temperatureand the change of precipitation and sunshine would enhance the sensitivity of agricultural production.Promoting agricultural water-saving technology reasonably, is an important guarantee for agriculturalsustainable development in China. Therefore, it is critical to learn the basic situation of the climaticresources in China and find out the applied conditions of the agricultural water-saving technologies. Byevaluating the suitable areas of agricultural water-saving technologies, we would be able to mitigatedrought and cold damage caused by climate change, and promote the social sustainable development inChina.In this study, we focus on two research periods, i.e.,1981-2010and2011-2040under B₂scenario.We collected meteorological data, the crop growth period data, the basic agricultural production,national soil data and national DEM data, etc. By using GIS, stepwise multiple regression and grayprediction methods, we calculated the average annual temperature, rainfall, solar radiation, sowing timeand maturity time of maize and its planting efficiency in both periods. The objectives are （i） to constructthe evaluation index system of agricultural water-saving technology,（ii） to achieve the comprehensiveevaluation models of water-saving technologies through Rough set theory, fuzzy mathematical theoryand the analytic hierarchy process, were achieved, and （iii） to predict the suitable areas of plastic filmmulching, minimum tillage and no-tillage technology, and water harvesting technology in B₂scenario.So the assessment and recommendation of agricultural water-saving technologies were achieved. Themain conclusions are as followed:（1） During the period of1981-2010, the suitable areas of plastic film mulching maize in Chinaincluded: the south of Heilongjiang, the west of JiLin and Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, HeBei, ShanXi,HeNan, the north of JiangSu and AnHui, ShaanXi, GanSu, NingXia and XinJiang. For the period of2011-2040（B₂scenario）, the suitable areas may be expanded to Northeast of China （without GreaterKhingan Range area）, North China, and Northwest, the south of JiangSu and AnHui, the north ofJiangXi and ZheJiang provinces as compared with the1981-2010period.（2） The core meteorological factors of Minimum tillage and no-tillage were temperature andprecipitation, while the key indicators for climate suitability evaluation of minimum tillage andno-tillage were precipitation and≥10℃accumulated temperature. During the period of1981-2010,the suitable areas of minimum tillage and no-tillage maize in China included: the east of HeiLongJiangand Jilin, Liaoning; the southern part of HeBei and ShanXi, ShanDong, HeNan; the central and southernof ShaanXi, the Lower Yangtze Region, ChongQing, SiChuan, YunNan, GuiZhou and South China. Forthe period of2011-2040（B₂scenario）, the suitable areas would be expanded when compared with theperiod of1981-2010.（3） The suitable area water harvesting technology mainly includes: the west of HeiLongjiang Province, JiLin, LiaoNing, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, ShanXi, Eastern ShanDong, northern HeNan,ShaanXi, Eastern GanSu, southern NingXia, and Eastern SiChuan in the period of1981-2010. In the B₂scenario of2011-2040periods, the suitable regions of water harvesting technology may be moreconcentrated, and the low-level suitable areas would become smaller comparing with the period of1981-2010.（4） According to field survey and the Delphi method, the evaluation index of agriculturalwater-saving technology was constructed, which had considered ecological, economy and societyfactors. Using Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP）, Rough Set and ARM （a full evaluation model basedon AHP and Rough Set）, the existing major agricultural water-saving technologies, such as plasticmulch, straw mulch and furrow irrigation technologies were evaluated in WuWei City, GanSu province.The results showed that plastic mulch technology would be the best agricultural water-savingtechnology in the Northwest of China. However, straw mulch technology demonstrated a highecological benefit but low economic benefit.（5） We built the agricultural basic database based on climate resources data, cultivated land data,crop data and the data of agricultural technology across13major grain production provinces andChongQing, GanSu and XinJiang provinces. By using the multi-objective comprehensive evaluationmethod, we would be able to provide the recommended agricultural technologies for every second levelagricultural cultivation area in each province, and thus provide the technical support for regionalagriculture sustainable development.Overall, this study discovered the suitability assessment of agricultural technology under thebackground of climate change and the comprehensive evaluation for the existing water-savingagriculture technology. Based on the connotation and extension of agricultural water-savingtechnologies, our research would supply suitale agricultural structural adjustment to adapting climatechange and the implementation and promotion of agricultural technology, promote the agriculturesustainable development in different regions.更多还原