【作者】 任晓娜；

【导师】 孙东升；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业科学院 ， 农业经济管理， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 上个世纪80年代以来，气候变化问题受到全世界各国的广泛关注，尤其气候变化对粮食生产的影响因为涉及粮食安全而备受全世界关注。中国作为一个人口大国和粮食生产消费大国，基本实现国内外两个市场的互动，粮食品种、品质及数量的相互调剂；保持着约95%的粮食自给率，剩余5%左右的粮食需要世界市场来平衡。中国在2001年加入WTO后，于2004年调整了粮食贸易有关配额数量以及关税等贸易政策并延续至今。对于气候变化这个不争的事实，未来中国粮食安全和贸易政策的调整变化对粮食进出口、其他农业以及非农产业等会带来什么影响，是一个很有实践和理论价值的问题。本研究致力于在未来不同气候情景下，粮食生产及贸易政策的调整会对我国粮食安全及贸易产生什么样的影响，并提出政策建议。基于已有文献和相关理论资料的回顾与分析，本研究主要集中在以下两个方面：首先，梳理了中国粮食生产和贸易以及粮食主产区气候变化的基本情况，确定气候变化对粮食安全和贸易的影响机制“气候条件——粮食产量——粮食贸易——粮食安全”；其次，整理分析了中国粮食生产、贸易政策的发展变化，并做了国际比较分析。针对未来不同的气候变化情景，利用GTAP模型对未来不同气候情景下各种粮食贸易政策方案进行模拟，并评价政策影响效果。在研究方法上，第一方面，选择了粮食贸易引力模型对粮食贸易的影响因素进行研究分析。第二方面，回顾了国内外不同的粮食贸易政策后，采用GTAP8模型对不同的政策方案情景进行模拟，对不断增加的国内支持数额和调整后的配额制度政策进行评价分析。本研究的主要结论和建议如下：1.随着气候变化的发展，气温、光照和降水以及二氧化碳排放量等气候条件将会影响粮食产量，A2、B2情景下粮食产量变化不同。但都要增加粮食生产国内支持政策的实施力度，努力提高粮食单产。除了不断增加“黄箱”投入，还要增加“绿箱”和“蓝箱”投入。2.中国粮食基本能够自给，但是未来玉米缺口较大，要适时调整粮食配额制度。不论哪种气候变化情景和与气候变化情景相对应的社会经济情景，随着粮食需求的增加，进口压力加大，要适时调整进口配额。3.中国未来对粮食生产的国内支持政策将不断加强，政策效果在B2情景下比A2情景更明显。在增加对粮食生产投入和改变配额同时，要保护种粮农民积极性和提高种粮农民收入，还要照顾其他产业或行业。WTO规定“黄箱”政策不能超过农业产值的8.5%。假设2020年粮食补贴金额分别达到粮食产值的5.5%、6.5%和7.5%，A2情景下粮食产量将会分别上升1.45%、1.70%和1.95%，粮食的价格将会分别下降3.2%、3.75%和4.28%，粮食的出口将会分别上升18.4%、22%和25.6%；B2情景下粮食的产量将会分别上升1.57%、1.84%和2.11%，粮食的价格将会分别下降3.35%、3.93%和4.49%，粮食的出口将会分别上升19.38%、23.14%和26.97%。随着粮食补贴的增加，一方面，粮食产量上升，价格下降，人们的福利提高；另一方面，粮食价格的下降幅度要比粮食产量上升幅度高，总体看来对粮农收益的影响为负。这就要在人们福利提高的同时，注意对种粮农民积极性的保护和农民粮食收入的提高。4.包括配额数量和配额关税变化的粮食贸易政策在未来要适时调整，首当其冲的可能是玉米；对玉米配额的调整要慎重。假设2020年玉米配额外关税由目前的65%分别下降到40%、20%和1%（即取消配额关税基本实现自由贸易），A2情景下玉米的产量将会分别下降0.35%、0.74%和1.18%，玉米的价格将会分别下降0.18%、0.39%和0.62%，玉米的进口将会分别上升22.97%、55.06%和101.95%；B2情景玉米的产量将会分别下降0.37%、0.78%和1.24%，价格将会分别下降0.17%、0.37%和0.59%，玉米的进口将会分别上升22.72%、54.458%和100.82%。水稻、小麦以及其他农业产业产量上升，价格下降，出口增加。A2和B2两种情景下，配额政策的逐步宽松对总体经济的影响是复杂变化的，并不是越松越好。从模拟结果看玉米配额逐渐加大对整体经济的影响并不总是积极影响，要慎重。5、完善相关法律法规，提高全民气候变化适应意识，实现粮食安全要兼顾农业发展的可持续。根据研究结果看，同样的支持力度，多数情况下在B2气候情景下效果更优。这就从另一个角度说明了经济发展一定要兼顾环境，粮食的生产也是如此。从世界各国的经验和我国长期发展来看，健全和完善我国粮食的支持保护制度，提高全民气候变化适应意识，完善与之相适应的宏观调控制度和安全预警、贸易救济等工作，符合我国长远利益。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the1980s, climate change has been widespread concerned around the world. In particular,the impact of climate change on food production is given worldwide attention because it involves foodsecurity. China as a large population, food production and consumption country, it almost realizes theinteraction of domestic and international markets, mutual adjustment of variety, quality and quantity offood. It has about95%food self-sufficiency, and the other5%food is supplied from the world market.After China joined WTO in2001,and it adjusted the grain trade policies such as about quota and tariff in2004, and they continue to this day. As an indisputable fact of climate change, the impact of futureChina’s food security and trade policy adjustments on food import and export, other agricultural andnonagricultural industries is a very practical and theoretical-value problem. Under different climatescenarios, this research is devoted to studying the impact of food production and trade policy adjustmenton China’s food security and trade, and to putting forward policy recommendations.Based on the review and analysis of existing literature and theoretical data, this research is mainlyconcentrated in the following two aspects. Firstly, the basic situation of China’s grain production andtrade as well as major grain producing areas’ climate change was analyzed. And the impact mechanismof climate change on food security and trade,"climate conditions-food production-food trade-foodsecurity” was determined. Secondly, the development and change of China’s grain production and tradepolicy was analyzed. For different climate change scenarios, the grain trade different policy wassimulated using the GTAP model, and to simulate, and the effectiveness of the policy implications wasevaluated.In research methodology, the first aspect, food trade gravity model was used to study theinfluencing factors of grain trade. Secondly, after reviewing the domestic and international food tradepolicy, GTAP8model was used to simulate the different policy scenarios, and to evaluate the increasingamount of domestic support and the adjusted quota system.The main conclusions and recommendations of this research are as follows:1.With the development of climate change, temperature, sunshine, precipitation and carbon dioxideemissions and other climate conditions will affect food production. Grain yield is different under A2andB2scenarios. But both need increase the implementation of domestic support policies, and strive toimprove the yield of grain per unit. While the "amber box" investment is increased, the "green box" and"blue box" input will be also increased.2.China is almost food self-sufficient, but in the future the corn will have a big shortage. So thegrain quota system need timely adjusted. Regardless of what kind of climate change scenarios and thecorresponding socio-economic scenarios, with increasing demand of grain, the import pressureincreases and import quotas need timely adjust.China’s future domestic support policies on food production will be strengthened continually, andthe policy effects will much more obvious in B2than A2scenario. To increase food production inputsand change the quota, the nation should not only protect farmers’ enthusiasm for growing grain and improve the income of them, but also take care of other industries.3.Assume that the amount of grain subsidies of the grain output in2020were5.5%,6.5%and7.5%in A2scenario, grain production would be increased by1.45%,1.70%and1.95%, grain price decreasedby3.2%,3.75%,4.28%, grain export increased by18.4%and,22%and25.6%. In B2scenario, thecorresponding data would be1.57%,1.84%and2.11%,3.35%,3.93%and4.49%,19.38%,23.14%and26.97%.With the increase in grain subsidies, on the one hand, grain yield increases and price decreases, thewelfare of the people is improved. On the other hand, the scope of price decline is higher than that ofgrain yield increase. Whereas, the overall effect on farmers’ income is negative. This is necessary toimprove people’s welfare. And at the same time, the protection of farmers’ enthusiasm and grain incomeshould be paid more attention.4.The quota quantity and quota tariff changes in the grain trade policy should be adjusted timely inthe future. The corn will be bore the brunt, and its corn quota adjustment must be cautious.Assume that corn quota tariff rate decreased from the current65%to40%,20%and1%in2020under A2scenario (the quota tariff was cancelled to realize free trade). Corn production would bedecreased by0.35%,0.74%and1.18%, corn price decreased by0.18%,0.39%,0.62%, corn importincreased by22.97%and,55.06%and101.95%. Under B2scenario, the corresponding data would be0.37%,0.78%and1.24%,0.17%,0.37%and0.59%,22.72%、54.458%和100.82%，The production ofrice, wheat and other agricultural industries would increase, their prices decreased, and their exportincreased.Under A2and B2scenarios, is a complex change, not the looser the better. The simulation resultshows that the impact of gradually increasing corn quota on the overall economy is not always apositive. So it must be cautious.5.The research result shows that policy effect in most cases is better under B2scenario at the samesupport. From another view, it proves that economic development must take into account theenvironment; grain production is also the same. From the world nations’ experience and China’slong-term development, to better China’s grain support and protection system, to enhance theconsciousness of people’s adaptation to climate change and to improve the correspondingmacroeconomic regulation systems and security warning, trade remedy and other jobs are in line withour long-term benefits.更多还原