【作者】 吕晓英；

【导师】 李先德；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业科学院 ， 农产品贸易， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 可持续发展是政策性农业保险的核心问题。2004年中国农业保险新一轮试点以来，国内试点地区形成了多种政策性农业保险发展模式，最突出的问题是农业巨灾风险管理制度尚不完善，农业保险长效机制的建设严重滞后，制约了农业保险的可持续发展。由于试点的时间较短，数据资料有限，还难以利用保险的精算技术对农业保险发展模式的可持续性进行检验。系统动力学被称为“战略与策略的‘实验室’”。农业保险的运作具有动态和反馈特征，适宜应用系统动力学原理和方法对保险参与主体的行为趋势进行动态模拟，以此对农业保险发展模式的可持续性进行超前性检验，但国内外尚未见到同类研究的成果。论文的研究目的，一是构建我国农业保险的系统动力学模型，通过农业巨灾风险的情景假设，检验我国政策性农业保险主要发展模式的可持续性；二是设计我国政策性农业保险可持续发展的基本模式，并通过实际应用，检验设计的合理性。为此，论文在分析农业保险的经济学理论和国内外农业保险发展模式的基础上，首先运用系统动力学原理和方法，分别构建了在国内具有代表性的江苏省和北京市农业保险的系统动力学模型，对“江苏模式”和“北京模式”的可持续性进行了检验与改进。“江苏模式”的模拟研究，以徐州市为代表，以市所辖各区、县为基本研究单位，对未来20年可能发生的农业巨灾风险，设计了五种情景类型17种方案，通过动态模拟，展示了保险公司和区、市、省级政府巨灾准备金可承受的最高赔付率变化趋势。为了改进和完善“江苏模式”，论文又设计了两类新模式6种方案，并对模拟结果与未改进的方案进行比较。模拟结果表明，同时改进保险公司和区县巨灾准备金超赔时使用方式的新模式，提高了政府资金运作的效率，增强了保险公司和区县应对农业巨灾风险冲击的能力，有利于全面实现“江苏模式”的可持续发展。在“北京模式”中，设计了10种不同组合方案，模拟时间为2000～2030年。通过动态模拟，对政府购买再保险与政府直接提供超赔再保险以及由原保险公司直接向再保险公司分保等运作方式进行了比较。认为北京市实行的由政府向再保险公司购买赔付率超赔再保险的运作方式，不能实现政府财政资金使用效率的最优。其次，依据农业保险可持续发展的要求，论文从经营组织和运作方式等方面设计了我国政策性农业保险的“基本框架下的区域差别化发展模式”，分析了农业保险基本模式的内部反馈结构，提出了农业巨灾五级超赔保障体系。最后，以北京市农业保险为例，对“基本模式”设计的合理性进行了比较和检验。结果表明，“基本模式”设计合理，有利于提高政府资金使用效率和保险公司持续经营的能力，可以在我国不同区域农业保险发展模式的改进和完善中参考。论文的创新之处是，首次将系统动力学应用于我国农业保险发展模式的模拟研究，为农业保险的政策和策略分析探索了新的研究思路和方法；对“江苏模式”和“北京模式”的可持续发展进行了检验和改进，设计了我国政策性农业保险可持续发展的“基本模式”，提出了具有可操作性的农业巨灾风险五级超赔保障体系，对于完善我国政策性农业保险制度，提高农业保险发展模式的可持续能力具有重要的理论和实践意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 The sustainable development is key issue of policy-oriented agricultural insurance. Since newpilot experiment of agricultural insurance implemented in2004，many provinces of China have formeddifferent kinds of development modes of agricultural insurance. The prominent problem lies inimperfect of catastrophic risk management system and lag in establishment of long-term mechanism,which constraint sustainable development of agricultural insurance. Due to short pilot time and lack ofdata, it is hard to apply actuarial method to test the sustainability of these modes. The system dynamicsis called lab of policy and tragedy. The operation of agricultural insurance has properties of dynamicand feedback, so the method of system dynamics is valid in analyzing behavior of participants ofagricultural insurance for test the sustainability of these modes in advance, yet there is few suchdomestic and international research.One purpose of the research is to build system dynamic models to test whether main modes ofagricultural insurance in China were sustainable under different catastrophic risk scenarios. The otherpurpose is to design basic mode of sustainable development for policy-oriented agricultural insurance inChina and to test the basic mode through application.Based on theory of agricultural insurance and analysis of agricultural insurance operation modesin China and foreign countries, firstly, system dynamic models of typical agricultural insurance modesin Jiangsu province and Beijing city are respectively built to test the sustainability of two modes and toimprove the system of agricultural insurance.As for agricultural insurance in Jiangsu province of China, the simulation research takes Xuzhoucity as example, subdivided into counties.17scenarios grouped five types are designed to reveal thetrends of catastrophe reserves of insurer and government in counties, city and province undercatastrophe in future20years.6scenarios grouped two types are proposed to improve the mode ofagricultural insurance in Jiangsu. The results of simulation indicate that rules revisions of usingcatastrophe reserve of insurer and counties’ government to indemnity simultaneously improve theoperation efficiency of government funds, strengthen the ability of insurer and counties’ government todeal with catastrophe, and contributes to sustainable development of agricultural insurance in Jiangsu.Similarly,10scenarios are designed to dynamically simulate the operation mode of agriculturalinsurance in Beijing in2000-2030. Three reinsurance modes which include stop-loss reinsurancepurchased by government from reinsurer, government providing reinsurance for insurer and reinsurancepurchased by insurer from reinsurer are compared. The result indicates that current operation mode ofstop-loss reinsurance purchased by government from reinsurance companies doesn’t optimize usageefficiency of government funds.Secondly, according to requirement of sustainable development, the basic frame of policy-orientedagricultural insurance with regional differentiation in China is designed from aspects of organizationand operation mode and the inner structure of the basic mode is analyzed. Moreover,5levels protestsystem under catastrophic risk is proposed in basic mode. Finally, the research compares and tests thedesign of basic mode, taking agricultural insurance in Beijing as example. Results indicate that the basicmode of agricultural insurance is designed rationally and contributes to increasing efficiency in the useof government funds and sustainability of insurer, which is likely to be as a reference for improving theagricultural insurance system in different region of China.The innovation of the study lies in first applying system dynamics to simulation for sustainabilityof development modes in agricultural insurance, thus explores a new method of policy analysis on agricultural insurance. Furthermore, the research tests the sustainability of agricultural insurance modesin Jiangsu province and in Beijing, designs basic mode of sustainable development for agriculturalinsurance in China and proposes applicable five levels catastrophic risk protest system of excess loss,which made theoretical and practical sense for perfecting the system of China’s agricultural insuranceand enhancing sustainability of development modes in agricultural insurance.更多还原