【作者】 吕素冰；

【导师】 许士国；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 经济社会高速发展过程中,水资源供需矛盾激化和水生态环境恶化情势非常突出。受其驱使,对水资源的认知定位和开发利用方式也在不断发展变化,水资源功能的体现和效益的发挥也存在不同层面。本文从用水保证率以及水源开发利用的角度,将水资源分为常规水资源和非常规水资源,针对其利用产生的边际效益、生态服务功能效益和区域综合效益进行定性分析和定量评估,并提出用水结构的演化趋势。主要研究内容与成果如下：(1)水资源利用效益分析分析常规和非常规水资源的不同利用方式,从多角度分析水资源利用效益：一是从生产力角度出发,根据农业、工业和生活用水的用水结构配置,计算其边际效益,定量分析水要素对不同产业增长的贡献程度；二是从水的生态服务功能出发,依据湿地等水生态类型发挥的生态服务功能,产生物质生产、大气水文调节、文化休闲、生命支持等方面的生态服务功能效益；三是从区域用水的整体性出发,通过用水结构耦合用水效益,综合评估直接经济效益、生态环境效益和经济社会效益。(2)白城地区地下水利用及边际效益计算作为我国商品粮基地和典型干旱缺水地区,吉林省西北部白城地区以地下水利用为主,其农业用水占用水总量的85%-95%,耕地面积增加和高耗水种植业产值的上升是农业用水居高不下的主要原因。水资源对农业、工业和生活产值的贡献率分别为33.6%、22.8%和42.3%,农业用水、工业用水和生活用水边际效益比例为1：15：15。据此,水资源产出与水量投入相悖,一方面与产业自身不同的技术密集程度有关,另一方面也是当地重农业、轻工业的经济发展模式导致了整体用水效益偏低。(3)湿地洪水资源利用生态服务功能效益计算湿地是具有多功能的水生态系统,针对湿地普遍缺水、面积萎缩的大环境,以白城地区莫莫格湿地和向海湿地2003-2009年洪水资源利用实践为例,七年内引蓄嫩江和洮儿河洪水资源总量3.99×108m3,产生的生态服务功能效益逾1.52×109元(2009年价),引蓄1m3洪水的效益为3.81元/(m3.年),其中经济效益、生态效益和社会效益分别为0.98×108元、12.01×108元和2.20×108元,生态效益最为显著,突出了在缺水状态下,洪水资源作为非常规水资源对湿地生态服务功能的补给作用。(4)区域洪水资源利用综合效益指标体系的构建与评估当对常规水资源的需求大于供给时,区域中小频率洪水的利用效益可观。结合常规水资源的用水路径和洪水灾害损失,界定洪水资源利用效益的概念,并构建涵盖直接经济效益、生态环境效益和经济社会效益的洪水资源利用效益指标体系。以白城地区连续多年洪水资源利用实践为例,建立其效益指标体系并利用可变模糊模式识别模型量化评估。结果表明洪水资源利用在干旱地区可行,其效益大小与洪水利用量高度相关,而且越干旱年份,效益的体现越明显。(5)用水结构演化趋势及预测从区域和全国两个尺度分析用水结构演化趋势。对于白城地区,其地下水利用农业用水比重偏大,但是洪水资源利用的水量补给弱化了用水结构的单一性,洪水资源和地下水综合开发利用有利于用水结构的合理化发展；对于避开了特定区域特殊性的全国范围,1997-2010年各产业边际效益均明显提升,并且农业、工业、生活用水的边际效益比例约为1：25：50,这在一定程度上解释了农业用水逐年下降、工业和生活用水增长并且生活用水增长率大于工业用水的现状,表明了水资源在产业间“趋利性”流动。通过预测,1997-2020年用水结构信息熵呈现倒“U”型变化趋势,用水结构更为合理,与之相对应的用水产出效益也将更显著。更多还原

【Abstract】 Driven by the problems such as imbalance between water supply and demand, water environmental degradation and frequency of floods and droughts generated in the process of water resources utilization, the cognizance and utilization of water are constantly evolving and moreover the water function and benefits. In this paper, the marginal benefits, ecological service benefits and regional integrated benefits are analyzed and assessed based on conventional and unconventional water utilization. And the evolution of water consumed structure is discussed. The main research results are summarized as follows:(1) Defination of water use benefitsThree benefits of water resources utilization are defined according to conventional water and floodwater utilization. Firstly, the agricultural, industrial and domestic marginal benefits are calculated to quantitatively analyze contribution of water to the growth of different industries. Secondly, emphasizing on the water ecological service functions, the goods production, water and gas regulation, recreation and culture benefits are analyzed in monetary terms. Finally, considering the integrity of regional water utilization, the integrated economic, ecological and social benefits are assessed via built the benefits indices system of water utilization.(2) Analysis of water use and calculation of marginal benefits in Baicheng regionBaicheng region situated in the north-west Jilin province is the commodity grain base and classical drought region of China. The agricultural water consumption is accounted for85%-95%of the total water consumption, and water consumed structure maintains in a lower orderly state which means the singleness of water consumption in Baicheng region.The contributions of water to agricultural, industrial and domestic outputs are33.6%,22.8%and42.3%, and ratio of the corresponding marginal benefits is1:15:15. The results showed the conflicts between water inputs and outputs. Although the water outputs are related to the industrial intensity, the unreasonable of local water consumed stricture and water allocations is obviously.(3) Wetland evaluation of floodwater utilizationWetland is a multi-functional ecosystem, and most wetlands are subjected to water shortage and area shrinkage. Take Momoge wetland and Xianghai wetland in Baicheng region as example, the floodwater diverted from Nenjiang and Tao’er River is399million cubic meter from2003to2009, which translates into a monetary benefits of about1.52billion RMB in2009price, and the ratio of economic benefit, eco-environmental benefit and social benefit is1:12:2. The huge eco-environmental value verifies the environmental regulation function of wetland as "Earth’s Kidneys" and the replenishment of floodwater to wetlands in the condition of water shortage.(4) Construction and evaluation of regional floodwater utilizationThe utilization of small and medium frequency of floodwater has remarkable benefits when conventional water supply is scarce relative to its demands. The concepts and categories of regional floodwater utilization benefits are defined according to flood loss analysis and conventional water path, and then the benefits indices system containing direct economic benefit, eco-environmental benefit and economic social benefit is built and assessed by the variable fuzzy pattern recognition model. The assessment results of benefits indices system of floodwater utilization in Baicheng region illuminates the feasibility of floodwater utilization in arid regions and there has a highly correlation between the benefits and floodwater utilization volume, and floodwater has more significant replenishment in the more water shortage areas and years.(5) Assessment and forecast of water useFor the Baicheng region, the sound evolution of water consumed structure is forced by floodwater utilization. Avoiding the particularity of specific region, the marginal benefits and the dynamic change of national water consumption are analyzed in a macro point of view. The industrial marginal benefits are advanced from1997to2010, and the ratio of agricultural marginal benefit, industrial marginal benefits and domestic marginal benefits is1:25:50. The results can explain the decrease of agricultural water consumption and the increase of industrial and domestic water consumption and the growth rate of domestic water consumption greater than industrial water consumption, which illuminates the benefit-orientation of water flow among industries. National water consumption from2010to2020is forecasted which shows the positive development trend and then the water consumption benefits will be more marked correspondingly.更多还原