【作者】 李建强；

【导师】 孙文基；

【作者基本信息】 苏州大学 ， 财政学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 消费、投资和净出口是拉动一国经济增长的“三驾马车”。实际上，投资是消费的一种引致需求，如果没有消费支撑，那么投资将成为无效投资。净出口更是一种不足以维持经济长期增长的需求，它很容易受到国际贸易伙伴经济景气状况的影响和国际贸易摩擦争端的困扰。因此，消费才是拉动经济增长的最终需求。恰恰相反，我国是一种“投资驱动，出口拉动”的经济增长模式，居民消费严重不足。为了应对2007年全球经济危机，2008年政府推出总额高达4万亿元公共投资计划，用以拉动国内居民消费。不过，人们对于这类扩张性的财政支出政策都怀有一些疑虑：财政支出的增加是否会挤出居民消费呢？如果不是，财政支出又能在多大程度上带动居民消费呢？于是，在我国经济转型的背景下，从财政支出的规模、结构以及不确定性三个层面上，考察和分析我国财政支出对居民消费的影响就成为本文写作的初衷。在前人研究基础上，本文就我国财政支出对居民消费的影响进行理论分析和实证研究。在理论分析上，回顾和评述历史上主要经济学派的居民消费理论和思想主张，并利用动态随机一般均衡模型对我国财政支出与居民消费之间的关系进行动态数值模拟研究；在实证研究上，利用前沿面板计量经济方法，以我国改革开放后数据为样本，较为系统的分析我国财政支出规模、结构以及不确定性对居民消费的影响。通过研究，可以得出一些基本结论：第一，我国财政支出对居民消费具有挤入效应。这说明现阶段财政支出的扩张并不会挤出居民消费，反而在某种程度上挤入了居民消费，肯定了扩张性财政政策带动内需的有效性。第二，政府规模扩张不会降低我国财政支出对居民消费的挤入效应，而税收规模和债务规模的增加，将减弱我国财政支出对居民消费的挤入效应。这意味着政府为稳定财政扩张对居民消费的挤入效应会被为之增加的税收或债务所抵消，从而降低扩大内需的有效性。第三，财政社会性支出对居民消费具有显著的持续性挤入效应，并且它对城乡居民消费、地区居民消费以及不同收入阶层居民消费的挤入效应都表现出一定的差异性。这说明我国公共福利资源配置不均，社会性支出差异已引起了城乡之间、地区之间以及不同收入阶层之间的居民消费差距拉大。第四，财政支出不确定性对居民消费影响的传导路径为：经济转型带来的公共福利制度不确定性→居民对政府在公共福利领域财政支出预期的不确定性→居民对未来收支预期的不确定性→居民预防性储蓄动机增加和预期流动性约束增加→居民当期消费减少，得到我国经验数据实证检验的支持。当然，我们不仅要对拉动内需的积极财政支出政策作出客观、公正、科学的评价，更重要的是，总结我国经济转型时期财政支出政策的经验教训，发现当前财政支出政策的不足，为将来财政支出政策进一步的完善献计献策。因此，针对研究结论，本文提出六点对策和建议：（1）合理控制政府消费支出规模，稳定当前经济形势；（2）进步优化财政支出结构，凸显民生理念和巩固民生成果；（3）积极调整财政支出方向，缩小城乡和地区居民消费差距；（4）科学确定财政支出的目标人群，加大政策操作灵活性；（5）加快完善社会保障体制，打消居民消费的后顾之忧；（6）加强改善公共治理机制，提高财政支出效率。诚然，鉴于个人学术修养的限制，研究工作尚存诸多不足。为此，本文在最后部分对本研究的局限和未来研究方向进行了明确。更多还原

【Abstract】 Consumption,investment and net export have become “the three carriages” whichstimulates economic growth. In fact, investment is a derived demand from consumption. Ifthere is no support of consumption, the investment will become ineffective investment. Netexport is even not enough to keep economic sustained growth, because it is vulnerable toaffected by international trade partners economic prosperity condition and puzzled byinternational trade friction dispute. Therefore, consumption is the final demand whichstimulates economic growth. On the contrary, Chinese economic growth is “drived byinvest,pulled by export”. Household consumption is serious insufficient in China. In orderto deal with the global financial crisis in2007, government launched a total4trillion Yuanpublic investment program in China to boost domestic consumption. However, faced theexpansion fiscal expenditure policy, people have some doubts: Whether the expansion offiscal expenditure crowed-out household consumption or not. If not，to what extent doesfiscal expenditure promote household consumption. Therefore, under the background ofChina’s economic transition, from three levels such as fiscal expenditure scale, structureand uncertainty, studying the effect of fiscal expenditure on household consumption hasbecome the writing purpose of this paper.On the basis of previous studies, this paper has theoretical analysis and empiricalresearch on the impact of fiscal expenditure on household consumption in China. In theterms of theoretical analysis, this paper review and comment on the household theory andthoughts of the main school, and make dynamic numerical simulation on the relationshipbetween fiscal expenditure and household consumption in China through dynamicstochastic general equilibrium model. In the terms of empirical study, with data afterreform and opening-up in China as sample, this paper makes a systematic analysis on theimpact of fiscal expenditure scal, structure and uncertainty on household consumptionthrough front panel data econometric method. Through the study, some conclusions can be draw.Firstly, Fiscal expenditure scal or gross has a crowding-in effect on householdconsumption in China. The expansion of the current fiscal expenditure does not crowd-outhousehold consumption instead of crowding-in household consumption to a certain extent,which affirmed the expansionary fiscal policy increases domestic demand effectively.Secondly, the expansion of government spending does not lead to a sharp drop in thecrowding-in effect of fiscal expenditure toward household consumption. On the contrary,with tax burden and debt scal increasing, the crowding-in effect of fiscal expenditure tohousehold consumption is gradually weakened and even changes into the crowding-outeffect. This means government takes tax or debt financing to stabilize fiscal expansionwhich may has a crowding-out effect on household consumption, thereby reducing itseffectiveness in the domestic demand expansion.Thirdly, fiscal social expenditure has significant and persistent crowding-in effect onhousehold consumption and the crowding-in effect shows some differences between urbanand rural, some differences in areas and some differences in different income levelhousehold. This means public welfare resources dispose unevenness in China and socialexpenditure differences have caused the gap between urban and rural householdconsumption, the gap in areas household consumption and the gap in different incomelevel household consumption.Fourthly, the impact conduction path of fiscal expenditure uncertainty on householdconsumption is such as: the public welfare system uncertainty caused by economictransition→fiscal expenditure expected uncertainty of household to government in publicwelfare field→the future expenditures expected uncertainty of household→increasingprecautionary saving motive and expected liquidity constraints→reducing consumption.This is supported by empirical testing on empirical data in China.Of course, we not only need to make a objective, impartial, scientific evaluation forexpansion fiscal policy increasing household consumption, but also it is important to sumup experience and lessons in China’s economic transition, to find insufficient of the currentfiscal expenditure and to put forward further perfect suggestions for future fiscalexpenditure. Therefore, according to research conclusions, this paper put forward sixcountermeasures and suggestions:(1) reasonable controlling government consumptionexpenditure scale, making the stability of the current economic situation;(2) further optimizing the fiscal expenditure structure, highlighting the people’s livelihood conceptand consolidateing the achievement;(3) actively adjusting the direction of fiscalexpenditure, contracting the consumption gap between urban and rural and in regions;(4)scientific determining the fiscal expenditure target population, increasing policy flexibilityof operation;(5) accelerating to perfect social security system, to eliminate worry ofhousehold consumption;(6) strongly improving the public governance mechanism,improving the efficiency of fiscal expenditure.Admittedly, due to the restrictions of personal academic literacy, the research workstill remains some shortcomings. Therefore, the author presents the limitations of this studyand the future research directions in the last part of this paper.更多还原