【作者】 周一欣；

【导师】 高新才；

【作者基本信息】 兰州大学 ， 区域经济学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 区域产业结构是区域内(国家或者地区等)具有不同发展功能的产业部门之间的配置比例和相互关系,它对于一个国家或者地区的经济发展水平以及国民经济的效率和效益都起着至关重要的决定性作用。自上世纪80年代以来,区域产业结构趋同问题引起了我国许多学者的广泛关注和讨论,与其有关的理论及实证研究成果都较为丰富。但大多数已有的研究着眼于克服产业结构趋同而展开,其前提暗含了产业结构趋同具有“不合理”因素的价值判断。本文在完成过程中通过大量调查研究发现,产业结构趋同问题鉴于其产生原因的多样性与复杂性,是具有一定合理性与必然性的。在研究产业结构趋同问题对于经济发展以及产业发展危害性的同时,也应当认清其合理性、正面效应和积极影响。论文首先对国内外产业结构趋同研究的相关文献资料加以综述,在梳理现有研究成果的基础之上,结合对区域经济的理解,对区域产业结构以及产业结构趋同等概念进行了定义,并对研究对象及范围加以界定。回顾总结产业结构理论中产业划分理论、产业布局理论、结构演变趋势理论以及结构调整理论的基础上指出了上述相关理论在区域产业发展过程中的重要指导作用,说明了区域产业结构在区域经济发展中的积极意义。本论文的主要工作是通过工业产值构成、霍夫曼系数、相似性系数和区位熵等四种指标,对西北五省区2000年至2009年十年间的的工业行业数据加以测度。结果显示西北地区工业产业结构存在趋同问题,具体来看：各省区工业产值构成角度的考察结果表明,西北五省区工业产值排名前十的行业相似性较大,且多数集中在资源型产业；霍夫曼系数指标的考察结果表明,西北地区轻重工业构成相似性极高,且存在明显的趋同趋势；产业结构相似性系数指标的测度结果表明西北地区产业结构差异度逐步减小,表现出趋同趋势；区位熵指标的分析结果表明,西北五省的专业化分工主要以石油、天然气、煤炭等资源为基础,优势都集中在资源型产业,具有同构性。在此基础上,本文试图将经济趋同分析中通常采用的α趋同以及β趋同假设检验引入到产业结构趋同的检验当中,检验结果表明无论从行业的水平角度或是结构份额角度来看,纺织业、金属制品业、通信设备计算机及其他电子设备制造业、石油加工炼焦及核燃料加工业、石油和天然气开采业、化学原料及化学制品制造业、电器机械及器材制造业等七个行业都存在着明显的趋同。检验结果与产业结构测度结果相吻合,说明西北地区的确存在一定程度的产业趋同问题。最后,本文深入探讨了产业结构趋同的效应及形成机制,通过对区域产业结构及其特性、区域产业结构趋同形成的可能条件以及影响因素等方面的分析,探讨了西北地区工业产业结构趋同存在的可能性与必然性,并阐述了其合理性与非合理性,针对产业结构趋同对于经济发展的正面效应与负面影响进行了理论分析与实证检验,为实现西北五省区区域经济协调发展提供决策参考依据,并对西北地区工业产业结构调整和升级提出了政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Regional industry structure is the proportion and relationship of different industry segments within a region or a country. It plays an important role in determining the efficiency and effectiveness of a country or region’s economy. Since 1980’s, regional industry structure similarity has attracted great interests among researchers and resulted in many theoretical and empirical studies. However, most studies deem regional industry structure similarity a negative phenomenon and believe that it should be diminished. In fact, regional industry structure similarity is inevitable in some certain periods of economic development. While recognizing the negative effects of such a phenomenon on economic development, one should also realize its positive effects.In this dissertation, we first review existing studies of regional industry structure similarity, define regional industry structure and industry structure similarity, and fix the subjects of the present study and our primary interests. Then we briefly recall the origin of industry structure theory, industry classification, industry development, and industry structure evolution, and industry structure adjustment and recognize the guiding role they play in regional industry development, and explain the positive effects that a suitable industry structure have on regional economic developmentIn the second part, using the past ten-years’s data on the 25 industries in the five western provinces, we first inspect industry structure similarity using industry output ratios and we find the top ten industries are quite similar and concentrate on resource industries. Then applying the ratio of industry structure similarity, we quantize leading industries by hoffman coefficient and show that the structure of light and heavy industries are similar. After doing the authentic research by using the industry structure similarity coefficient, we can find the industry structures become more convergence. Furthermore, the analytical results by quotient of location reveal that specialization in the five western provinces are mainly primarily on resources of petroleum and natural gas and coal, and industry structures are more similar. Based on the results obtained in Chapter 4, we apply alpha and beta similarity hypothesis test to study industry structure similarities. Our results show textile industries, metalwork industries, communication equipment, computer, and other electronics industries, petroleum refinement and nuclear fuel industries, and petroleum and natural gas exploration industries, and chemical industries, and electronic equipment industries have a trend of convergence while paper industry, transportation equipment industry are more diverse.At the end we discuss the underlying mechanism of industry structure convergence. We point out that industry structure convergence is inevitable form the underlying factors that lead to and affect such a phenomenon. We discuss the positive and negative effects of industry structure convergence on economic development, from both theoretical and empirical perspectives.更多还原