【作者】 陆张维；

【导师】 吴次芳；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 土地资源管理， 2012， 博士

【副题名】基于城市复杂系统的视角

【摘要】 当前我国经济正处于快速增长阶段,工业化、城市化水平不断提高,一个显著特征就是对土地的需求日益膨胀,建设用地总量频频突破规划。而土地资源的稀缺性和不可再生性,再加上中国人多地少的现实,导致建设用地日趋紧张,已经成为目前经济发展中最主要的限制瓶颈之一。另一方面,在国家不断加强耕地保护,保证国家粮食安全的大背景下,要求在土地利用总体规划中,落实上级规划确定的各类用地控制指标和空间布局要求,做到图数一致。因此,如何将有限的建设用地资源落实到空间上,实现建设用地的合理布局,发挥建设用地的最大效益,保障社会经济又好又快发展,已经成为了现阶段我国土地利用总体规划编制的重要任务。同时,中心城区建设用地是区域经济发展的核心与载体,其布局优化直接关系到整个区域社会经济的可持续发展和生态环境的保护,对于引导和控制未来的土地利用有着重要意义。目前,城市的发展过程,被普遍认为是一个复杂系统,具有动态性、开放性、自组织性和非平衡性等耗散结构特征。同时,城市也存在着他组织,其发展过程受到人为意志的宏观干预,需要通过规划协调各子系统、各行为主体多元目标间产生的矛盾,弥补城市自组织过程中存在的自发性、盲目性和滞后性的缺陷。因此,本文基于城市复杂系统的视角,对土地利用总体规划中心城区建设用地优化布局进行理论与实证的研究,试图实现城市用地规划的他组织作用与城市发展自组织规律的协调发展。主要研究结论如下：(1)通过计算机仿真模拟发现：当规划与城市发展的自组织规律相协调时,不论是经济效益还是社会效益和生态效益,都将有所提高。冒险的决策主体偏好经济效益,而谨慎的决策主体相对来说偏好社会效益和生态效益。所以对于冒险的决策主体,只有当规划符合城市发展的自组织规律时,其用地开发才会更好的符合规划,也才能避免蔓延式、跳跃式的开发；对于谨慎的决策主体,只有当规划符合城市发展的自组织规律时,才能提高城市开发的经济价值。另外,当规划符合城市发展的自组织规律时,提高规划执行力度对于促进城市开发的社会效益和生态效益大有裨益。为了使提高规划执行力度变得更有价值,必须确保规划布局符合城市发展的自组织规律。(2)基于适宜性评价的中心城区建设用地布局可以有效确定未来城市发展的优势区位,引导城市紧凑化发展,抑制城市沿主干道蔓延式发展,而代之以沿城市主干道填充式开发。其不足之处是,基于适宜性评价的中心城区建设用地布局是一种自上而下的布局方式,难以体现邻域的动态影响、局部规则的交互作用所导致的空间格局,不足以区分较小范围内不同空间之间的异质性,所以倾向于集中式的布局。然而现实情况是任何区域的城市开发主体都有着追求经济利益的动机,已有建城区周边具有较好区位条件的地块都有可能被开发,城市集中式开发过程中始终伴随着分散式的开发。因此,自上而下的建设用地布局方法由于未考虑城市发展自下而上的自组织规律,容易导致布局结果与城市实际发展的偏离。(3)1996年之前,杭州市城市发展相对缓慢,市场经济还不很发达,城市开发仍以单一主体、确定的城市开发模式为主,城市增长的驱动因素较为简单,道路和已有城市建设用地是城市扩展的最主要因素,城市扩展以边缘增长为主,沿道路和已有建成区周边向外扩散。1996年之后,杭州城市化的速度明显加快,计划经济体制下的单一主体、确定的城市开发模式逐渐被以多元开发主体和普遍的偶发性开发为代表的新城市发展模式所取代,城市开发变得越来越复杂,影响因素越来越多,迫切需要在土地利用总体规划中心城区建设用地布局中考虑城市发展的复杂性。(4)基于元胞自动机模型的建设用地布局方法在预测城市未来近郊区可能的发展区域时具有优势,通过布局引导可以防止该区域内用地随机散乱地开发。与基于适宜性评价的建设用地布局方法相比,虽然建设用地布局要相对分散,但是与城市实际发展情况具有较高的吻合度,更有现实指导意义。同时,如此布局往往连接了城市近郊区相邻破碎的斑块,能有效提高城市建设用地的紧凑程度。到2010年其建设用地斑块数量降低为998,集聚度指数增加到92.57,到2020年其建设用地斑块数量降低为875,集聚度指数增加到93.80,城市格局趋于紧凑。通过与城市规划范围的对比,该布局方法在对于中心城区用地的控制上与城市规划相衔接,衔接度达到了82.35%。另外,在中心城区建设用地布局过程中采用凸壳理论来控制城市发展的形态,引导凸壳内的用地优先开发,能有效促进城市往紧凑化方向发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid growth of economy, industrialization and urbanization in China have been expanding continuously. One notable feature of modern society is the increasing demand for land, and the amount of construction land developed during the planning period always exceed the limited amount in planning. Land resources are scarce and non-renewable. Besides, there are more people and less land in China leading to the rising lack of construction land, which has become the main limitation for economic development. On the other hand, in the context of enhancing protection of farmland and ensuring national food security, governments need to implement various control targets and distribution requirements in land use planning to achieve the consistence of diagram and number. Therefore, how to put limited construction land resources into space, fulfill its rational distribution, achieve its maximum effectiveness, and ensure the development of social economy has become the most important task of land use planning. In addition, the land for construction in central urban area is the core as well as the carrier of regional economic development. Spatial distribution optimization is directly related to the regional socio-economic sustainable development and ecological protection of the environment, which is of great significance to guide and control future land use.Currently, city and the process of forming it are widely considered to be a complex system with characteristics of open, dynamic, self-organized and non-equilibrium. At the same time, city’s development process is easily disturbed by humans so that we need to coordinate each subsystem and the contradiction between multi-target actors through planning to remedy city’s defect of spontaneity, blindness, and hysteresis. Therefore, based on the perspective of city complex system, this paper does research on optimization of construction land distribution in central urban, trying to achieve balance develop between urban land use planning and city’s self-organizing rules. The following conclusions have been made,(1) Through computer simulation, we find that when the planning coordinates with the city’s self-organizing rules, economic and social benefits will both improve. Adventurous decision-making body prefers economic efficiency, while, prudent decision-making body prefers social and ecological benefits. Consequently,for adventurous decision-making body, only when planning is in consistence with city’s self-organizing law will the land development better meet the planning avoiding pervasive or saltant development. For prudent decision-making body, only when the planning coordinates with city’s self-organization law can improve the economic value of urban development. In addition, when the planning accords with city’s self-organization law, enhancing planning enforcement does good to social and ecological benefits in city development.(2) Based on the suitability evaluation of the central urban, this distribution is useful to determine preponderant location for future urban development, control city’s spread development along main roads, and guide city to the filling development. The mentioned method also has its weakness. It is difficult to reflect the space pattern which is caused by the dynamic impact of neighborhood and the interaction between partial rules. It is not efficient to distinguish heterogeneity in a small range leading to centralized distribution. However, the reality is that anyone has the motive to pursue economic interests in regional development. Any land which has the better location around the building city is possible to be developed so that central development is always accompanied by the distributed development. Therefore, top-down construction land distribution does not take into account city’s bottom-up self-organization law, which easily leads to the deviation between distribution results and the actual city development.(3) Before 1996, the speed of urban development is relatively slow in Hangzhou and certain city development pattern with single subject is the main mode. The driving factor for urban development is relatively simple and roads as well as existing city are the main factors for urban expansion. Edge-growth is the main mode, which city spreads along roads and the existing built-up areas. After 1996, with the growing rate of urbanization in Hangzhou, certain city development mode with single body is gradually replaced by the accident development with multi-body which is the representative of "new city development mode". Urban development is becoming more complex and has more influencing factors so that it is urgent to consider the complexity of urban development in the land planning for central urban construction.(4)The method of cellular automata model has superiority in forecasting likely development areas in the suburb and preventing random land development. Compared with the method of land suitability assessment, construction land distribution is more dispersed, but accords with reality, and has guiding significance. It often connects the adjacent broken patches in suburban areas, which is helpful to raise the city’s compactness. According to statistic, the number of construction land patches reduced to 998 and aggregation index increased to 92.57 in 2010. Moreover, the number of patches will decrease to 875 and aggregation index will increase to 93.80 in 2020 and it is more consistent with city actual development. By comparing with the range of urban planning, this distribution result lines up with the city planning in the control of the land use for central urban area and the goodness of fit is 82.35%. Using the theory of convex hull for center city’s land layout is beneficial to control the shape of urban development as well as control the land development priority in the convex shell, which will effectively promote the city development to the compact direction.更多还原