【作者】 叶翔；

【导师】 杜金富；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 金融学， 2011， 博士

【副题名】基于货币定义扩展的视角

【摘要】 货币供应是货币理论的核心命题,也是我国货币政策的重要中介目标。长期以来,受西方主流经济学将货币供应视为外生变量的影响,货币理论更侧重于货币需求及货币(政策)效用研究,而对货币供应形成机制和决定因素的研究则相对薄弱。实践中,我国利率尚未完全市场化,价格型的货币政策工具仍较为缺乏,货币供应的调控在我国宏观经济政策中占据非常重要的地位。因此,对货币是什么?哪些金融资产应纳入货币定义?这些货币的供应如何形成,受哪些因素影响等问题的研究具有重要的理论与实践价值。同时,改革开放尤其是近十年来,我国金融市场、金融机构、金融创新、金融监管、金融环境等方面的发展变化,使以上问题可能有新的解答。因此,本文的选题具有鲜明的时代背景和现实意义。以此为导向,本文借鉴前人研究的丰硕成果,结合当前经济金融发展实际,从更广的范围、更深的层次和更量化的角度对我国货币供应的形成机制进行了系统研究。并在以下三个方面具有一定的创新性。一是研究范围的扩展：(1)对我国货币定义进行了扩展研究,将当前已具有较强货币性、实践中已履行货币职能的金融资产纳入货币定义,以此为出发点来探讨我国货币供应的形成机制；(2)对我国货币供应的形成机制和决定模型进行了扩展研究,将监管部门的政策要求、金融机构对自身资产负债结构的选择、社会公众的行为习惯,以及国际收支状况、财政收支状况等影响因素纳入研究体系,并综合构建了包括资本充足率、不良贷款率、存贷比、核心负债依存度、准备金付息率、存贷利差、再贷款(再贴现)利率等六大类20多项指标的货币供应决定模型。这些扩展使对我国货币供应形成机制的研究更为全面、准确,贴近当前实际。二是研究层次的深化：以主要经济金融部门的资产负债表为纽带,不仅考察了货币政策调控等宏观层面所带来的货币供应变化,还研究了微观主体行为选择通过资产负债表的联结所传递的货币供应变化,从而使本文构建的货币供应决定模型具有较为深厚的微观基础和较强的说服力。三是研究角度的定量化：不仅从理论与定性分析的角度去研究问题,还注重加强对问题的定量分析,综合运用多种统计分析方法,对本文所构建货币供应决定模型进行了定量测算,量化了各类因素对我国货币供应的影响,使全文的研究具有更多的定量证明和数据支撑。本文运用理论研究与实证分析相结合、局部分析与总体分析相结合、比较分析与案例分析相结合的研究方法,沿着货币概念界定与我国货币定义扩展——我国货币供应形成机制的扩展研究与模型构建——我国货币供应决定模型的实证计量与实践阐释这一主线依次展开：首先,分别从货币本质与货币数量的规定性这两个方面入手,在对既有研究与实践计量进行比较分析、梳理总结的基础上,提出了本文的货币概念界定,并对其与金融资产、货币供应、社会融资总量等相近概念进行了进一步的辨析。在此基础上,结合当前实际,对我国货币定义进行了扩展研究：将外汇存款、地方财政存款、委托存款、银行承兑汇票等10项已具有相当货币性、实际已履行货币职能的金融资产纳入我国货币定义,并对活期储蓄存款所属的货币层次进行调整、将境外流通的人民币现钞从流通中的现金中扣除,形成了由扩展后的M0*、M1*、M2*、M3*所构成的我国货币定义框架。之后,根据时差相关系数对扩展前后的货币与经济产出、物价的关系进行了计量检验,比较论证了货币定义扩展的合理性和有效性。其次,在对既有货币供应理论进行回顾、梳理和总结,对货币供应形成的本原进行深入剖析和高度概括的基础上,基于扩展后的货币定义视角,研究阐述了我国货币供应形成的决定机制和影响因素,并构建了我国货币供应决定模型：通过对货币供应源泉——基础货币以及中央银行业务活动的梳理分析,依托相关部门资产负债表的联结,将我国货币供应的形成分为银行(国内)信贷、国际收支、财政收支这三条主要渠道；再分别从这三大渠道的内部着手,进一步研究探讨了货币供应在不同渠道内的形成机制和影响效应；同时,为了研究的全面性和前瞻性,对主要渠道以外的、目前较不显著的其他货币供应渠道,如对其他金融性公司债权渠道、商业银行表外业务渠道等也进行了探讨。在以上理论研究的基础上,综合构建了我国货币供应的决定模型。最后,根据所构建的货币供应决定模型,选取我国2000-2009年的相关数据,综合运用主成分分析、因子分析、协整分析、误差修正模型、Granger因果关系检验等统计分析方法对模型进行实证计量,并结合经验事实加以解释论证。综合以上研究,本文提出了以下三个方面的基本观点及相应的对策建议：(1)随着经济、金融的发展和货币形态的演进,货币的定义实际上已经扩大。货币的本质是时代发展所赋予的,被人们广为接受的,能便利人们经济生产生活的一种规定性；货币的数量已不只是现金和传统意义上的活期、定期、储蓄存款,还包括那些流动性很强,被广泛用于消费支付、资金融通的金融资产。因此,货币的定义和货币供应量的计量也应与时俱进地进行动态调整,以适应本国经济金融的发展变化并保持适当前瞻性,使其能够更全面地反映所有金融资产发挥货币作用的能力,能够更准确地反映货币对产出、物价等宏观经济变量带来的影响,为货币政策等宏观经济政策提供良好的决策支持。(2)尽管基础货币是中央银行的负债项目,理论上央行能够自主地对其进行控制。但从我国当前的实际情况看,不由中央银行控制的源于国际收支失衡的外汇占款已经成为影响我国基础货币总体变化的最主要因素,在此背景下,我国中央银行对基础货币的调控呈现较强的被动性。如果国际收支失衡的局面持续发展,中央银行对基础货币进行有效控制的潜力和空间将会越来越小。为此,应千方百计地加强对国际收支平衡的调节,减少基础货币吞吐对净国外资产变化的依赖,增强货币政策对基础货币的控制力。(3)当前经济金融环境下,决定货币乘数大小和变化的因素除了现金漏损率、法定存款准备金率、超额存款准备金率、定期存款与活期存款比率之外,还包括宏观货币政策、微观监管政策、金融主体对自身资产负债结构的选择、社会公众行为偏好的诸多因素。宏观货币政策已不是影响货币乘数的主要因素,其他因素尤其是微观监管政策对货币乘数的影响正日益显著。对此,应在进一步加强宏观货币政策与微观监管政策协调配合的基础上,建立健全宏观审慎管理框架,把货币政策调控手段如利率、汇率、存款准备金率等与微观监管的要求如存贷比、资本充足率、拨备率、流动性比例等有机地结合起来,更为系统、高效地实施货币调控,保证我国经济金融稳定较快发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Money supply is the central thesis of economics, and it is also a main objective of monetary policy of China. A long time, the Western mainstream economics think that a Central-Bank can independently control the money supply as an exogenous variable, resulting in the monetary theory more focused on the study of money demand and money policy. So the research about the internal mechanism and the determinant factors of the formation of the money supply is relatively weak. In practice, due to the interest rate is not yet free, price-type monetary policy tools are still relatively poor, so the money supply has always been our most important intermediate target of monetary policy. Money supply, including what areas and how the money supply, and the factors that influence and decision, is an important topic with the theoretical and practical value. At the same time, in the last decade, China’s development and change in the field of financial markets, financial institutions, financial innovation and financial regulation and so on, the above topics may have new answers. Therefore, the subject of this article also has a distinct background and practical significance of the times.Guided by this, this article references the predecessor fruitful results of the study, with the current actual of the economic and financial development, from the wider range, the deeper level and the more quantization angle, it makes a systematic study on the formation mechanism of China’s money supply. And it has a certain degree of innovation in the following three ways:(i) It has a broader study on formation mechanism of the money supply. It incorporate some financial assets that already has a strong currency or have been performing currency functions into the scope of the study of the money supply; And it study the effects of factors other than the Central Bank’s monetary policy, but also the other factors such as the surveillant requirements of regulatory authorities, the own selection of structure of assets and liabilities of the financial institutions, international payments position, financial income and expenditure situation and so on. It incorporate more factors into the perspective of investigation on the mechanism of formation of the money supply. The breadth of expansion, leads to a study on the mechanism of money supply can be more comprehensive and accurate. (ii) It studys the formation mechanism of the money supply from a deeper level. Reflected in the balance sheet as a link in the main economic and financial sector, it studys not only the macro-level mechanisms of money supply, such as monetary policy regulating, also looked at money supply mechanism of micro-economic level. So, to a certain extent, it compensate for the inadequacies of the lack of micro-foundation of money supply research. This also allowed the decision-model of money supply have more convincing and more practical basis, (ⅲ) It has a quantitative point of research on the formation mechanism of the money supply. It not only focuses on academic research and qualitative analysis about the monetary supply theory, also use a variety of methods to increase empirical measurement and comprehensive statistical analysis of the money supply mechanism. Depended on China’s monetary supply decision models for the quantitative measurement, and quantified the impact of various factors on the money supply, it bring the quantitative support for the full text.This article discusses the currency, monetary base and money multiplicator. First of all, on the basis of the review of the literature and theory, combining with the current practice, it supplements and amends the monetary definition framework of China, and proves the rationality and effectiveness of the supplement through the empirical measurement. The supplements and amendments expand the scope of money supply, as well as make the full text of the discussion establish on a clear definition. Secondly, it reviews and appraises the researches of domestic and foreign scholars in the field, makes an abstract generalization of the primitive of money supply. Then, starting from the source-base currency of the money supply, it studies each of the money supply channels, such as credit channel, international payments channels, and financial income and expenditure channels. It builds a decision model of money supply formation mechanism closer to current real in China. Finally, depending on the 2000-2009 year’s data, it integrate the uses of some statistical analysis methods, such as regression analysis, error correction models, Granger causality test and so on, combined with the experience to interpret facts, to measure the model empirically.With the academic and empirical analysis, this article Proposed the following points and the corresponding countermeasures:(i) Along with the economic and social development and the evolution of financial models, nature of currency and monetary measures continued to widen. The nature of money is something that conferred by the essence of the times, widely accepted, can facilitate economic life; Monetary measurement of areas have not only cash and deposit currency, but also includes some financial assets that very strong liquidity, widely used in consumer payments and financial intermediation, such as bank acceptance bills, short-term financing bonds and so on; money supply is not only the currency and deposits derived in the traditional sense, but rather include supply of foreign currency, financial and monetary supply. Therefore, the review of the currency and the money supply is expected to be a dynamic process, money measurement should be adjusted according to the new currency, to more fully reflect the ability of all financial assets play a monetary role, to more accurately reflect the monetary policy impact on the output, prices and other macroeconomic variables. (ⅱ) Notwithstanding the base currency is the Central Bank’s liabilities, but in our country, as a practical matter, imbalance in the balance of payments has become the most important factor affecting the overall changes of China’s base currency. So the Central Bank could not take the initiative to control the growth of base money, only could control the overall growth through debt structure adjustment, freeze excess liquidity, offset the excess money supply growth. Therefore, payments that cannot be controlled, subject to rendering for the control of the base currency of the Bank more passive, and the potential for effective control will become smaller and smaller. So we should strengthen the international balance of payments adjustment, reduce reliance of monetary stimulation on the basis of net foreign assets, and enhance the control of monetary policy on the basis of monetary regulation. (ⅲ) Under the current economic and financial environment, the size and change of the money multiplier is not only decided by cash leakage rate, the statutory reserve, the excess reserves, the rates of deposits and savings, but also decided by some things including micro-regulatory policy, monetary policy, and financial subject’s choice of its own assets and liabilities structure and public preference. The macro-effects of monetary policy on the money multiplier is not the main determining factors, other factors, in particular, micro-supervision of policy is increasingly significant impact on the money multiplier. So, on the basis of further strengthen coordination in micro-regulatory policy and macro-monetary policy, we should establish a sound macro-prudential regulatory frameworks. This framework includes the monetary policy instruments such as interest rates, exchange rates, and micro-prudential requirements such as capital adequacy ratio, liquidity ratio and so on. In order to the stability and rapid development of economic and financial in China, We should organically build a more systematic and effective implementation of macro-monetary regulation.更多还原