【作者】 马喆；

【导师】 李华；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁大学 ， 国民经济学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 消费率是表征最终消费支出在总需求中份额的结构性指标,消费率高低是整体经济运行状况的直观反映,对宏观经济政策的制定具有指导性作用。与消费率相对应的总需求支出结构指标是投资率,在大型内向型经济体中,消费需求和投资需求共同构成的国内需求是总需求的主要成分,国外需求份额则相对较小,因此,消费率与投资率具有此消彼长的互动关系。中国自改革开放以来,消费率呈波动下降趋势,消费需求对经济增长的拉动作用逐渐减弱,投资率则波动上升,投资需求对经济增长的拉动作用不断增强,从而导致中国经济增长的稳定性、持续性和有效性逐步下降。消费率包括居民消费率和政府消费率,在城乡二元经济结构下,需将居民消费率进一步分解为农村居民消费率和城镇居民消费率分别加以分析。中国的消费率下降主要体现为居民消费率下降,且尤以农村居民消费率下降最为显著,反映了居民消费需求(特别是农村居民消费需求)增长速度相对缓慢。导致中国消费率下降的原因包括内在原因和外在原因,内在原因是居民收入增长缓慢、城乡收入差距扩大、消费倾向下降、不确定性预期增强及政府对民生消费支出不足等;外在原因是工业化进程加快、利率水平偏低、资本利用效率下降等推动的投资需求迅速扩张对消费率和消费需求的挤出效应。以宏观经济运行中经济增长、充分就业、经济稳定等基本目标为理论前提推演的适度消费率测算模型为中国适度消费率测算提供了理论依据,根据中国当前经济发展阶段给定的各个外生变量,测算2010年中国的适度消费率区间应为[54.21%,65.15%]。2010年中国实际消费率仅为47.40%,显著低于适度消费率区间下限。针对中国实际消费率偏低问题,主要解决途径为:改善收入分配格局和扩大就业,以提高居民收入水平;缩小城乡收入差距,以提高居民消费倾向;完善社会保障制度,以降低居民的不确定性预期;调整政府消费结构,发挥政府消费对居民消费需求增长的拉动作用;改革利率体制,抑制私人投资过度增长;协调政府投资结构,提高政府投资效率。更多还原

【Abstract】 Consumption rate represents the proportion of final consumption expenditure in the aggregate demand, whose level reflects the overall situation of economy, and guides the macroeconomic policy. The indicator corresponding with consumption rate that indicates aggregate demand expenditure structure is capital formation rate, which has alternative relationship with consumption rate in large domestic-oriented economy. The consumption rate of China show downward trend since reform and opening up, while the capital formation rate rose continually. The stimulation of consumption demand has been weakened progressively, and the stimulation of investment demand has strengthened. The stability, sustainability and effectiveness of Chinese economic growth are declining.Consumption rate consists of consumption rate of government (CRG) and consumption rate of households (CRH) , which is always devided into consumption rate of rural households (CRR) and consumption rate of urban households (CRU) in urban-rural dual economic structure. The decreasing of CRH, especially CRR, is mainly performance of consumption rate of China, which reflects the growth rate of consumption demand of households is slow. The reason that leading the decreasing of consumption rate of China consists of internal causes and external causes. The internal causes are slow growth of households’income, expending of the income gap between urban households and rural households, declining of households’propensity to consume, increasing of uncertain expectation, and the lack of consumption of government in the field of livelihood, etc. The external cause is the crowding-out effect on the consumption rate and consumption demand that caused by acceleration of industrialization, lower interest rate, and decreasing of investment efficiency, etc.The model of suitable consumption rate that targets to macro objects such as economic growth, full employment, and economic stability, provides theoretical basis to the research of suitable consumption rate of China. According to exogenous variables in current stage of economy development of China, we can estimate the rage of suitable consumption rate of 2010 is [54.21%,65.15%]. The actual consumption rate of 2010 is significantly lower than the minimum of suitable level.There are six ways to solve the problem of lower consumption rate of China. First, increase the income of households by promoting the structure of national income distribution. Second, improve households’propensity to consume by reduce the income gap between urban households and rural households. Third, let uncertain expectation of households down by strengthen the social security system. Fourth, adjust the structure of government expenditure, in order to promote consumption demand of households. Fifth, restrain the fast growth of private investment by reforming the interest rates mechanism. Sixth, adjust the structure of governmet investment, and increase government investment efficiency.更多还原