【作者】 林伟明；

【导师】 万解秋；

【作者基本信息】 苏州大学 ， 金融学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 本文全面地探讨了回归后联系汇率制度对香港的经济发展与国际金融中心地位的再造问题,并尝试将信心的角度纳入本文中,综合诠释香港经济不同阶段的发展轨迹及作为国际金融中心的可持续性发展。本文通过“文献研究法”与“历史研究法”来回顾十四年以来香港经济的发展与港人对经济的信心,从而探讨回归后香港经济的历史变迁与历史地位。一方面,本文探讨香港经济发展与“外部”的信心问题,从机遇论、中心论到边缘论,再到当下的发展,正好反映出香港在回归后因经济起伏而带来的对中国內地(外部)的信心体现:有信心为中国內地带来繁荣失去信心担心中国內地的发展中被边缘化有信心能够与中国內地互相配合共同发展。另一方面,本文探讨香港经济发展与内部的制度问题,也就是讨论联系汇率制度与香港地位的发展。如果说,回归后一大段日子的经济发展过程反映了香港对中国内地经济而引起的信心问题,而“金融海啸”后的联系汇率制度讨论则是反映香港对美国、中国经济发展信心逆转时所带出的问题,也就是香港应如何发展这个国际金融中心地位的问题。如上所述,本文首先阐述联系汇率制度在1983年产生的历程,及其后的运作与发展,再解释联系汇率制度如何稳定香港这种属外向型经济体系的发展。也就是说,香港自1997年回归中国后,就算经历过往各种金融及政治冲击,能有效抵御及免受因外围负面因素而造成大幅度汇率波动,制度依然保障香港长期经济安稳发展,对香港这个国际金融中心的稳定及可持续发展作出积极贡献。接着,本文讨论香港在1997年回归前后的一段期间,中国内地不同地方:如中西部、江西、西部、湖北、湖南、云南、广西及福建等地对香港有着不同的期许。重点是香港在回归前已是一个基础建设良好、经济发达、贸易往来频繁及服务业达世界一流标准的腹地,内地期望通过这多项的优点带动当地的经贸发展,如提升生产效能及效率、完善营运管理、改善人才素质、强化服务业标准及发展区域金融中心等。不过,接踵而来的厄运,如1997年10月的“金融风暴”、2001年的“911”事件及2003年的“非典型肺炎”事件令香港的经济持续下跌,并失去发展的动力。相反,中国内地的经济持续保持平稳增长。香港在2003年经济及贸易环境最恶劣的一刻时,中国中央人民政府决定施以援手,以CEPA,即《内地与香港关于建立更紧密经贸关系的安排》及“个人游”等方案协助及刺激香港经济复苏,令香港重拾经济上升的动力。但同时带来香港一些问题。第一、香港人在过去经济建设成就上的骄傲顿时消失,令信心出现危机;及第二、担心中国内地的高速发展令香港被边缘化。在经贸发展的同时,中国及香港政府均要面对及处理此等问题,以免破坏社会和谐及稳定,这是中央人民政府不愿意看见的。因此,中国在协助香港经济发展时,多给予香港人有着发挥过去不屈不挠的精神,积极参与香港本地以至中国内地的经济发展,重拾信心能与中国内地互相配合共同发展。好景不常,当香港经济稍有起色的时候,2008年又因美国房地产的次按问题而导致的“金融海啸”,对香港的经济带来冲击。美国为要挽救疲弱的经济,史无前例地大量“印银纸”,令美元币值持续下跌,触发大量热钱流入香港并推高资产价格,在逐利的诱因下,加速了资产泡沫的风险,再加上人民币的持续升值,不少论者认为这样会导致通货膨胀升温,影响了普罗大众的生活及增加了营商的成本。因此,不少论者关注港元与美元挂钩的联系汇率制度应否改变或废除,又有不少论者提议香港应实施港元与人民币挂钩的联系汇率制度。不过,通过笔者的验证与分析及综合不同经济学家的意见后,联系汇率制度和通货膨胀并无直接的关系。反之,联系汇率制度有利于港元币值稳定,亦即是确保营商环境的稳定。因此,港元与人民币挂钩的联系汇率制度暂不可行,原因是人民币现时仍未能自由兑换。更何况美国自“金融海啸”后仍是世界第一的经济大国,港元与美元挂钩的联系汇率制度实无必要改变。最重要的是要稳定香港作为国际金融中心的地位,其经济及贸易层面必要确保稳定,就必先要稳守现存行之有效的联系汇率制度。“金融海啸”后,世界的新经济秩序正在重组,在众多掘起的经济实力国家之中,中国的表现最佳最强。因此,中国可利用这次历史性的机遇,促进国内金融市场改革,加快人民币国际化的步伐。既然香港的联系汇率制度能有效稳定香港作为国际金融中心在世界的领导地位,香港人就应该发挥一如既往在金融业的专业所长,配合中国内地的经济发展并作出积极的贡献。也就是说,香港应办好人民币离岸中心的重要角色,作为人民币“走出去”的桥梁。与此同时,香港自身亦必须创造条件,自行强化并巩固香港作为国际金融中心的金融中介职能,能有效地维持在国际间的领导地位。更多还原

【Abstract】 This thesis presents an in-depth discussion on the effects of the linked exchange rate system upon the Hong Kong economic development and its status reconstruction issue of international financial center. The confidence issue will also be discussed in the thesis, with comprehensive interpretation of the different stages of economic development of Hong Kong and its sustainable development as an international financial center. The review, conducted through literature review and historical research methods, includes the development of the Hong Kong economy and the confidence that the people of Hong Kong have placed in it over the last 14 years. It is through this review that the historical changes and status of the Hong Kong economy after its handover will be discussed.The confidence in the“outer ring”and the development of the Hong Kong economy will be discussed in this thesis. The fluctuation of the Hong Kong economy shows a change in the level of confidence that the people of Hong Kong have placed in China’s mainland after its handover, which rises and falls repeatedly. The confidence level changes from the discussion on favourable circumstances to the agent-centric perspective, then the concern of marginalization and the present development.Confidence to bring prosperity to China Confidence lost that worry to be marginalized in China’s development Confidence to cooperate with China’s mainland through mutual support in the development.In addition, this paper also includes discussion about the internal problems of Hong Kong and the development of Hong Kong’s economy, which is on the discussion of the linked exchange rate system and the development of Hong Kong. If the economic development of Hong Kong after the handover reflects the confidence level Hong Kong has placed on China’s mainland, then the discussion of the linked exchange rate system after the“financial tsunami”reflects the shift in confidence level between the United States and China. As described above, this paper begins by describing the linked exchange rate system generated in the course of 1983 and its subsequent operations and developments. It also includes explanations of the linked exchange rate system how it stabilizes the development of Hong Kong’s export-oriented economic system. In other words, after the return of sovereignty to China in 1997, having experienced a variety of financial and political impacts in the past, Hong Kong can effectively resist against negative external factors caused by large exchange rate fluctuations. The system secures the stability of the long-term development of Hong Kong’s economy. Its contribution also includes stabilizing the role of Hong Kong as an International financial center and its sustainable development.Then, the paper discusses different expectations of regions/cities in China’s mainland towards the return of sovereignty of Hong Kong to China before and after 1997. These regions/cities include the Midwest, Jiangxi, western part of China, Hubei, Hunan, Yunnan, Guangxi, and Fujian. Before the return of Hong Kong, the city was an attracting region with good infrastructure, structured economic development, frequent trade and world-class standard services. The regions/cities hope that through this a number of advantages to promote local economic and trade developments, such as raising the effectiveness and efficiency of production, improving operational management, to escalate the quality of human talents, strengthening service standards and developing regional financial center.However, Hong Kong suffered misfortune from“financial turmoil”in October 1997, the“911”incident in 2001 and the“SARS”in 2003, in which Hong Kong’s economy continued to decline, and the momentum of development was lost. In contrast, China’s mainland’s economy continued to grow steadily synchronously. Hong Kong economic and trade environment was in the worst moment in 2003. Thus, the Chinese Central People’s Government decided to offer a helping hand to Hong Kong, such as CEPA, the“Mainland and Hong Kong Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement”,“individual visit”program and other programs to assist and stimulate Hong Kong’s economic recovery, enabling Hong Kong to regain momentum of economic rise. At the same time, some problems in Hong Kong were led. First, the pride in the past that people confided with their economic achievements was gone, which led to the confidence crisis; and second, the rapid development of China’s mainland was concerned by Hong Kong that Hong Kong might be marginalized. In economic development, China and Hong Kong governments should necessarily face and deal with these issues at the same time, so as not to damage social harmony and stability, which is the Central People’s Government is not willing to see. It is therefore that the role of China in promoting Hong Kong’s economic development should allow people in Hong Kong to realize the indomitable spirit as acquired in the past, to encourage Hong Kong playing an active part in the economic development of both Hong Kong and China, and to regain confidence which enables the co-ordination of Hong Kong and China’s mainland in order to faciliate common development.Good times never last, when Hong Kong economy was recovering, the U.S. real estate sub-prime mortgage problems occurred that raised the 2008“financial tsunami”and caused negative economic impacts to Hong Kong. In order to save the ailing U.S. economy, an unprecedented measure implemented by the U.S. government to enormously“print bank notes”, so the value of U.S. dollar continued to fall, triggering a lot of hot money flowing into Hong Kong and push up asset prices, coupled with the Yuan continues to appreciate which further accelerate the risk of asset bubbles under the profit-driven incentives. Many commentators believe that this will cause inflation to heat up, affecting the lives of the general public and increase the cost of doing business in Hong Kong. Many commentators, therefore, expressed concern that the Hong Kong dollar pegged to the U.S. dollar linked exchange rate system should be changed or abolished. Some have suggested the implementation of the Hong Kong dollar and the RMB should be linked to the linked exchange rate system. However, the author, after conducting the verification and analysis, together with synthesis of different views of economists, all believe that there was no direct relationship between inflation and the linked exchange rate system. On the contrary, the linked exchange rate system stabilizes the value of Hong Kong dollar, which is to ensure a stable business environment. The feasibility of linking the Hong Kong dollar and the RMB under the exchange rate system is temporarily not feasible because the RMB is not yet freely convertible. Moreover, the United States was still the first world economic power since the“financial tsunami”, the Hong Kong dollar pegged to the U.S. dollar linked exchange rate system is no need to change. The most important thing is to stabilize the Hong Kong’s status as an international financial center and hold onto the existing well-established link, if its economic and trade aspects are of the need to ensure stability.After the“financial tsunami”triggered, the world’s new economic order is being restructured in many countries, and China is the best and strongest economic strength with high performance among rising countries. China, therefore, can use this historic opportunity to promote domestic financial market reform and accelerate the pace of internationalization of the RMB. Since Hong Kong’s linked exchange rate system can effectively stabilize Hong Kong’s leading status of its international financial center in the world, people in Hong Kong should continue to take a proactive role to contribute their expertises acquired from the financial sector when the economic development of China’s mainland is booming. In other words, Hong Kong should well play a good role as Renminbi offshore center, which serves as a bridge for the“going out”of the Yuan. At the same time, Hong Kong herself must also create conditions to strengthen and consolidate itself as an international financial center, which allow the financial intermediary functions be effectively performed so as to maintain its international leadership status.更多还原