【作者】 庄道元；

【导师】 陈超；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2011， 博士

【副题名】以安徽小麦为例

【摘要】 粮食安全是经济发展、社会稳定的基础,关系国家全局。我国政府一直高度重视粮食安全问题,并采取了多种措施促进粮食生产。2010年,全国粮食总产量近1.1万亿斤,取得了七年连续增长的巨大成就。然而,由于受到人口增加、耕地面积下降及水资源短缺等因素的制约,长期来看,我国粮食安全形势依然较为严峻,依靠科技进步提高粮食单产是解决我国粮食安全问题的唯一途径。一粒种子可以改变世界。作物品种是最基本的农业生产资料,对粮食生产至关重要,优质良种的研制与推广对于保障国家粮食安全具有十分重要的意义。自《中华人民共和国植物新品种保护条例》与《种子法》颁布实施以来,科研单位与种子企业育种积极性大大增加,1999-2010年,我国植物新品种权申请量达到了6632项,获批2984项,新品种数量大幅增加。同时,由于我国种子企业数量多、规模小的特点也造成了种子市场“多、乱、杂”的局面,广大农户在众多品种面前常常感到无所适从。为了引导广大农户选择优良品种,我国政府于2004年制定了《农业主导品种和主推技术推介发布办法》,要求各地通过广播、电视、报纸等新闻媒体,利用挂图、光盘、现场观摩等方式对主导品种及主推技术进行大力推广,各地方政府也分别制定了主导品种推介的相关政策。我国作物主导品种推广现状如何?影响农户选择主导品种的因素又是哪些?主导品种有无明显增产效果?农户对主导品种推介制度满意度如何?对这些问题的准确回答不仅是对目前主导品种推广绩效的客观评价,而且也是推进基层农业技术推广体系改革的需要。小麦是我国最为重要的粮食作物之一,播种面积及产量都达到全国粮食总量的五分一以上,其在国家粮食安全中的地位十分重要,因此,以小麦为例进行粮食作物主导品种推广绩效的研究具有较强的代表性。本文在对创新扩散理论、农户行为理论及农业技术推广绩效理论进行梳理之后,构建了从农户视角进行粮食作物主导品种推广绩效分析的研究框架。通过对淮北地区的墉桥、萧县、濉溪、烈山四个县(区)15个乡镇、66个村的581户农民小麦品种选择及生产情况进行实地调研,运用经济计量模型对农户选择小麦主导品种的因素、主导品种增产效果及农户满意度水平进行了实证分析,最后提出了相关的对策建议。全文共分9章,主要研究内容及结论具体如下：研究内容一：农户小麦品种技术需求及使用情况统计分析通过对样本农户小麦品种技术需求、获取渠道、更新状况进行统计分析,结果表明：农户对小麦种植技术需求较为强烈,多数农户表示需要小麦技术指导,纯农户及大户表现较为迫切；农户对直接影响产量的新品种、新化肥、新农药及病虫害防治技术热情较高,而对有利于耕地可持续发展的秸杆还田等技术则兴趣不大；农户最为关注的品种特性是高产、抗倒伏、品种质量及价格；农户小麦品种信息来源呈多元化,亲戚朋友、种子销售部门及示范户是普通农户获取信息最多的渠道；农技员在小麦品种信息传播中作用不够突出；农户在小麦品种使用中普通存在求新的心理；购买是农户获得小麦种子的主要方式,部分农户通过使用多个品种来降低小麦生产中存在的风险。研究内容二：农户小麦主导品种选择状况及影响因素分析样本数据表明：小麦主导品种推广效果不够理想,仅有60%左右的农户采用政府推介的小麦主导品种；本文利用Logit模型对影响农户选择主导品种的因素进行实证分析,结果发现户主性别、文化程度、示范户、农户经营规模、是否与农技员有过联系、认知水平等因素对小麦主导品种的采用具有显著正向关系,良种补贴、统一购种是引导农户选择主导品种的有效手段。研究内容三：农户对主导品种推介的满意度评价本文根据农户对小麦主导品种推广的满意度调查数据,利用因子分析法对各指标的权重进行赋值,计算出了农户整体满意度指数,并利用四分图模型从满意度水平及重要性两个层面确定了各指标的现状与地位。研究结果表明：农户对主导品种推介工作整体评价不高,综合得分仅为55.38分,其中,对宣传效果、品种产量、良种补贴金额及补贴方式满意度评价相对较高,而对农技员服务水平、联系次数、推广态度及品种抗性的评价相对较低；增强品种抗性、提高农技员业务水平、端正工作态度是当前应当抓紧解决的问题,农户对良种补贴政策评价较高,对此还要进行不断的完善。研究内容四：小麦主导品种增产效果的实证分析本文从要素投入及技术采用两个方面,利用扩展的C-D生产函数对影响小麦产量的因素进行了实证分析,重点对小麦主导品种增产效果进行验证,结果表明,政府推介的主导品种具有显著的增产作用;投入要素中化肥、农药、资金对小麦单产有积极影响,小麦生产存在一定规模效应；技术采用要素中病虫害防治及拔节肥的追施对小麦单产有显著的正向影响,而测土配方技术增产效果不够理想。根据以上研究,本文提出了以下对策建议：激励育种创新,切实提高品种质量；严格进行主导品种的筛选；完善供种企业的招标与责任追究制度；进一步完善良种补贴政策,增加技术采用补贴种类；加快推进农业技术推广体系改革,完善农业技术推广人员的激励机制；加强农户的培训工作,努力提高其生产技术素质；加快农村土地流转,发展适度规模经营。更多还原

【Abstract】 Food safety is the foundation of economic development and social stability. It has important influence on the development of the whole country. Our government has been attaching great importance to food safety issues and made a strategic policy that we should depend on domestic food production to solve the problem. Great achievements have been obtained for many prompting measures. The total grain production reached nearly 5500 billion kilograms in 2010, it is the first seven consecutive growth in the past half century. However, in the long run, China’food safety issues are serious because of many constraints, such as population growth, land loss and water shortage. Relying on agricultural science and technology innovation is the only practical way to ensure our national food safety.One seed can change the world. Crop seed is the basic factor in agricultural production and it is essential for grain yield. The research and extension of good varieties is the key factor for national food safety protection. Enthusiasm of R&D institutes and seed companies were stimulated to a great extent since the Regulations on the Protection of New Varieties of Plants and the Law of the Seed were carried out. The number of new plant varieties increased a lot from 1999 to 2010,6632 varieties had been applied and 2984 were approved. But most seed companies in our country are small and weak, so that new varieties market is chaotic now. Farmers have difficulty to select suitable varieties. In order to guide the farmers to select variety, our state enacted Ordinance of the Extension of Leading Varieties and Technology in 2004. Localities were asked to introduce leading variety and technology to farmer through radio, television, newspapers, wall charts, CD-ROMs and on-site observation, etc. What is the status of extension of leading varieties? What are those factors influencing for farmers’variety-choosing behavior? Have the leading varieties significant effect on the grain yield? Are farmers satisfied with the extension system? The answers of these questions are not only the evaluation of extension performance, but also the needs of further promoting reform of agricultural extension system.Wheat is one of the most important grain crops, its area and output have reached one-fifth of national total amount. Therefore, this paper evaluates the leading varieties extension performance depending on the extension of wheat. This paper designs the study outline after some theories have been put forward, such as innovation diffusion theory, household behavior theory and performance evaluation theory. Using economic model and investigation data of 581 households in Anhui province, the study analyzes the influencing factors of farmers’variety-choosing behavior, effect of increasing yield, farmers’satisfaction level. At last, some countermeasures have been put forward to improve performance of agricultural technology extension. The full text consists 9 chapters and the main studying contents and conclusions will be illustrated as follows:Part one:The statistical analysis of farmers’demand of wheat varietyThe analysis of sample indicates that most of farmers have strong requirement for wheat production technology. Many farmers want to receive technology guidance, especially pure farmers and large-scale farmers. Farmers have much more enthusiasm on the technologys that affect output indirectly, such as new variety, new fertilizer and new pesticide. But they have not much interest in those technologys that benefit development of sustainable agriculture, such as wheat straw using. Some variety characteristics have been paid more attention by Farmer, such as higher-yield, disease-resistant, quality, price, prevention and cure of insect pest or grass harm. Most farmers receive wheat variety information from relatives, friends and retailers. They prefer to new wheat variety and the main way for farmers to get seed is purchase. The role of agro-technician in information dissemination is not remarkable. A lot of people reduce the wheat production risk by using more than one variety.Part two:influence factors analysis for farmers’choosing behavior of wheat leading varietyThe analysis of sample indicates that the result of variety extension by government is not very good. Only about 60%of farmers use those varieties introduced by government. Using logistic model, results of empirical analysis showed that the some factors, such as household leader’gender, education, cognitive level, attitude and contact times with agro-technician, have positive inflouence on farmers’choice of wheat variety. Good seed subsidy and collective purchase are two effective way to guide farmers to choose leading variety of wheat. Part three:farmers’satisfaction evaluation on the extension of leading wheat varietyBased on the farmers’survey data, this paper calculates the farmers’satisfaction of the variety extension system. Using factor analysis method, the paper determines the role and status of every factor according to importance and satisfaction. Study showes that the evaluation of farmers’satisfaction is not high. Comprehensive score is only 55.38. The farmers’evaluation of publicity, yield, subsidy amount and way are high. Evaluation of agro-technician’capacity and attitude is low. The research also indicates that we must improve the quality of wheat variety, raise agro-technician’knowledge level and change their working attitude.Part four: empirical analysis on influence factors for farmers’choice behavior of the wheat yield per muUsing C-D production function, this paper analyses the influence factors of wheat yield from input factors and technologys. The result shows that leading varieties of wheat can improve yield significantly. Input factors including fertilizers, pesticides and found have a positive impact on wheat yield per mu. What’s more, there is scale effect in wheat production. Fertilization and pest control are two technologies affecting wheat yield per mu.Based on above research, this paper comes up with the follow countermeasures:At first, we must accelerate the reform of agricultural extension system, perfect the incentive mechanism of agricultural technicians; Second, it is necessary to strengthen the farmers’training, to improve their production technology, to develop farm cooperative organizations; Third, the policy of good seed subsidy should be further perfected; At last, government should encourage variety technological innovation; improve quality of seeds, speed up rural land circulation to develop appropriate scale production.更多还原