【作者】 李宁；

【导师】 吴昊；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 区域经济学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 处理好民族关系是任何一个多民族国家实现长治久安的重要途径。新中国成立以来,中国共产党和各级政府一直重视民族问题。创造性地建立了民族区域自治制度,并对民族地区的经济社会发展实施多种扶持政策和优惠政策,这些政策对于促进国家的稳定和民族地区的全面发展发挥了不可替代的作用。本文系统分析我国民族地区经济发展的特点、民族经济扶持政策的演变、民族经济扶持政策与民族地区经济发展的关系,并对我国民族地区实现经济快速健康发展、缩小民族地区与发达地区差距的途径展开了探索性分析,以期为我国创新民族地区经济扶持政策提供理论支撑。本文的主体内容包括以下几个方面:1.对已有的经济增长基础理论进行概述与阐释。阐释包括古典、新古典、新增长等主流经济学派关于经济增长的理论分析,以及发展经济学、区域经济学、新经济地理学关于经济增长的理论分析与启示。其中,Solow提出的新古典增长模型和经济收敛假说,发展经济学的非均衡发展观点,区域经济学对区位的关注,新经济地理学对经济活动空间集聚的研究,为本文研究提供了重要的理论基础,而对区域经济增长收敛与经济空间集聚分歧的研究,具有更加重要的学术价值。2.系统分析我国民族经济扶持政策的演变。我国民族政策可分为1979年以前、1979年至1992年、1992年以后3段时期。无论是在建国初期,还是在国家总体发展战略发生重大转变后,如在确立改革开发的基本政策、确立市场经济体制的主体地位时,我国均积极实施向少数民族倾斜的优惠政策,对少数民族和民族地区发展进行积极谋划和指导,并与时俱进的增加新的更大力度的少数民族政策,以适应少数民族和民族地区发展的新需求。结合历史经验和我国实际,发现制定民族政策需要把握的6项重要原则,坚持民族平等和民族团结、实施民族区域自治、发展少数民族地区经济文化事业、培养少数民族干部、尊重和发展少数民族语言文字、尊重少数民族风俗习惯和宗教信仰自由。我国民族经济扶持政策可划分为6个阶段,即建国初期的创立、“二五”时期的反复、文革时期的三线建设、拨乱反正后的恢复创新、市场经济体制时期的完善、区域协调战略时期的新发展。并且,我国民族经济扶持政策的演变与“备战”、“社会主义现代化建设”、“区域非均衡发展”、“协调发展”“西部大开发”和“可持续发展”等重大国家战略的转变密切相关。以历史视角观察可知,我国民族经济扶持政策是非常成功的,对民族平等、民族团结、民族地区稳定、边疆安全发挥重要积极作用,2000年后我国民族经济扶持政策的重点是促进民族地区经济快速发展,缩小与发达地区差距。3.我国少数民族地区经济增长。通过对民族八省区(内蒙古、宁夏、新疆、西藏、广西、青海、云南、贵州)经济增长进行研究,发现我国民族地区的经济增长情况与全国存在一定的差异,表现在经济增长速度上和人均GDP水平上,如内蒙古经济增长速度高于全国2个百分点,而西藏和贵州均低于全国1个百分点以上,在人均GDP方面,除内蒙古远远领先于全国水平外,其他省份均小于全国水平,个别省份甚至不足全国的一半,这也反映民族地区相对贫穷的基本特征。另外,八个民族省份内部在经济增长方面也存在着明显的差异,表现为三种不同经济增长类型上:内蒙古的经济快速增长,宁夏、新疆、广西的较快增长,西藏、青海、云南、贵州低于全国水平的较慢增长;各省份经济增长速度差异对GDP的累积效果最终也突出表现在人均GDP上,内蒙古人均GDP约为全国的1.6倍,宁夏、新疆、青海紧随其后,约为全国的五分之四,广西、云南、贵州因1979年时的人均GDP起点较低,较大程度上落后于全国,好在广西的增长速度略快于全国,而贵州则较为困难,其较慢的经济增长速度导致其人均GDP只是全国的五分之二。以2010年人均GDP水平和1984年后的经济增长速度为标准,可将民族地区划分为5组,经济高水平和高增长的内蒙古,中等水平和高增长的宁夏和新疆,中等水平和低增长的青海,低水平和高增长的广西,低水平和低增长的西藏、云南、贵州。通过选取有代表性的非民族地区,浙江、安徽、吉林、甘肃四省,与民族八省区进行对比分析,发现我国非民族地区的经济发展水平和经济增长速度是不均衡,除东部沿海发达省份,其他地区与民族地区的经济发展状况十分相似,如安徽、甘肃等;我国经济贫穷地区并非都是民族地区,如甘肃等,同样,民族地区并也非都是我国经济贫穷地区,如内蒙古的人均GDP和经济增长速度均处于全国前列;从经济发展速度来看,我国有些民族地区处于前列,如内蒙古、宁夏等,而有些地区仍处于较低水平,如新疆、西藏等。这意味着民族因素并非是民族地区经济落后的主要原因。此外,还发现一个地区经济发展的快慢与我国不同时期拉动经济快速增长的核心力量发展好坏密切相关,如80年代,依靠乡镇企业发展来实现快速低价工业化推动地区经济快速增长,90年代,依靠对外开放实现产业升级带动地区经济快速增长,2000年后,依靠政府大规模投资带动地区经济快速增长,如政府积极推动的城镇化和能源开发,带动钢铁、水泥、煤炭等的巨大需求,进而促进资源富集且与经济中心较近地区经济的快速发展。进一步通过比较各地区的工业化水平和1986年以来的房地产开发投资水平,发现地区经济发展水平和经济增长速度与工业化有密切关系,低水平和低增长的民族地区往往是工业化水平低的地区,房地产开发投资与地区经济也有一定关联,地区经济快速增长时期往往与房地产开发投资比例较高的时期重合,特别是2002年以来,各地区房地产开发投资比例均表现出快速上升势头,成为带动各地区经济增长的重要力量之一。总体来说,经济不发达的民族地区在工业化和加快城镇化方面还有很大作为空间,工业化和城镇化在未来较长时期内将是提高经济增长速度、缩小与富裕地区经济差距的主要手段。通过对国内各地区全要素生产率及其构成进行测算,分析民族地区经济增长可持续性及其表现,发现我国民族地区经济增长可持续性存在较大差异。其中,新疆表现最好,实现全要素生产率的快速提高,并且提高全要素生产率的来源比较均衡,经济增长可持续较强。而其他民族省份存在着不同类型的问题。例如,贵州全要素生产率增长较快,但来源单一,主要依赖于其在优化资源配置方面的提升,而这与其作为贫穷地区,在投入产出水平长期低于全国同期水平情况下不断追赶的特征相一致;若要更好地实现地区经济可持续增长,贵州需要进一步扩展提升全要素生产率的来源。宁夏全要素生产率增长较快,各方面对全要素生产率提升均有贡献,主要依赖于实现规模收益递增效应方面,这表明宁夏的投入规模历史基数较小,在一定时期内可通过扩大投入规模,实现规模收益递增效应来提高产出效率,这也意味宁夏未来需要提升其他因素对全要素生产率的贡献比例。广西全要素生产率增长较慢,全要素生产率来源情况与贵州相似,但在技术进步和技术创新方面明显不适应于经济发展需要,除了需要扩展提升全要素生产率其他来源外,还要重点大力提升纯技术效率变化。青海全要素生产率基本不变,其全要素生产率来源情况与宁夏相似,但在优化资源配置效率方面效果较差,需要充分发挥利用市场对各经济要素投入的优化配置功能,建立发达市场经济和高效率政府,提升技术变化。云南和西藏全要素生产率出现下降,其全要素生产率来源情况与青海相似,同样需要重点发挥市场对资源配置的核心作用,优化资源配置效率,提升技术变化。内蒙古全要素生产率下降严重,一方面表现出纯技术效率变化对全要素生产率的拉动,一方面在资源配置效率和规模效率方面严重不足,需要加快建立发达市场经济和提高经济投入的规模效率,避免持续增加效率低下的粗放投入。4.我国民族经济扶持政策效果——以中央对民族地区财政转移支付为实例。利用基本统计指标检验我国各省人均实际GDP收敛情况,标准差计算结果表明我国实际人均GDP存在发散现象,而变异系数结果表明我国实际人均GDP在1978年后出现收敛,标准差和变异系数计算结果均表明我国实际人均GDP速度存在收敛,基尼系数结果表明我国各省市人均实际GDP不收敛,泰尔指数结果可知各省市实际人均GDP的不平衡程度在1990年后上升,2005年后出现下降趋势,指数分解表明不平衡主要是组内差距引起的,即民族地区内部和非民族地区内部存在较大的差距,但1976年以后组内差距呈现缓慢下降趋势,而组间差距保持不断上升,这表明民族地区和非民族地区的实际人均GDP差异在扩大。利用截面数据分别检验不同起始时期我国各省绝对β收敛情况,发现我国各省存在绝对β收敛,但β系数随初始年份不同而发生较大变化。利用Islam(1995)提出的面板数据模型检验我国各省人均实际GDP的条件β收敛情况,通过加入民族地区财政转移支付指标,对我国民族经济扶持政策的作用进行计量分析。发现我国省际经济增长之间存在条件β收敛机制,即各省际经济增长收敛到不同的水平,并且因时期不同而发生变化,在1998年后时期效应开始逐年递增,意味着我国总体最终收敛水平在不断提高,这与我国经济快速发展相一致。在利用1994-2009年的样本数据研究中,引入地区财政支出对中央转移支付依存度这一新解释变量后,发现β绝对值变小,新解释变量估计系数为正,这意味着地区财政支出对中央转移支付依存度对各地区经济收敛具有正向影响,即提高中央对不发达地方财政转移支付力度,可以起到促进不发达地区经济快速增长、缩小省际经济差距、实现省际经济条件β收敛。基于上述定性和定量研究结果,结合我国实际与基础经济理论,提出我国加快民族地区经济发展与科学制定经济扶持政策的建议:①加快民族地区资本积累。②加快向民族地区的技术扩散。③实施空间集中化战略。④充分利用现有民族政策。更多还原

【Abstract】 Harmonic ethnic relation is an important way to achieve long-term stability for a multi-ethnic country. Since the founding of New China, the Chinese Communist Party and government always attach importance to the problems about minorities, establish the ethnic regional autonomy system, and implement various supporting policies to the minorities areas, which have played an irreplaceable role in the promotion of the country stability and development of minorities areas. China’s minorities policy and work have different priorities in different time. With the gradually change of China’s regional development strategy, support is gradually increased. This paper systematically analyzes the characteristics of minorities economic development, the evolution of supporting policies and the relation between the supporting policies and economic development, and analyzes the way of realizing the rapid economic development of minorities region and narrowing the gap between minorities areas and developed areas, to provide a theoretical support for the innovation of China’s economic supporting policies to minorities.The main body of this paper includes the following aspects:1. Makes an overview the theory of economic growth and display. Solow’s neoclassical growth model and the economic convergence hypothesis, development economics point of view of non-balanced development, regional economics focus on the location of the new economic geography to the study of spatial concentration of economic activity, as this study provides important theoretical foundation, while the convergence of regional economic growth and economic differences of spatial concentration, with a more important academic value.2. Analyzes the evolution of China’s supporting policies to minorities. The policy for minorities can be divided into 3 periods, such as before-1979, 1979-1992, after-1992.Supporting policies of minorities economy can be divided into six stages, namely the creation of the early days, the fluctuation of“The second five-year”period, the three-line construction during the Cultural Revolution, the innovation after chaos, the improvement in the market economy period, the new development in the period of regional coordination strategy.Supporting policy for minorities economic is very successful; it plays an important positive role for minorities equality, minorities unity, stability in the minorities region, border security. After 2000, the China’s supporting policy for minorities economic is focused on promoting economic development in minorities areas, and narrowing the gap with developed areas.3.Analyzes the economic growth of China’s minorities areas. Through the analysis on the economic growth of minorities eight provinces (Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Tibet, Guangxi, Qinghai, Yunnan, Guizhou), we found that there were some differences in the economic growth rate and in GDP per capita level between the minorities region and nation, such as Inner Mongolia’s economic growth by 2 percentage points higher than the nation, while Tibet and Guizhou are more than 1 percentage point lower than the country in per capita GDP, in addition to Inner Mongolia, far ahead of the nation level, the other provinces were less than the minorities level, even less than half of the country, which also reflect the relatively poor features of minorities areas. In addition, the economic growth of eight minorities areas are also significant differences. With the standard made by the level of per capita GDP in 2010 and economic growth rate after 1984, minorities areas can be divided into five groups, Inner Mongolia of high economic growth and high levels, Ningxia and Xinjiang of middle level and high-growth, Qinghai of middle level and low growth, Guangxi of low and high growth, Tibet, Yunnan, Guizhou of low-level and low growth.By selecting a representative of the non-minorities areas, Zhejiang, Anhui, Jilin and Gansu provinces compared with the eight minorities provinces, we found that economic development level and economic growth of non-minorities areas is uneven, in addition to the eastern coastal provinces, economic development of other regions and minorities regions are very similar, such as Anhui, Gansu, etc.; poor areas of China’s economy is not all minorities areas, such as Gansu, and Inner Mongolia. This means that minorities factors are not the main reason lead the minorities regional economy to be poor. since 2002, regional real estate development and investment ratio showed a rapid upward trend, as promote regional economic growth is one important force. Overall, the economic underdevelopment of the minorities areas to speed up the industrialization and urbanization, there is still a large space and long period of time in the future, by industrialization and urbanization, to improve economic growth and narrow the economic gap with rich region.Through the measurement of total factor productivity and its composition of various regions, we analyzed sustainability of minorities regional economic growth, and found that the sustainability are quite different. Among them, the best performance is Xinjiang, which achieves the rapid increase in total factor productivity, and makes the sources of total factor productivity more balanced. There are different types of problems in other minorities provinces. For example, Guizhou, whose total factor productivity grew rapidly by a single source, that depends on its optimal resource allocation in the upgrade with a poor input-output level below the nation, so it is better for Guizhou to expand the source of total factor productivity.4. Effects of the supporting policies of minorities economy– based on the national fiscal transfer payment. We tested China’s convergence of per capita real GDP by using the basic statistical indicators. The standard deviation shows that the existence divergence phenomenon of China’s real GDP per capita. Theil index shows that the provincial imbalance of real GDP per capita level is increased in 1990, and declined after 2005, and the imbalance is mainly caused by the gap within the group, indicating that the real GDP per capita differences between minorities and non-minorities areas is in the expansion. Cross-sectional data were used to test absolute convergence of China’s provinces with different starting times, and found that there is absolute convergence of China’s provinces, and coefficient is different with the change of initial year.Based on the panel data model proposed by Islam, we checked conditional convergence of real GDP per capita of China’s provinces, and found that there was conditional convergence in economic growth, and real GDP per capita of different provinces convergence to different levels. In the use of sample data of 1994-2009, with the introduction of national fiscal transfer payments as the new explanatory variables, we found that the absolute value of parameter became smaller, and the estimated coefficient is positive, which meant that transfers has a positive effect on regional economic convergence, namely, increasing transfer payments to underdeveloped areas, may help promote economic growth in underdeveloped areas, narrowing the economic gap, achieve the provincial conditions convergence.Based on the above qualitative and quantitative research results, combined with China’s reality, we put forward the advices on accelerating the development of China’s minorities economic: Speed up capital accumulation in minorities areas. Minority areas Speed up the diffusion of technology in minorities areas. Implement the space decentralization strategy. Benefit from the existing minorities policies.更多还原