【作者】 霍良安；

【导师】 黄培清；

【作者基本信息】 上海交通大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 2011年日本大地震后，有关碘盐抗辐射的不实信息引发抢购食盐风波引起了民众恐慌，造成了极其混乱的局面，严重影响了人民的正常生活，大大降低了人民生活的幸福指数。事实表明，不实信息尤其是负面消极信息的广泛传播，会产生极其恶劣的影响，往往比直接的突发事件本身更能影响广大群众的正常工作与生活，甚至危机社会和政治的稳定。突发事件发生后，人们对于信息的渴求异于平常，如果这个时候政府和媒体对信息的传播不加以透明化、详细化、控制化，可能会导致小道消息满天飞、人们心理情绪极度紧张、各种慌乱不时发生，造成比自然灾害本身更加严重的后果。相反，如果在政府、媒体、公众三者之间存在一个畅通的信息传播渠道和有效的信息传播模式，则有利于降低社会恐慌、减少事件中不良效应的扩展与传播、搭建信息上下沟通的平台，而且能够更好的建立政府和媒体的公信力，树立二者良好的形象。论文以不实信息为研究主体，以系统动力学为基础，针对现代不实信息传播的新特点，从个体对于信息的认知模式、社会层面的不实信息分析方法和传播规律、以及应急管理层面的政府决策对于不实信息传播的影响，系统地研究在非常规突发事件发生后个体的不实信息认知和情绪、不实信息传播规律、控制策略以及官方应急处理与不实信息传播之间的关系，从而提高政府有关部门对不实信息和舆情的判断能力和公共宣传能力，通过不同情景下有效地干预、控制和引导社会公众行为提供决策理论、方法和决策支持工具。第一章是绪论部分，这部分内容主要阐述本研究选题的背景、研究的技术路线，并且讨论了研究主要创新点和所期望达到的研究目标。第二章是文献综述部分，分析和探讨已有信息传播的相关研究，包括对已有的研究进行回顾，评论已有方法的不足，确定需要进一步研究的方向。第三章是相关概念，鉴于目前对于信息的定义界定存在模糊的情况，论文基于谣言、谎言等信息，首次界定了不实信息的概念。第四章研究了有关不实信息的竞争传播问题。主要包括两个方面：一是，有关信息本身的竞争与传播；按照不实信息的定义，不实信息本身实际包含反应实际情况的真实信息，同时包含由于在传播中扭曲或者人为捏造的虚假信息。民众如何从混乱的不实信息中辨识真实信息和虚假信息，避免造成社会损失，是作者研究的一个出发点。基于Gilpin-Ayala扩散模型，建立突发事件中不实信的竞争扩散与传播模型，并对模型的动态过程进行深入分析。二是，有关不实信息受众个体之间的竞争，可以说“不实信息止于智者”，所谓的“智者”假设是理性人群，他们对于不实信息有自己的理解与认识；与之对应存在一部分有限理性人群，他们对不实信息一时不能辨识，极有可能相信并积极传播。结合定量动力学模型进一步阐述谚语的理论意义，利用微分动力系统理论研究了不实信息的传播规律，探讨不实信息传播的最终稳定性状态，得到了不实信息是否蔓延的阈值。通过对参数的控制，可以调整不实信息控制策略，为管理者在舆论控制决策中提供理论支持和决策依据。第五章在经典的不实信息传播模型的基础上，考虑了不实信息传播的潜伏阶段，分别考虑潜伏阶段的个体是否传播不实信息的动力学模型，探讨不实信息的传播机理，得到不实信息控制的阈值，最后比较了两种情形下的控制策略的异同，得到应急管理的启示与思考。第六章主要研究了不实信息在传播过程中的影响因素，个体的心理效应对于不实信息传播的影响。本文考虑一个受到个体心理效应影响的不实信息传播率，以非线性的形式体现在不实信息传播的动力学模型中，通过比较与数据的模拟说明了非线性传播率的合理性。在此基础上，探讨了不实信息控制的阈值，对应提出了不实信息应急管理的建议与策略。第七章基于系统动力学的思想，提出了不实信息的动态传播模型，刻画了科普教育以及媒体覆盖对于不实信息传播的影响，分析了模型的稳定性态。为了克服静态决策的局限性，论文基于最优控制理论的方法，构建了社会效用最大化得控制模型，利用庞特里亚金最大值原理，进一步探讨得出了不实信息传播的动态最优控制策略。最后，基于模型推导结论和数据模拟，说明了最优控制的优势所在，提出了在应急管理中不实信息的控制建议与思考，为应急管理奠定了理论基础和决策依据。第八章主要探讨以政府为代表的不实信息管理者在应急处理中扮演的角色，借助交互模型刻画应急处理效用与不实信息传播效用之间的相互影响，动态掌握二者的之间的交互关系，通过模型的分析与探讨，在不同的情况下，管理者应急投入相应也不同，进而保证应急管理的社会效用最大化。第九章是对全文研究工作的总结。其中包括主要研究结论、关键创新点、管理启示、研究局限与研究展望等。本文的创新点主要体现在以下几个方面：（1）鉴于目前对于流言的定义界定存在模糊的情况，论文基于谣言、谎言等不同观点，首次界定了不实信息的概念。（2）研究了有关不实信息的竞争传播问题，分别从信息本身的角度和信息传播受众的角度来研究，可以更加全面的剖析有关不实信息传播过程中的竞争问题，丰富了目前信息竞争的研究。（3）结合不实信息传播的实际，论文探讨了具有潜伏期的不实信息传播问题。分别考虑潜伏阶段的个体是否传播不实信息的动力学模型，探讨不实信息的传播机理，拓展了经典的信息传播模型，模型结果更加符实际情况，得到的管理学启示更有说服力。（4）研究不实信息在传播过程中的影响因素，考虑个体的心理效应，媒体覆盖，科学知识普及等都对于突发事件后的不实信息传播造成影响，从控制论的角度探讨了外界因素对于不实信息传播的最优控制问题。本研究所提出的模型将进一步丰富在信息的传播理论，提供了信息研究的新视角。（5）借助交互模型刻画应急处理效用与不实信息传播效用之间的相互影响，动态掌握二者的之间的交互关系，有利于管理者在实际管理中对于应急救援和信息控制的平衡，保证应急策略的高效性，减少社会损失。更多还原

【Abstract】 After the earthquake in Japan last year, the unconfirmed information about edible iodinsalt with the functionality of anti-radiation had already triggered stampedes at supermarketsfor iodin salt, which had aroused the people’s extreme panic in the chaotic situation, andseriously influenced people’s life, it actually causing lower average levels of happiness andlife satisfaction. In fact, the spread of the unconfirmed information which can create anodious influence, especially the fake information, can easily affect people’s work and lifethan the disastrous itself, and even trigger social unrest and snowball into a political crisis.People are hungry for information about the emergency event after the interruption, somegossip of the emergencies news will fill all the place if the government departments andmedia deliberately make information asymmetry, vague, non-transparent. Consequently,many people suffer from the stress and anxiety, which can certainly lead to very seriousconsequences in the emergent event. On the contrary, if the government, media and the publiccommunicate closely with each other, then correct, timely information channels can be easilyobtained and made available to all. This will help reduce the social panic and adverse effectsof the expansion and dissemination of the unconfirmed information, and build the platformand standardized disclosure mechanism of information,.This will enhance people’s trust inthe government and media, it is very critical in establishing the positive image for them.In this paper, the unconfirmed information is the research subjects, it is based on systemdynamics and the new features of unconfirmed information transmission process. This studyincludes: the cognitive mode of the information of the individual, the analytied methods andpropagation law for unconfirmed information from the social dimension, and the significant implication for unconfirmed information spreading generated by the authorities’ actions.Then, people’s emotional and cognitive, the propagation and control strategies, the relationbetween authorities’ actions and unconfirmed information spreading were researchedsystematically. That will be helpful for judgment and publicity planning capabilities of theauthorities for unconfirmed information in emergency event. By effective intervening,controlling and guiding public social behavior，it will provide a theory and decisionsupporting tools for managersChapter1is introduction. The research expatiates on the thesis’s research background,why the thesis focuses on this issue, how does this thesis is conducted, the main innovativepoints of this paper, and the expecting objectives of this research.Chapter2is literature review and evaluation. The research analyzes and reviews prioralliance related researches, including the existing researches, and also examines theinsufficiencies of the current methods.Chapter3is about related concepts, because of the exacting vaguer definitions of gossip,a new concept of the unconfirmed information is introduced.Chapter4is about competition for unconfirmed information. Firstly, competition for theunconfirmed information spreading itself is researched. Unconfirmed information involvesthe true news and fake messages, people need to make sense out of confusion and uncertainty,it is a key to preventing the accident and easing loss of the accident, this is also why thisarticle chooses this field as main research objective. Competitive model about unconfirmedinformation is proposed based on Gilpin-Ayala diffusion model, and procedure ofcompetition and diffusion is analyzed thoroughly. Secondly, competition among the targetedaudience is studied. It is said that unconfirmed information stops at the wise, who has goodidentifiable ability for unconfirmed information. Other people are considered as the limitedrationalists, thus these two group of people need to compete. In this study, the quantitativeanalysis with the support of the dynamic mathematics model is proposed. Using the theory of differential dynamical system, the status and stability of the rumor spreading are analyzed.After the propagation regularity of rumors is discussed, the thresholds are obtained. Thecontrol policies for rumor spreading are obtained by adjusting the parameters. The results ofthe thesis will provide the theoretical support to information control and can be referral fordecision makers’management on public opinions.Chapter5researches unconfirmed information transmission model with incubation. Itincorporates infectious force in the latent period. The mechanism of the unconfirmedinformation transmission is discussed, the threshold of control of unconfirmed informationcan be obtained, the similarities and differences of control strategies are compared,suggestions and inspirations to emergency management are achieved.Chapter6researches dynamical behavior of a transmission model with psychologicaleffect. The unconfirmed information transmission model with nonmonotonic incidence rate isproposed, which describes the psychological effect of certain serious information on thecommunity when the number of the infectives gets larger. The feasibility and rationality ofthis method are proved by the result of example. Finally, we outlined some strategies formanagers that can contribute to rumor control in an emergent event.Chapter7researches the optimal control for unconfirmed information. In this study, thedissemination of unconfirmed information after the emergency occurs is researched based ondynamic method. Firstly, the dynamic model for unconfirmed information spreading isproposed, which depicts the impact of media coverage and science education on thetransmission dynamics of information, and then the stability analysis is studied. Secondly, Inorder to overcome the limit of traditional methods of the static decision problem, the dynamicoptimal control for the transmission unconfirmed information is proposed based on thetheorem of the optimal control. An optimal objective based on the maximum social utility isestablished and the optimal solution is acquired by using the Pontryagin maximum principle.Compared with traditional control method, dynamic optimal control method has the obvious superiority in modeling. Based on the above generalizations, the paper presents somestrategies for unconfirmed information spreading and puts forward emergencydecision-making theoretical foundation and methodology basis.Chapter8researches an interplay model for authorities’ actions and unconfirmedinformation spreading. In this study, we present a simple model to describe the interplaybetween rumor spreading and authorities’ actions in emergency situation based on utilitytheory. By drawing from differential equations we find that it is possible to minimize negativesocial utility of rumor spreading in the control of situation. At the same time, authorities’proactive actions can improve rumor management in emergency situation and yield positivesocial utility. Once the relation of those two elements is mastered, it will help maximizemanagement’s utility.Chapter9is conclusion and prospect. An overall summary is presented in this chapter,including important research conclusion, key contribution points, and suggestions tomanagement. This chapter also points out the research limitation and some suggestions forfuture research.This research includes the following contributions and innovations:（1）Because of the exacting vaguer definitions of gossip, a new concept of theunconfirmed information is introduced.（2） Competition for unconfirmed information is researched from the angle of theunconfirmed information itself and the targeted audiences, respectively. A betterunderstanding of the competition for unconfirmed information spreading is achieved in thispaper. The study will fill up the blank of competition information research.（3）The unconfirmed information transmission model with incubation is proposed,which incorporates infectious force in the latent period. Some modifications and extensionfor the classical model of information spreading are obtained. This result meets the actualcircs better and easier to be understood. （4）Some factors affecting the unconfirmed information transmission are considered,such as psychological effect for individual, media coverage and science education. Anoptimal objective based on the maximum social utility is established and the optimal solutionis acquired by using the Pontryagin maximum principle. The research to the optimal controltheory has provided a new visual angle to unconfirmed information spreading and hasenriched information research at the same time.（5）We present a simple model to describe the interplay between rumor spreading andauthorities’ actions in emergency situation based on utility theory. Only on this condition, itcan contribute to grasp the law of interplay relations better. This will induce emergencymanager to balance the emergency rescues with the control of information. It can guaranteethe efficiency for emergency strategies, minimize the losses caused by the disaster.更多还原