大都市连绵带综合交通演化与发展模式研究

【作者】 韩宝睿；

【导师】 杨涛；

【作者基本信息】 南京林业大学 ， 森林工程， 2012， 博士

【副题名】以沪宁大都市连绵带为例

【摘要】 大都市连绵带（以下简称MIR）是目前区域城市化发展的最高阶段，该区域内存在多个大都市核心，周边数十个中小城市相互紧密联系，景观上形成连绵不断的城市形态。也是一个国家和地区内经济最发达、最活跃、最具有竞争力的区域。然而对于这样一个新型发达地区，应该构筑一个什么样的MIR交通体系目前并没有明确的概念。现有的交通规划理论并不能全面指导这样高级、复杂、大范围区域的综合交通规划。本论文从交通本源出发，以MIR区域的产生与发展为线索，运用城市规划与空间演变的原理，深入分析MIR内交通发展与城镇发展的相互关系，从而寻找出MIR交通结构演变与发展的一般性规律。论文主要在以下几个方面取得了一定研究成果与结论。（1）运用城市地理学、社会学的观点，综合前人研究成果，对MIR区域产生、特点以及空间演化过程做了总结与分析，研究认为除了传统定义MIR之外，空间的斑块化、破碎化特点是MIR区域与其他类型城市化区域差别最大的地方。此外，研究显示，交通工具的不断更新导致MIR范围不断延伸，MIR空间发展在地理空间范围上有进一步扩展趋势。（2）在总结大量国外研究成果的基础上，分析了发达国家（美国、欧洲、日本）MIR的交通结构、政策与对策。从对比中发现发达国家在MIR内部注重控制土地蔓延使用、环境保护、交通结构与连绵带形态之间的共同之处，也总结出各国的差异。此外，为使研究成果更加适合于国内参考，论文也分析了东南亚、拉丁美洲等人口稠密城市化密集区域的交通发展情况。研究认为拉美主要大都市区的公共交通发展模式值得中国借鉴。（3）运用城市空间演化理论，对MIR交通与城镇发展的互动关系做了较为充分的研究。深刻分析了水运、公路、铁路、民航几类运输系统对大都市连绵带产生、发展以及优化起到的作用。总结和揭示出几个重要结论：水运是MIR发展的基础动力，也是对外经济的基础；公路运输是MIR的稳定力量，引导区域繁荣与蔓延，形成产业集结；轨道交通是MIR发展的新型动力与核心力量；民航运输是外向型新型经济的加速器与孵化器。论文在进行理论分析的同时也注重与国内实际结合，分别讨论了国内内河运输更新、轨道交通站点与郊区土地开发以及民航机场的布局等重大问题的发展趋势与原则。（4）论文深入分析了当今MIR作为宏观背景下的综合交通规划理论的改进与不足。从规划过程、目标、方法上做了反思，提出了面对新形势下的战略交通规划理念和过程。研究认为，由于MIR面积广大和不确定因素多带来的复杂性，一般情况下使所涉及到的研究内容数据众多而很难全面综合分析这样的问题，运用情景分析理论可以从新的角度重新审视规划的背景和范围、规划的目的和作用。论文将交通战略应对按照情景规划的方法进行分析，以系统论的观点分析交通系统内部的结构、组成、分布。运用逻辑推理和情景演绎制定未来交通战略的模式，为大区域综合交通规划提供了新的研究思路。（5）根据沪宁MIR的翔实资料，梳理与总结出该连绵带的发展背景与特征，从宏观角度分析了区域内交通战略需求与发展方向。重点解读了沪宁MIR的经济发展动力、能源需求与运输、主要物资（如钢铁、煤炭、粮食等）战略运输等一系列与交通运输战略相关的重大问题。结合世界全球化和能源环境安全等战略背景，分析沪宁MIR可能的运输前景和方式。研究认为，区域内内河运输设备与管理水平滞后，海运较为发达，已经成为区域经济增长极；区域内公路网运输内存在一定的不平衡；轨道交通发展较快，城际轨道交通尚不能适应都市连绵带出行特征与需求。民航需求增长迅速，将成为国内主要航空枢纽区域，但机场密度、运营管理远不能满足未来发展。（6）以交通区位论、交通地理学、运输工程学为主要理论基础，将通道与走廊以及枢纽规划理论作为MIR交通规划的重要的支撑理论。通道与走廊是MIR区域内最为重要的交通载体和体系，是形成MIR的骨架。论文借鉴了国内外的研究成果，区分了通道与走廊的概念。将大都市连绵带的通道、运输走廊进行了分类与分级研究。着眼于通道的发展演化，重点分析了通道的结构和功能。分析了沪宁地区交通通道的等级与各自趋势。最后针对沪宁走廊，验证其产生、演化以及结构的形成机理。并对未来结构做出预判。研究也以相同方法对交通枢纽进行了分类与排序，以MIR为背景，研究各类运输枢纽在城市发展演化中所起作用。研究以综合交通枢纽为总体背景，分析公、铁、水、空各类枢纽的功能与发展趋势。根据综合交通规划要求，逐项列举这些枢纽在位置、规模、容量在指标上的变化趋势。（7）研究认为健康发展的大都市边缘区域和郊区将是未来MIR成功发展的关键所在。而MIR边缘区域的交通结构将成为这类区域最有创新最有活力和代表性的新型交通发展方向。本文从微观角度，以沪宁区域内大都市郊区化特点和趋势为研究线索，以大都市边缘区域的居民出行产生与特点为目标，参考和借鉴了国内外大量的相关研究成果，总结出国内大都市边缘区域居民通勤出行、生活出行的趋势。研究考虑了边缘区域（郊区）居民通勤出行的方向、距离、时间与分布特点，并分析了这些特点背后的作用因素，比较了国内外郊区通勤的差别，并提出适应新发展过程的规划理念。此外，对郊区居民生活出行频率、距离与分布规律做出总结。研究提出在MIR边缘区建设中，应以紧缩城市、公交都市等新兴理论指导城市发展，对郊区公共交通发展方式、合乘以及郊区公共交通设施建设提出了建设性意见。论文研究涵盖了大都市连绵带综合交通的起源与发展规律、各类设施在系统中的作用与结构研究、规划方法和理念的更新与探索。并将理论与思想贯穿应用于沪宁MIR的综合交通战略研究。研究成果可为大都市连绵带发展机理的认识提供新的思路，为综合交通规划提供理论与方法的借鉴。更多还原

【Abstract】 Metropolitan Interlocking Region (MIR for short) is so far the highest level ofurbanization. It’s polynucleared by multiple metropolises and surrounded by dozensof medium sized and small cities. And it forms successive urban spatial landscapes.MIR is the most developed active and competitive area in a country or a region.However, there is yet to establish an explicit traffic system for MIRs because thetraditional traffic planning theory cannot comprehensively guide the traffic planningof such highly developed and vast regions. Based on the origin of transportation andclued by the emergence and development of MIR, this thesis looks into therelationship between the development of transportation and urbanization thusexplores the general law of the evolution and development of MIR traffic structure.Its researches have achieved some conclusions in the following aspects:(1) The thesis makes use of the perspectives of urban geography and sociology,refers to the existing achievements and has summarized and analyzed the emergence,characteristics and the process of the spatial evolution of MIR. The thesisemphasizes that besides the traditional definition of MIR, its spatial patches andfragmentations prominently distinguish from other types of urbanizations. Inaddition, the thesis shows that the constant updates of traffic means are resulting inthe constant growth of MIR. There is a tendency for MIR’s further extension ingeographical space.(2) On the basis of the summarization of abundant domestic and foreignresearches, this thesis analyzes the MIR transportation structures, policies andstrategies in some developed countries (USA, Europe and Japan). It finds thecommon practice in these countries regarding the control of land use, environmentalprotection, traffic construction and the patterns of MIR. Meanwhile, it also revealstheir differences. In addition, in order to make the researches adaptable in China,this thesis analyzes the traffic developments in some densely urbanized regions inSoutheast Asia and Latin America. This thesis believes that the modes of publictransportation in the major metropolises in Latin America are worth being referred tofor china.(3) Using the evolution theory of urban land-use with a historical perspective,the thesis studies the interaction between the development of traffic and urbanization.It thoroughly illustrates the roles that traffic systems such as waterway, highway,railway and aviation have played in the emergence, development and optimization ofMIR. It concludes that waterway is the fundamental driving force of MIR’sdevelopment and external economy; highway is the stabilizing force of MIR which assembles industries and leads to regional prosperity and sustainability, railway is anew type of driving force and the core of MIR’s development while aviation is theaccelerator and hatcher of the export-oriented economy. Bonding its studies oftheories with the facts and practice in China, this thesis respectively discusses thetrends and principles of big issues such as the updates of domestic inland watertransport, the setting of sites of rail transport, the exploitation of suburban land andthe overall arrangement of civil airports.(4) The thesis thoroughly analyzes the improvements and shortages of thetheory of the comprehensive traffic planning. Based on the introspection of theplanning process, objectives and methods, it proposes some new thinking for the newsituations. The thesis believes that due to the complexity generated by thelarge-scale participation of multiple transportation means, it’s difficult to conduct acomplete analysis regarding such an issue which involves a lot of context and data.Instead, the use of Scenario Planning theory can provide a new perspective of thebackground, scope, objective and effect of the planning. The thesis uses anexploratory approach to study into the scenario analysis in reflection of the structure,composition and distribution of a traffic system. Meanwhile, the thesis selectivelyanalyzes scenario simulation and reasoning theory, thus provides new thinking forlarge-scale comprehensive traffic planning.(5) Based on the data of Shanghai-Nanjing MIR, the thesis summarizes thebackground and features of the development of this region and analyzes the regionalstrategic needs in transportation and its development direction. It focuses on a seriesof traffic strategy related issues such as the driving force of Shanghai-NanjingMIR’s economy, energy demand and traffic, key materials (steel, coal and grain, etc)transportation. Combining the strategic background of globalization and energyenvironmental security, the thesis anticipates the possible traffic perspective andmeans of Shanghai-Nanjing MIR. The research believes that the facilities andmanagement of the inland water transport in the region is crucially backward whilethe sea transportation is relatively advanced which has already become the economicgrowth pole of the region. The freeway network is currently saturated but thedevelopment of secondary freeway network is seriously unbalanced. The railfacilities are backward, intercity transportation can yet meet the needs of the MIR.With the rapid development of the civil aviation, this region has become a key hub ofair transport in China. But the density of airports and management level are farbehind the future needs.(6) Based on the traffic location theory, traffic geography and trafficengineering, the thesis is supported by the theories of channel, corridor and hubplanning. Channels and corridors are considered as the most important traffic carrier and are the basic framework of MIR. With the reference of domestic and foreignresearches, the thesis distinguishes the concepts of channels and corridors. It carriesout categorized and graded researches on channels and corridors in MIR, specifies inthe evolution, structures and functions of channels. On the basis of the trafficlocation theory, it also analyzes the classification and trends of the traffic channelsin Shanghai-Nanjing MIR, thus carries out an anticipation of its future planning.With the same methodology, the thesis categorizes and sequences all kinds oftraffic hubs in MIR, and studies the different roles they play in the development andevolution of cities. In the thesis, the variation tendencies of the locations, sizes andcapacities of highway, railway, waterway and aviation hubs are enumeratedaccording to the requests of the comprehensive traffic planning.(7)The studies suggest that healthily developing metropolitan fringe andsuburbs is the key to the successful development of MIR in the future. And thetraffic structure in the fringe will stand as the symbol of innovation and dynamism ofthe new traffic pattern. The thesis looks into the characteristics and trends of thesuburbanization of Shanghai-Nanjing MIR, the different means and frequencies oftrips of the residents in the fringe area thus summarizes the directions, distance, timeand distribution of the residents’ daily trips and commutes. With the comparisonwith these factors in some foreign countries, it proposes the planning principleswhich can be adapted in the future development. It also provides a lot ofconstructive suggestions on the pattern of public transportation, sharedtransportation and the planning of the public transportation facilities in the suburbanareas. It believes the new concepts of retrenched cities and public transportationoriented cities should be considered as the guide in the development of fringe area ofMIR.The thesis covers the origin and development law of MIR, the research of thefunctions and structures of all kinds of facilities, the updates and exploration ofplanning methodologies. It integrates the theories and thinking into thecomprehensive traffic strategy research of Shanghai-Nanjing MIR. The findings canbe of help and reference for the cognition of MIR development theory and thecomprehensive traffic planning.更多还原