【作者】 刘毅；

【导师】 汪波；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 企业管理， 2012， 博士

【副题名】以天津滨海新区为例

【摘要】 长久以来,以资源的“高开采、高投入、高消耗”来换取经济的高增长,同时附带产生“高浪费、高排放、高污染”的传统线性经济增长模式,造成了自然资源的几近枯竭与生态环境的严重破坏。在这一背景下,循环经济的概念应运而生。循环经济是在可持续发展思想指导下的一种闭环物质流动型经济,即按照清洁生产的方式,对能源及其废弃物实行综合利用,把经济活动组成一个“资源——产品——再生资源”的反馈式流程,从而达到“低开采、低排放、高利用”的目的。作为经济发展重要组成元素的区域经济,已经成为目前乃至未来影响经济全局发展的重中之重,作为循环经济实施的重要组成单元,区域循环经济的发展将直接影响着国家战略体系的实施与完善。本文正是从以上角度出发,立足于研究区域循环经济的发展模式,从定量的角度对区域循环经济的发展情况做出准确的综合评价,并在此基础上动态考察区域循环经济的发展变化情况,从中挖掘出其路径演进的规律,并根据此规律提出相应的政策性建议,以期能够对促进区域循环经济健康快速的发展提供一定的帮助。本文首先对区域循环经济相关理论做了非常详细的综述,分别以“区域”、“循环经济”、“区域循环经济”为对象系统梳理和总结了相关文献的研究成果,为全文的论述打下了非常坚实的理论基础。其次,对区域循环经济的发展模式进行了详细的分析。从系统动力学的角度构建了区域循环经济系统及其概念模型,并对其组成要素、功能与特征等依次做了介绍。在此基础上,阐述了区域循环经济系统发展的动力及制约因素,明确了发展动力主要来自于生态支持力、经济发展力、社会稳定力等;而制约因素则主要来自于区域内生态状况、经济发展状况、政策制度、技术实力、公众生态意识等。然后从农业循环模式、工业循环模式、生态服务业模式、废弃物资源化产业等角度论述了区域循环经济的产业层面,并以德国模式和日本模式为例,列举了国外循环经济发展的经验借鉴。再次,系统阐述了区域循环经济的发展评价过程。在简要的概述了评价的目的与意义、评价的性质、评价的研究现状等基础上,系统梳理和总结了区域循环经济发展评价指标体系的现有研究文献与资料,并在此基础上按照指标筛选与确定的相关原则,构建了具有多层次、多指标结构的区域循环经济发展评价指标体系,并对指标体系做了全面的解释与阐述。在确定评价指标的权重时采用了“AHP层次分析法+熵值法”综合赋权法,使得评价指标权重确定的过程更加科学合理。在对区域循环经济发展进行综合评价时,创新性的选用了TOPSIS法,使得评价的过程更加简洁精确。接着,对区域循环经济发展的路径演进过程进行了分析。这是本文最大的创新点,通过构建“区域循环经济发展路径演进模型”,对区域循环经济的发展演进情况进行了动态考察,通过模型空间点在某段时间序列上运行轨迹的变化,对区域循环经济发展的路径演进过程进行了真实的模拟,并从中找出区域循环经济发展路径演进的规律,进而对区域循环经济未来的发展方向进行预测。最后,以天津滨海新区为对象进行了实证研究。实证研究过程在介绍了天津滨海新区的基本情况、循环经济的发展现状基础上,对天津滨海新区循环经济的发展情况进行了基于TOPSIS法的综合评价;接着,用区域循环经济发展路径演进模型对天津滨海新区循环经济发展演进的路径做了分析,并从中提炼出其发展演进的规律,基于此规律对滨海新区循环经济未来的发展方向提出了预测,并针对滨海新区循环经济发展的现状及存在的问题提出了政策性建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The traditional linear model of economic growth which developing with "high extraction, high input, high consumption" resources in exchange for high economic growth, while with a "high waste, high-emission, high pollution," resulting in natural resources nearly exhausted and serious damage to the environment. In this context, emerged the concept of circular economy. Circular economy is a closed-loop material flow-based economy under the guidance of sustainable development, which in accordance with cleaner production methods, implements the comprehensive utilization of energy and waste, makes economic activity a feedback process in the formation of "resources - products - renewable resources ", so as to achieve" low extraction, low emission, high-use "purposes. As a vital component of economic development, regional economy has become the weight impact of the global development of economy present and future, as an integral unit among the implementation of circular economy, the development of regional circular economy will directly affect the implementation of national strategies and improve system. From the above point of view, this article studies the development model of recycling economy, makes accurate and comprehensive evaluation of development of regional circular economy from a quantitative point of view, and on this basis, examines the changes of development of regional circular economy dynamically, digging out the law of its evolution path, and gives the corresponding policy according to this law, and gives recommendations to the healthy and rapid development of regional recycling economy.Firstly, this paper has done a very detailed overview of the theory of regional recycling economy, puts "regional", "recycling economy", "regional recycling economy" as the object system to collate and summarize the relevant research literature, as laid a very solid theoretical basis to the full discussion of this paper.Secondly, gives a detailed analysis to the regional recycling economy development model. To build a regional system and its conceptual model of circular economy from the perspective of system dynamics, and its constituent elements, functions and characteristics have been described in turn. On this basis, describes the power system and economic constraints of regional circular economy, points out that the main driving force comes from the eco-supportive, force of economic development, social stability, etc.; and constraints within the region are mainly from the ecological conditions, economic development, policies and systems, technical strength, public ecological awareness. Discusses circulation patterns from the agricultural, industrial circulation patterns, eco-services model, waste recycling industry and other point of view on the regional level of circular economy, and set the German model and the Japanese model as examples, cited the experience of foreign countries learn circular economy.Again, describes the development of regional recycling economy evaluation process. After a brief overview of the purpose and significance of evaluation, the nature of evaluation, evaluation of research status, etc., tries to collate and summarize the evaluation index system of regional circular economy on the basis of the existing research literature and data, and targets to the relevant principles, constructed with multi-level structure of the target evaluation index system of regional circular economy, and a comprehensive interpretation and elaboration has given to the index system. In determining the weight of evaluation used the "AHP AHP + entropy" comprehensive weighting method, which makes the determination process of evaluation index weights more scientific and rational. Uses the TOPSIS method during the process of evaluation of regional circular economy development, which makes the evaluation process more simple and accurate.Then, the evolution path of regional circular economic development was analyzed. This is the greatest innovation of this paper, by constructing "path evolution model of regional circular economiy", dynamically studied the evolution of the regional circular economy, through the trajectory changes of points in the model space during a certain time series, gave a simulation to the evolution path of the regional circular economic development, and find out the laws of path evolution of regional circular economy, and predict the future on the development of regional circular economy.Finally, gave an empirical study as the object of Tianjin Binhai New Area. Empirical process introduced the basic situation of Tianjin Binhai New Area, the current situation of the development of circular economy of Tianjin Binhai New Area, gave a comprehensive evaluation of the development of circular economy based on TOPSIS method; then, analyzed the evolution path of circular economy of Tianjin Binhai New Area with the path evolution model of regional circular economy, and extracted the law of the evolution of its development, then made a prediction to the future of the circular economy of Tianjin Binhai New Area, and policy recommendations were given for the existence issues in the development of cirrular economy of Binhai New Area.更多还原