【作者】 俞力玲；

【导师】 夏洪山；

【作者基本信息】 南京航空航天大学 ， 交通信息工程及控制， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 民航安全是民航发展的基础,民航安全管理具有系统性、持续性、国际性和信息化的行业特点,建立与我国民航发展相适应的安全管理系统是我国民航安全管理实际工作的迫切需要。本文以科学发展观和系统安全思想为指导,对如何在新形势下完善民航安全管理系统,提高安全管理效率进行了探索性的基础研究。本文重点研究了以下内容:1.民航安全管理对民航发展的促进和约束作用。从民航安全管理的时空尺度出发,分析了民航发展随国民经济发展的客观规律、民航安全随民航发展的客观规律以及它们之间的相关性,研究了民航安全压力的形成、波动与传导的模型和机制。2.民航安全管理的效率理论,包括民航安全管理效率的内涵、传导机制以及测度指标,对安全管理效率的正确认识和量化评价。3.提高民航安全管理效率的体制基础。分析了民航安全管理系统的基本属性和功能,提出了我国民航安全管理系统功能结构的ROSE模型。基于ROSE模型,分析了民航安全管理系统中政府宏观层面和企业微观层面的特点,研究了民航安全管理系统的核心要素与外围要素及其之间的辩证关系。4.提高民航安全管理效率的信息基础。针对在系统安全管理中居核心地位的风险管理问题,从认识论高度探究民航安全风险认知的内在机理,提出了基于不完整信息的风险认知的风险分类理论;从方法论的高度探讨了风险监测信息的开发利用,设计了风险监测模型;从航空安全信息资源国际共享的高度,对比研究了中国、国际民航组织以及欧盟有关航空安全信息的规章及信息分类方法,利用开发的中欧航空安全信息资源共享的原型系统研究了民航安全信息资源国际共享机制。5.提高民航安全管理效率的关键技术支持。飞行运行是保证民航安全的关键环节,通过采用科学手段可以降低飞行员的人为失误,控制飞行运行风险。讨论了飞行品质监控技术、管理及其局限性,研究了基于BP神经网络算法的飞行运行风险评估方法。6.建设民航安全管理系统的战略选择。以自组织理论为指导研究了国际民航业和中国民航安全管理系统建设的实践经验;以提高安全管理效率为核心,探讨我国民航安全管理系统的发展问题,提出了建设高效的中国民航安全管理系统的战略意义、主要原则、实施战略和重点环节,探索了全面、持久地提高民航安全管理效率的实现途径。更多还原

【Abstract】 Aviation safety is the basis of civil aviation development. The safety management of civil aviation industry has the industrial specialties of systematism, continuity, internationality and informationization. It is urgent to build a high-efficient safety management system keeping pace with the high-speed developing civil aviation industry in China. Guilding by scientific outlook on development and systematic safety thought, the dissertation makes exploring researches on how to develop the safety management system and improve the safety management efficiency under the new situation of China civil aviation industry. The main researches are as following:1. Both promotional and constraint functions to the development of civil aviation acted by aviation safety management is studied. From the view of aviation safety management in a large time-space scale, the inherent laws of civil aviation development with the national economic development and civil aviation safety with civil aviation development as well as the correlations between them were analyzied. Models and mechanisms for safety pressure formation and transmission are studied.2. The theory of safety management effiency in civil aviation industry is explored, including the meaning, transmission mechanisms and measure indices of safety management effiency of civil aviation, in order to correctly understand and quantitatively assess the safety management efficiency of civil aviation.3. The institutional foundation to improve safety management efficiency of civil aviation is studied. The basic attributes and functions of safety management system of civil aviation industry is analyzed, and the functional model of industrial safety management system ROSE is designed. Based on ROSE model, functions of governments and enterprises in safety management, 3 core subsystems and 4 environmental elements, dialectic relationships among the core subsystems and between the core subsystems and environmental elements are presented.4. The information foundation to improve safety management efficiency of civil aviation is studied. Focusing on risk assessment, the core of systematic safety management in civil air transportation industry, the attributes and changing patterns of risk in air transportation are explored, the theory of“two categories of risk”are put forward and a practical risk assessment system is designed based on the incomplete safety information. From the view of international safety information sharing, the comprehensive comparison of different laws and regulations, taxonomies and database structures of aviation safety information adopted by ICAO, the EU and China are given, and the prototype of aviation safety information sharing between the CAAC system and the ECCAIRS system used in the EU and in ICAO is developed, which implements a bi-directional exchange of information between the two systems. The mechanism of international safety information sharing is also studied.5. The key technical support to improve safety management efficiency of civil aviation is studied. At the enterprises level, it is one of the most important things to assure aviation safety. Using of the scientific tool can decrease the crew error and control the risk of flight operation. Flight Operation Quality Assuranse technology, management and their limitions are discussed, and a method of risk assessment of flight operations based on BP Neural Network is given.6. The development strategy of industrial safety management system is studied. Guilded by self-organization theory, the pratical experiences of the construction and development of industrial safety management system of international and China civil aviation are analyied. To keep the improvement of safety management efficiency as the central task, the development of industrial safety management system of China civil aviation is explored. The strategic meaning, main principles, implement strategy and key tasks are studied in order to explore the comprehensive and persistent approach to improve the industrial safety management effiency of China civil aviation.更多还原