【作者】 王世锦；

【导师】 朱金福；

【作者基本信息】 南京航空航天大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 所谓空域分类关键技术就是以定性或定量的形式需要解决的空域分类过程中涉及的重点和难点问题,它是空域分类改革的核心技术,更是论文研究的主题。以该主题为核心,论文的研究范畴可划分为五大部分:空域分类方案及关键技术分析、空中交通流量的长期预测、空域保障系统的综合评估、空域分类安全性分析以及空域分类关键技术应用。第一部分是基础,第二、三、四部分是核心,第五部分是二、三、四部分研究的实例应用,这五部分构成一个彼此联系、完整统一的研究框架。空域、空域分类及相关概念如何理解?国际民航组织(ICAO)空域分类标准及航空发达国家的空域分类方案如何?空域分类需要考虑哪些关键要素?进而涉及的关键技术有哪些?论文第一部分回答了这些问题,从而明确了研究重点,阐明了空域分类方案改革中必然要面对空中交通流量预测、空域保障系统综合评估以及空域安全性分析三个关键技术。鉴于目前国内外对空中交通流量长期预测研究的不足,论文第二部分以全国飞机起降架次为例,根据1985年至2008年的历史数据,采用目前常用的时间序列、回归预测以及神经网络三种预测方法对中国民航空中交通量进行了适应性的比较分析;根据我国民航交通量数据少、增长速度快且不均衡的特点,基于GM(1,1)模型和最小二乘法原理,首次提出了我国空中交通量灰色组合长期预测方法;同时预测结果经过对比分析表明,灰组合预测模型在上述各种预测模型中预测精度最高,效果最好,应是现阶段我国空中交通量长期预测的首选模型。通过分析通信、导航及监视等空域保障系统基本特点,根据ICAO相关标准及中国民用航空局的设备技术要求,论文第三部分分别建立了各种空域保障系统的性能评价指标体系,提出了空域保障系统性能模糊综合评价方法,并以雷达监视系统综合评价为例证实了该方法的可行性,给出了空域保障系统综合评估流程。空域分类安全性研究关注了空域分类改革过程将涉及的安全问题:①空域分类方案的安全性分析;②低空空域飞行安全分析;③机场空域飞行安全分析;④空域分类人因安全分析。这4个方面构成了论文的第四部分内容。空域分类方案是空域分类改革的前提条件。论文采用系统工程中“5M”模型,以空域分类方案安全性作为评价目标,从系统层面清理空域分类要素,将人、机、环、管理四个方面进行分解,分析了16个安全要素,建立了空域分类方案安全评价指标体系;基于D-S证据理论建立了空域分类方案安全性评价模型,对德尔斐专家调查法获取的数据进行处理。通过算例分析表明,评价指标体系与评价模型均实用且可行。为了确定低空空域开放后该空域内航空器的飞行安全,基于国际民航组织标准和我国民航局规定,根据航空器动力学原理,论文采用看见避让(See and Avoid)原则,在飞行规则、能见度要求、反应时间、航空器速度以及盘旋坡度角或航空器爬升角度等约束条件下,建立了同高度对头飞行冲突和交叉飞行冲突的冲突避让轨迹数学模型。通过数值分析,结果表明低空空域航空器同高度对头相遇的安全避让需满足一定的飞行条件,而同高度交叉相遇飞行的航空器应该能安全解脱冲突。机场空域安全性分析是目前国内外研究的空白。论文基于航班流服从泊松分布,根据航空器具有最小安全间隔要求,则机头时距服从移位负指数分布的特点,采用事件模型,对机场空域航空器的纵向飞行冲突风险分析进行了建模,给出了机场空域纵向飞行冲突定量分析方法。空域分类人因安全分析研究了不同空域类型的管制员与飞行员的可靠性。针对管制员安全评估问题,论文首次将认知可靠性与失误分析(CREAM)方法应用于空中交通管制员人因可靠性定量分析,并基于灰色系统理论,将改进的三角白化权函数用于确定共同行为条件(CPC)各因子的水平等级,以减少主观性影响。对于非管制的低空空域,飞行员是空域安全的主体。论文根据人的认知可靠性(HCR)理论建立了飞行员反应失效概率模型,通过数值分析给出了不同飞行条件下的飞行员反应失效概率。论文第五部分对空域分类的关键技术进行了应用研究。通过分析我国目前采用的空域分类方案的缺陷,根据我国国情以及借鉴航空发达国家空域分类经验,构建了我国空域分类初步方案框架,给出了各类空域划设标准。在提出空域分类方案的划设流程基础上,分别将空域分类关键技术--空中交通流量的长期预测、保障系统综合评估以及安全性分析具体应用于空域划设的过程中,并同时解决了该过程所涉及的空域结构确定等空域划设中的具体问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 The so-called key technologies of airspace classification are the mathematic analysis models which solve related important problems and difficult problems by qualitative and quantitative methods. These are the key technologies of airspace classification reform; more importantly, they are the theme of the paper. Taking the theme as the core, the research categories of the paper can be classified into five parts: airspace classification projects and analysis of key technologies, the long-term forecast of air traffic flow, the comprehensive evaluation of air traffic support system, the security analysis of airspace classification and the key technologies of air space classification. The first part is foundation, the later three parts are the core and the last part is the application of the later three parts. The above five parts consists a mutually related and integrated research frame. What is the comprehension of airspace, airspace classification and relation concepts? What arethe standards of ICAO airspace classification and the airspace classification projects of developed-aviation countries? What are the key factors in the consideration of airspace classification and the involved key technologies? The first part answers these questions, and then research focuses are specified, followed by the illustration of three key technologies: the long-term forecast of air traffic flow, the comprehensive evaluation of air traffic support system, the security analysis of airspace classification which will be confronted in the reform of the air space classification project.In view of the shortcomings in the present research on the long-term forecast of air traffic flow home and abroad, the second part of the paper takes the 1985-2008 data of national-wide airplane sortie as the example and makes an adaptable contrastive analysis on the Chinese air traffic flow by means of three frequently used forecast methods: time series forecast, regression forecast and neural-network forecast. According to the characteristics of our civil aviation which is lack of air traffic flow data and in rapid and uneven increase, the paper first puts forward the a gray combination forecast model for the national-wide air traffic flow on the base of the GM (1,1) model and the least squares principle. Meanwhile, by contrastive analysis, the result of forecast shows that the gray combination forecast model is of the highest forecast precision and of the best effect, which should be the first choice in our country’s long-term forecast models of air traffic flow at present.By the analysis of the basic characteristics of air space support system such as communication, navigation and surveillance, based ICAO related standards and equipment technology requirement of Chinese civil aviation bureau, the third part sets up the capability evaluation index system of various air space support systems, puts forward the vague comprehensive evaluation method of airspace support system capability, verifies the feasibility of the method by the case of the comprehensive evaluation of radar surveillance system and presents the comprehensive evaluation flow of air space support system.The security researches of airspace classification focus on safety problem which will be faced in the process of airspace classification reform:①security analysis of airspace classification reform;②flight security analysis in lower airspace;③flight security analysis on airport airspace;④human factor safety analysis of airspace classification, and all of which buildup the forth part of paper.Airspace classification project is the precondition of air space classification reform. The paper adopts the“5M”model of systems engineering, sets the security of air space classification project as the mission, refines four aspects of the air space classification factors which are man, machine, media and management into 16 security factors and sets up the security evaluation index system of air space classification project. Based on D-S proof theory, the paper also sets up the security evaluation model of air space classification project and deals with the data achieved by the method of Delfa expert investigation. The case analysis denotes both the evaluation index system and the evaluation model are practical and feasible.In order to determine the aircraft flight safety after the opening of low altitude airspace, based on the ICAO standards, CAAC regulations, and aerodynamic principles, following See and Avoid principle, under the binding conditions of flight rules, visibility requirements, responding time, the speed of aircraft, banking angle of circling and climbing angle, a mathematic collision avoidance model of converging traffic and intersecting traffic at the same level was established. The data analyses illustrate that there need be meet certain flight condition to avoid safely between the two head-to-head converging aircraft at the same level, while cross-converging aircraft at the same level can safely avoid the collisions.The security analysis of airport airspace is blank in nowadays’research home and abroad. Since aircraft flow obeys the Poisson distribution, time-distance between aircraft heads obeys the shifted negative exponential distribution according to the requirement of the minimum safety distance between aircrafts, the paper builds the portrait aviation conflict risk model of airport air space aircrafts by the adoption of case model which presents the quantitative analysis method of airport air space portrait aviation conflict risk.Air traffic controller and pilot reliabilities are researched in the part of human factors safety analysis of airspace classification. The security of airspace aviation lies mainly in the reliability of air traffic controller. According to the security evaluation issue of air traffic controller, the CREAM method is first applied to quantificationally analyze air traffic controller in this paper. Improved triangle whitenization weight function based on grey system theory is adopted to confirm level grade of each CPC gene and thus the subjective effect is reduced. Pilot is the main body of airspace safety in uncontrolled low airspace. Based on the human cognitive reliability (HCR) theory, the responding failure probability model of pilots was also established, and pilot’s responding failure probability is arrived after data analysis.The application of airspace classification key technologies is researched in fifth part. Through the analysis on the weakness of Chinese present airspace classification project, according to Chinese situation and successful experience of developed-aviation countries’airspace classification, the primary project frame of our nation’s airspace classification is present and division standards of various airspaces is clarified. On the basis of the division flow of airspace classification project, the key airspace classification technologies which are the long-term forecast of air traffic flow, the comprehensive evaluation of air support system, the security analysis of airspace classification, are applied respectively to the airspace division process, along with the solution of the specific problems in the airspace division such as the clarify of airspace structure involved in the process.更多还原