【作者】 吴旭晓；

【导师】 许正中；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 2001年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨(Joseph E. Stiglitz)曾经说过,“21世纪影响人类进程的两件大事,一件是美国的高科技,一件是中国的城市化。中国的城市化将是区域经济发展的火车头,并产生最重要的经济效益。”在我国的城市化过程中,中心城市的作用日益凸显。中心城市发展问题已经成为探讨的热点和重点。近年来,国内外的众多专家学者对中心城市的发展进行了大量的有益探讨,取得了一定的研究成果。但大多是采用定性分析和简单的定量分析方法,并不能很好地体现中心城市内涵式发展的本质。本文认为,中心城市内涵式发展问题是一个由经济、科技、社会和环境等多方面因素组成的多层次、多目标、动态开放的复杂系统,具有很强的自组织、超循环和灰色特性等非线性特征。因此,将运用系统发展素质理论、灰色系统和分形理论等系统分析理论方法对其进行研究探讨。全文共包括七章。第一章,主要分析了区域中心城市内涵式发展产生的背景、提出了内涵式发展这一概念的定义及内涵特征,并给出了本文的研究框架及主要内容。第二章综述了国内外关于城市发展系统的研究理论和中心城市发展的基本研究现状及所存在的主要问题。第三章,运用复杂系统分析的基本原理,对中心城市发展问题进行了比较全面的系统分析。具体包括:中心城市内涵式发展系统的基本组成要素及相互作用和基本特征分析;在此基础上,通过对中心城市内涵式发展影响因素的研究,提出了我国区域中心城市内涵式发展评价指标体系的构建原则和筛选流程;并在总结国内外研究成果的基础上,构建了中心城市内涵式发展系统评价指标体系。第四章构建了中心城市内涵式发展定量化研究模型。首先通过构建内涵式发展质量方程方法对系统现阶段的发展状况进行定量化分析评价;其次,利用灰色综合关联分析模型、灰色多维系统动态模型等方法建立中心城市内涵式发展系统的协同发展模型,对系统的耦合协同性进行了定量研究;最后,构建了分形理论模型对各子系统的未来发展趋势进行分析,运用灰色线性回归组合模型对系统的发展趋势进行前瞻,考察中心城市内涵式发展系统的可持续发展能力。第五章,利用文中所提出的理论方法对上海内涵式发展问题进行了实证研究。第六章,在总结实证结果的基础上,提出了提升区域中心城市内涵式发展能力的对策与建议。第七章,全文的总结与展望,指出进一步研究的方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 Joseph E. Stiglitz,the Nobel Laureate in Economics in 2001, once said, "the human process of the 21st century has two major events, one is the high-tech of United States, the other is China’s urbanization. China’s urbanization will be the locomotive of regional economic development and generate the most important economic benefits. " The role of central cities has become increasingly prominent in urbanization. The issues of central cities development has become a hot spot and of focus. In recent years, many experts and researchers have made a lot of study on the development of central cities at home and abroad. Although it has got some achievements, the research almost used the qualitative analysis and simply quantitative analysis so that it cannot reflects the essence of the intensive development of central cities. The Intensive development of central cities is a multi-objective, multi-level, dynamic, and open complex system made up by many factors such as economy, technology, society and environment,with nonlinear characteristics such as a strong self-organized, super-cycle and gray. In this matter, the paper uses some theory and method of system analysis such as the developmental quality analysis, the grey system theory and fractal analysis to do scientific study. There are seven chapters in this paper:The first chapter analyzes the the background of the regional central city intensive development, proposed the definition and features of intensive development, and the research framework and main content are given. The second chapter reviews the recent research on urban development system theory and center cities development ,and the main problems are discussed. The third chapter uses complex systems to comprehensive analysize the development of center cities,including the basic elements and the basic characteristics of the central city, and their interaction; On this basis, the building discipline, the process and model of the evaluation index system of the intensive development of regional center cities are put forward by the study of the impact factors of central city development;and then the intensive development evaluation index system of central city are put forward on the basis of research results at home and abroad. The fourth chapter construct quantitative research model of the central city intensive development. First, the equation method of system development quality are built to the system at this stage of the development of quantitative analysis and evaluation. Secondly, the gray comprehensive association analysis model and multi-dimensional dynamic model are used to study the coupling joint development of the center city intensive development system. Finally, the fractal model is used to analyze the future development trends of the various subsystems, and the gray-linear regression model is used to study sustainable development of the center city intensive development system. In the fifth chapter, the empirical study of Shanghai intensive development is posed by the theoretical method in this paper. In the sixth chapte, based on summing up empirical results,the countermeasures and suggestions to enhance the regional central city intensive development capacity are proposed. In the seventh chapter, the main conclusion and outlook are summarized and the future research direction is pointed out.更多还原