【作者】 刘波；

【导师】 冯中朝；

【作者基本信息】 华中农业大学 ， 农业贸易与农村金融管理， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 从经济学产生以来,资源的效率问题始终是经济学的核心命题。而作为资本重要来源的贷款,其也是一种资源,但与一般意义上的资源不同的是,它是一种金融资源,其从产生到使用是一个综合过程,即劳动、资本、土地等生产要素被银行使用后产出贷款,然后贷款被配置到各产业各地区,并相应促进经济发展的整体过程。因此,它在各个环节都有相应的效率,其效率的高低不仅决定着贷款投放量的多少,还直接影响着一国的经济发展。上世纪80年代中期以来,中国加快了金融体制改革的步伐,有效增加了信贷的投放量,推动了中国经济的快速增长。但同时我们也发现,作为以信用经济为主的发展中国家,中国一方面面临着资源短缺、贷款供求缺口较大等矛盾和问题,另一方面贷款对经济发展的作用有限,乘数效应没有发挥效果。特别是当前,以美国次贷危机为导火索的金融危机席卷全球,世界各国都试图通过信贷等资金的投放促进本国的经济发展,我国也不例外,这必然会对贷款的数量和功效提出更高的要求。因此,系统地研究中国贷款效率问题,探寻贷款在各个环节的效率情况及提升途径,对金融资源和中国经济共同持续、健康发展具有十分重要的意义。论文在对相关理论及中国贷款现状进行述评和考察的基础上,从贷款产生到使用的各个环节入手,采用实证分析与规范分析相结合的方法,综合运用金融学、经济学、发展经济学、技术经济学等多学科的知识和原理,基于微观、宏观、中观等完整视角出发,将贷款在银行系统的产出效率、对经济发展的功能效率和在各产业各地区的配置效率统一纳入本文的研究体系和框架中,对中国贷款效率的现实状况及其影响因素进行了全面系统地研究,并提出了提高中国贷款效率的对策建议。全文共分为7章,主要内容与结论如下：第1章是论文的导论部分。本章首先从中国经济发展的现实角度提出了研究的问题,并结合提出的问题,阐述了论文研究的重要意义；然后,是论文的文献综述部分,即对国内外相关领域的研究进行了总结和简要评价；此外,本章还详细介绍了论文的研究思路、内容结论、技术线路和研究方法；最后,对论文进行了总结性地评价,阐述了论文可能的创新之处和存在的不足之处。本章是全文的一个鸟瞰。第2章是论文的理论基础和基本概念的界定。首先,本章阐述和评价了从古典学派到现代经济学派中有关效率的相关描述；然后从金融发展理论入手,对有关金融效率的相关理论进行了梳理和述评；在此基础上,对贷款效率的含义和论文的研究范畴进行了界定。本章是论文的理论支撑和研究的起点。第3章对中国贷款的现实状况进行了详细阐述,提供了一个关于中国贷款方面的总体印象,是全文的现实基础。本章首先从存量和增量角度对贷款的总体规模进行了分析；然后从贷款的期限、市场份额、地区流向及行业分布四个方面探讨了贷款的结构现状；最后,对中国贷款的质量进行了客观描述。研究发现,伴随着中国经济的增长,中国贷款余额和新增贷款数量均呈上升趋势；其中,各行业、各地区及不同期限结构的贷款都呈明显的增长趋势,但它们增长的速度有所不同,呈现出不同的结构特征；同时,中国贷款质量得到了明显的提升,不良贷款率和不良贷款额实现了“双降”,且不良贷款的结构也出现了明显的改善。第4章基于银行视角对中国贷款的产出效率进行了详细地考察,提供了一个关于中国贷款效率的微观印象。首先,在对贷款增长源泉分析的基础上,本章采用DEA方法中的SMB模型对中国银行业贷款产出的技术效率进行了测度,探讨了其时序演变模式和银行主体特征；其次,应用Tobit回归模型实证分析了影响银行贷款技术效率的因素；然后,借助DEA非参数分析框架中的Malmquist生产率指数,在时间层面和银行层面上对贷款的全要素生产率(TFP)进行了估计与分解,并采用经济收敛模型对各银行贷款的全要素生产率的趋同性进行了检验。研究显示：1996年以来,中国贷款产出的技术效率普遍不高,呈波动上升趋势,其中,规模效率的变动是影响技术效率变动的主因,且各银行之间的贷款技术效率差距较大；银行的吸储能力、贷款质量、产权结构、国家的宏观经济形势和货币政策都会对银行贷款的技术效率产生影响；样本期间,中国贷款的TFP增长幅度不大,技术效率改善是TFP增长的源泉,技术进步的“增长效应”没有显现；尽管各银行贷款的TFP差距较大,但它们同时存在6收敛和β收敛,即各银行贷款的TFP差距会逐渐缩小,并最终稳定在同一水平上。第5章基于贷款与经济发展的视角对中国贷款功能效率进行了详细分析,提供了一个关于中国贷款效率的宏观印象。本章首先基于CC-LM模型分析了贷款对经济增长的作用机理；然后,采用时间序列分析方法测算了1985年以来贷款对中国经济增长的总体功能效率及动态冲击,最后,论文基于贷款的期限结构和产业结构分别考察了短期贷款与中长期贷款、三大产业贷款对经济增长的功能效率及动态冲击。研究结果表明：从总体上看,中国信贷与经济增长存在着长期稳定的相互作用,但GDP对贷款的吸引力度远大于贷款对GDP的拉动作用,贷款的功能效率较低；从贷款的期限结构看,中国的短期贷款、中长期贷款都会促进GDP的增长,其中,短期贷款的效率更高,贡献更大,但长期贷款的贡献率呈递增趋势；从贷款的产业流向看,第三产业贷款功能效率最高,第一产业贷款效率最低且为负,而第二产业贷款对经济增长的贡献率呈递增趋势。第6章从中观层面上考察了中国贷款在产业间和地区间的配置效率。在探讨贷款优化配置对经济增长作用的基础上,本章基于变系数模型和合并模型,应用Jeffrey Wurgler方程,分别对贷款在产业间、地区间和31个省(直辖市、自治区)内各产业间的配置效率进行了评价；接着,本章采用GMM估计从金融制度环境变迁、货币政策变化、市场化进程和金融结构变化四个方面探讨了影响中国贷款配置效率的因素。实证结果表明：贷款对价值创造能力高的产业表现出了较高的敏感性,对三大地区的经济增长也表现出了较高敏感性,但省际间效率差别较大,且缺乏规律性；31个省(市、区)内各产业产值的增长并没有对贷款形成有效吸引,贷款总体配置效率较低,这意味着中国经济增长仍然是以贷款投入数量推动的外延式、粗放型的增长。实证分析还表明,市场化与金融制度的自由化会促进中国贷款配置效率的提高,而紧缩性的货币政策会降低贷款的配置效率,此外,政府对银行产权和信贷的适度控制有利于改善贷款的配置效率。第7章是论文的基本结论和政策建议。本章在对前几章的分析结论进行归纳性总结的基础上,从银行的技术进步与规模控制、中国的市场化进程、金融制度改革、信贷调控、银行监管和农业的发展等方面提出了提升中国贷款效率的有针对性的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Efficiency of resource has always been the core proposition since the economics was generated. Different from the general resources, loans is a financial resource which has an integrated process from generation to use, that is, labors, capital, land and other production factors are used by banks to produce loans, and then loans are allocated to various regions to promote economic development. Therefore, all process links the corresponding efficiency which not only determines the amount of loans, but also directly impact on a country’s economic development. Since the middle of 80s of the last century, the amount of loans has been effectively increased because of reform of the financial system, which promotes rapid economic growth in China. But it is a fact that as a developing country based on credit economy, China faces the problem of resources shortage and the big gap of loans demand and supply, while, loans play a limited role in Chinese economic development so that its multiplier effect is not fully effective. In particular, the financial crisis fused U.S. subprime mortgage crisis sweeps the globe.Countries in the world are trying to loan to promote economic development. The same as China. It puts forward the higher demands to loan amount and loan efficiency.Therefore, the paper systematically studies the efficiency of China’s loans, and explores all aspects of loan efficiency as well as the ways to enhance them, which is of great significance to sustained and healthy development of Chinese economy and financial resources.Based on expounding the theory and analyzing the present situation of loans in China? the paper linking with process from generation to use of loans, combines the empirical analysis, normative analysis and the principles such as finance, microeconomics, macroeconomics, development economics, technical economics and so on, to analyze the loan efficiency in China. From the complete perspective of micro, macro, meso, the paper making output efficiency, function efficiency and allocation efficiency of loans into a unified study system, systematically studies the efficiency of china’s loans and its impact factors, and proposes some countermeasures to improve loan efficiency. This paper consists of seven chapters, the main contents and conclusions are as follows.The first chapter is the introduction. This chapter begins with issues based on the reality of China’s economic development and research significance. Secondly, it is the literature review which not only summarizes the relevant domestic and foreign research, but also conducts a brief evaluation. Thirdly, it details research ideas, structural framework, technical route, research methods of the dissertation. Finally, it summarizes review of this dissertation, including possible innovations and shortcomings in the dissertation. This chapter is a bird view of the whole dissertation.The second chapter is the theoretical basis of the paper and definition of important concepts. First, the chapter describes and evaluates efficiency theory from the classical school to the modern economics school. And then, starting from the theory of financial development, it reviews the relevant theory to financial efficiency. After that, it defines loan efficiency and scope of the study. This chapter is a theoretical support and research start of the whole dissertation.The third chapter describes status of loans in China in detail, which provides China’s overall impressions on loans. The chapter is a reality-base for the entire research. First of all, it analyzes scale of loans from the perspective of stock and increment. After that, it discuss the loan structure from four aspects that is loan period, market share, regional and industry distribution. At last, this chapter goes objective description about China’s loan quality. Through study, this chapter founds that along with economic growth in China, the number of China’s loans and new loans shows growth trends, the same as the loans in various sectors, regions and loan period which display different growth rate. So it shows different structural characteristics to China’s loans. At the same time, non-performing loan ratio and non-performing loans achieving double down, and the structure of non-performing loans showing clear improvement, China’s loan quality has been significantly improved.The forth chapter provides a micro impression on China’s loan efficiency, that is, to investigate output efficiency of bank loans in china. First of all, based on analysis of sources of loan growth, this chapter uses SMB model of DEA approach to estimate the technical efficiency of loan output, discussing its mode of temporal evolution and features of various banks. And then, Adopting tobit regression model, the chapter makes a positive analysis of influence factors on loan technical efficiency. After that, it applies malmquist productivity index to measure and decompose the loan’s Total Factor Productivity of China banking in time and bank level through the non-parameter analysis framework of DEA, and examines the convergence of loan’s TFP based on economic convergence model. This chapter founds that technical efficiency of China’s loans output fluctuates upward since 1996, which is mainly caused by change of scale efficiency. And there is a big gap of technical efficiency among banks. Loan technical efficiency is not only related to ability of collecting deposits, loan quality, ownership structure of banks, but also affected by the country’s macroeconomic situation and monetary policy. The chapter also believes that TFP growth rate of China’s loans is not high, and its driven source is technical efficiency improvements, without growth effect of technological progress. Despite the big TFP gap among banks, they appearσconvergence andβconvergence, namely, the gap will be narrowed and TFP will eventually stabilize at the same level.The fifth chapter probes into function efficiency of China’s loans based on the relationships between economic development and loans, providing a China’s macro impression of loan efficiency. Based on CC-LM mode, the chapter analyzes the mechanism of loans pushing economic growth. And then, using time series analysis method, the chapter calculates the overall function efficiency and dynamic impact of loans to economic growth. Finally, it estimates function efficiency of short-run loans, long-run loans based on period structures as well as function efficiency of loans in three major industries based on industrial structure. The conclusion of this chapter is that there is stable interaction between loans and economic growth in long-run in China, but attraction of GDP to loans is much larger than pulling of loans to GDP, that is, function of loans is less efficient. From the perspective of term structure, short-term loans and long-term loans can both promote the growth of GDP, however, the short-run loans is more efficient and contributable, and the contribution of long-term loans increases progressively. From industry perspective of loans, The tertiary industry loans is the most efficient, and the first industries loans is the least efficient and negative, while contribution rate of the second industry loan to economic showing an increasing trend.The sixth chapter examines allocation efficiency of china’s loans among industries and regions in mesoscopic view. Based on discussing the role of loan allocation to economic growth, the chapter evaluates allocation efficiency of loans among industries, the regions and industries of 31 provinces in China applying variable coefficient model, combined model and the Jeffrey Wurgler’s equation. After that, using the GMM estimates, the chapter seeks after its influencing factors from four aspects, including changes in the financial system environment, monetary policy changes, the process of market and changes in financial structure. The study founds that loan shows high sensitivity to industry with high ability to create value as well as to areas with high economic growth, however, inter-provincial differences in allocation efficiency is large and lack of regularity. The growth of industrial output value of 31 provinces has not been effective in attracting loans, and the whole allocation efficiency of loans is low, which means that China’s economic growth is driven by the number of loans and belong to type of extensive growth. Empirical analysis also shows that market-oriented and Liberalization of financial system promote credit allocation efficiency in China, while tight monetary policy plays the opposite role. In addition, the proper control of government on bank property and credit can improve allocation efficiency of loans.The seventh chapter draws basic conclusions and policy recommendations. This chapter summarizes the findings of previous chapters and proposes the targeted policy recommendations from the following aspect, such as technological progress and scale control of banks, the process of China’s market, reform of financial system, credit control, banking supervision, agricultural development and so on.更多还原