【作者】 杨红强；

【导师】 聂影；

【作者基本信息】 南京林业大学 ， 林业经济管理， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 国民经济的健康稳定发展依赖于重要的战略性物资的资源安全保障。中国作为木材生产、消费及贸易大国,木材资源的安全保障水平严重影响着整体林业产业的可持续发展。本研究系统归纳了资源经济学理论、产业安全理论、生态安全理论及贸易安全理论,建立了资源经济学框架下的资源安全评价理论体系,对于系统诠释资源安全与经济增长的内生性问题以及资源利用的生态外部性问题具有一定的理论意义。本研究针对木材资源安全导致的产业安全问题、资源利用的生态安全问题、资源获取的贸易安全问题,构建了科学合理的“资源-产业-生态-贸易”综合评价模式——RIET (Resource-Industry-Ecology-Trade),运用定性及定量相结合的方法研究了中国木材资源安全存在的问题。(1)自然禀赋条件下的资源安全状况表明,中国天然林及人工林的投入增加动态上促进了森林面积、森林覆盖率及森林净增面积稳步提高,但存在的问题是整体国民经济的快速发展对木材资源的刚性需求依然远远大于国内资源的增长水平。同时,由于森林质量的缺陷及资源结构的不合理,经济发展对于木材资源的需求则远远不能依靠国内供给来满足,资源安全状况堪忧。(2)资源供给是林业产业发展的基础,基于资源短缺导致的中国木材产业安全状况表明,现有的加工贸易发展模式严重受制于资源禀赋水平,木材加工、家具、造纸等主导产业由于资源短缺均存在不同程度的安全隐患。中国木材产业的比较优势水平正在逐步降低,依赖国际市场的产业发展形成了资源密集及劳动力密集的中低层次水平,资源紧张造成的产业安全问题对调整产业布局及产业结构提出迫切要求。(3)木材资源由于国内供给能力有限,进口国际资源则成为重要的补给手段。但加工贸易大量需要的资源进口面临着“中国是世界森林破坏的源头”的国际舆论压力。中国对国际木材资源利用的生态安全研究表明,就全球范围看,中国从洲际问进口木材资源的影响导致的森林生态足迹都未超过森林生态承载力,中国并没有全面严重威胁到世界森林资源的生态安全。就具体进口国来看,中国对俄罗斯、巴布亚新几内亚、加蓬和新西兰的原木资源进口影响生态安全的评价指数均处于安全等级内。但中国对马来西亚的木材进口一定程度上增加了其森林资源的生态压力,从负责任地利用国际资源的角度来看,中国木材资源生态安全值得予以重视。(4)进口资源的贸易安全问题,2009年中国成为世界最大的林产品出口国及木材资源进口国,“大进大出”的贸易格局本身就存在严重的贸易安全问题。林产品出口贸易安全风险不断加大,表现在产品单一性问题严重、出口比较优势地位弱化、产业工人福利损失加大及出口市场集中度过高等方面,出口产品遭遇贸易摩擦常态化及风险规避困难等诸多因素进一步增加了中国林产品出口的贸易安全风险。资源进口方面,对重要进口国的资源依赖及对重要品种的进口偏好问题日趋严重,结合国际环境保护及重要国家对战略资源的出口限制,木材资源的国际获取能力严重下降,资源进口的贸易安全问题更加突出。本研究结合中国木材资源短缺衍生的上述安全问题,对后续研究中产业结构的调整、产业布局的优化、加工贸易发展模式的转型及资源利用中节材代木战略的推进等问题提出了研究建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Healthy and stable development of national economy depends on the important strategic material resources security. As a big country of timber production, consumption and trade, china’s level of timber resources security have seriously affected the overall level of the sustainable development of forestry industry.The study systematically summarizes the theory of resource economics, industy security, ecological security and trade security, establishes theoretical system for evaluation of resource security under the framework of resources economics. The system has some theoretical significance to systematically explain the problem of endophytism of resource security, economic growth. It explains the problems of ecological externalities due to resource use.The study builds a comprehensive assessment model with reasonable system named RIET-"Resource-Industry-Ecology-Trade" to solve the industry security issues caused by timber resources security, the ecological security issuess caused by resource use, the trade security issuess caused by resource acquisition.It analyses China’s timber resources security by a combination of qualitative and quantitative method.I.The situation of resource security under the resource endowment condition showed that the dynamics of Chinese investment in natural forests and plantations promoted the steady increment of the forest area, forest cover and net increase of forest area.But the problem is that the rigid demand of timber resources due to the rapid development of the overall national economy is far greater than the growth of domestic resources.Simultaneously,the demand for timber resources is far from acquiring from domestic supply because of the defective quality and the unreasonable structure of forest resources.There is much to worry about resource security.II.The supply of resources is the basis for the development of forestry industry.The security situation of China’s timber industry caused by the resource shortages shows that the long-established development pattern of processing trade is severely constrained by the level of resource endowment. Because of the shortage of resources,Wood processing, furniture, paper and other leading industries are in security risks of varying degrees.The level of comparative advantage of China’s timber industry is gradually reducing.Industries depend on the international markets for its development formed low-level patterns which are resource-intensive and labor-intensive.There’s much to consider about the security of the industries that is been resource constrainted,it makes an urgent request to adjust the industrial layout and industrial structure.III.As the domestic supply capacity is limited, the import of international timber resources has become an important means of supply.However,China is facing the international pressure "China is the source of forest destruction" due to the great deal import of resources requires by the processing trade.The study of ecological security of China’s use of international timber resources shows that:on the global scale,the impact of forest ecological footprint caused by China’s imports from the intercontinental timber resources does not exceed the carrying capacity of forest ecology therefore China is not a serious threat to the overall ecological safety of the world’s forest resources.And from the perspective of specific importing countries,ecological security assessment indexes of China’s timber imports of Russian,Papua New Guinea, Gabon and New Zealand are within a safe level.However,to a certain extent,China’s timber imports of Malaysia has increased its ecological pressures of forest resources.From a perspective of responsible use of international resources,China should attach importance to ecological security of timber resources.Ⅳ.The trade security issues of import resources.China became the world’s largest exporter of forest products and importer of timber resources in 2009,the pattern of import and export on a big scale has serious trade security risks.The trade security risks of the forest products export are increasing, it can find expressions in several aspects such as high product uniformity,the weakened status of comparative advantage of exports,the increasing welfare losses of industrial workers and the high market concentration of exports.The normalization of trade friction that the export products experienced and the difficulties in risk evade further increase the trade security risk of the export of China’s forest products.From the perspective of resources import,the issues that China relies on some major importing countries for its resources and the import preferences of some important species are becoming increasingly serious.Considering the international environmental protection and major country’s restrictions on exports of strategic resources,the ability to obtain international resources is declining seriously.The trade security issues of import resources become more prominent.The study on the security issues derived from the shortage of wood resources in China gives proposals on follow-up research such as the adjustment of industrial structure, the optimization of the industrial layout, the development model transformation of the processing trade and the promotion in wood replacement in resource utilization strategies.更多还原