【作者】 徐翠萍；

【导师】 史清华； Holly H.Wang；

【作者基本信息】 上海交通大学 ， 农业经济理， 2010， 博士

【副题名】基于税费改革背景下的实证

【摘要】 如何提高农民生产效率以促进农民增收,是一个备受学术界和政府部门关注的重要课题。为此,中央政府陆续出台多项以减轻农民负担、增加农民收入为目标的“惠农”政策。农村税费改革(本文特指自1998年开始局部试点到2005年底全面取消“农业税”的一系列农村税费改革政策)是其中影响最大的农业政策,也是继土地改革和家庭联产承包责任制之后农村经济中的又一次伟大变革。在这现实背景下,税费改革的成效如何,对农户的收入增长和行为决策影响如何,是否有利于农业生产效率的提高等,都是一系列值得研究的实证问题。为回答上述问题,本文运用现代经济学理论,基于政策形成理论建立政策效果评价模型,以分析税费改革政策对农户收入和生产决策的影响。同时,运用效率理论和效率分析方法,建立效率测度模型,评估政策实施对农户生产效率的影响。具体来说,本研究包括四个部分:第一部分主要考察税费负担与区域、家庭经营类型、非农化程度、文化类型和社会地位等农户表观变量之间的关系(第3章)。利用取自山西、浙江与山东的超过1万条固定观察点研究资料,运用描述性统计方法进行分析。研究发现:(1)税费负担具有明显区域性特征,晋浙鲁三地的税费负担及其在税费改革过程中的变化是不同的。(2)税费改革的受益者主要是涉农户。第二部分主要研究农村税费改革是否促进了农户收入增长(第4,5章)。本部分首先基于政策形成理论构建了年度个体双向固定效应模型,利用山西、浙江和山东三省28村连续11年固定观察点面板数据对税费改革与农户收入增长的关系进行了实证分析。研究发现:在控制了农户个体特征、家庭创收能力、家庭社会地位以及年度虚拟变量以消除农户收入自然增长因素后,农村税费改革对三地农户家庭收入均具有显著大于税费减免的正效应。其中,改革使山西农户家庭税前人均收入平均提高10.42%,浙江农户平均增加8.11%,山东农户家庭平均增加5.65%。然后,本部分通过构建动态效应模型研究政策效应的持续性,实证结果表明税费改革对收入的影响具有一定的持续性。另外,本部分还对山西、山东、湖北、云南及河南等地农户进行实地田野调查,以验证计量和实证分析结果。调查发现:超过50%的被调查对象认为税费改革对农户增收影响很大,超过90%的被调查对象认为税费改革对农户增收有影响。同时,超过70%的农户对中央宣布自2006年起全面取消农业税感到很高兴。田野调查的结果表明农户是理性的,他们的切身感受与行为改变是一致的。第三部分主要研究税费改革对农户生产投入的影响(第6章)。利用山西、浙江及山东三省的固定观察点数据,构建年度个体双向固定效应模型考察农户的资本投入与劳动力投入与税费改革的关系。研究发现:税费改革显著提高了农户生产投入的积极性,但农户的生产决策具有显著地域性特征,具体表现为:(1)改革后山西和山东农户对生产性资本投入显著增加,而农业生产活动的劳动力投入显著减少;浙江农户对农业的资本投入没有显著变化,而劳动投入则显著增加。(2)山西农户改革后资本的产出弹性显著增加,而劳动力的产出弹性则显著减少。山东农户土地和劳动力的产出弹性显著增加,而资本的产出弹性变化不显著。浙江农户则表现为资本和土地的产出弹性显著增加,而劳动力的产出弹性显著减少。第四部分从效率角度考察税费改革对农户的影响(第7章)。运用随机前沿生产函数的技术效率模型研究了山西和山东两个农业省份农户生产技术效率的变化(浙江因合格样本较少无法拟合随机前沿函数),结果发现:(1)山东农户的技术效率(均值为0.63)明显高于山西(均值为0.58);(2)山西技术效率的增长速度高于山东。随后,本文建立了效率的确定性模型,利用户主教育水平、家庭生产规模、社会地位、非农户程度以及年度虚拟变量等控制变量消除了技术效率的自然增长,然后利用山西、山东两省的固定观察点数据考察了税费改革对农户技术效率的影响。研究发现:税费改革政策的实施对各地的技术效率存在着正效应。由于各地的效率基础水平存在着差异,该影响也存在着差异,在欠发达地区影响更为显著。基于上述研究,本文提出了如下政策建议:首先,税费改革对农户收入增长具有显著的引致效应,这说明农业保护政策能够激励农户提高生产积极性并进而促进农户增收。因此,在取消农业税后,优化农业补贴政策、加大农业补贴力度就应成为今后制定农业政策的主要方向。这也和国外主流观点和做法是一致的。其次,农村税费负担区域性特征明显,政策对农户对生产投入的影响也存在着显著的区域性特征。因此,制定支农政策必须注重政策实施对象的非均衡性,应根据地域特色和经济发展水平制定相应的支农方案。本文的创新之处在于以经典生产理论和效率理论为指导,以中国税费改革的具体事件为背景,构建符合中国实践的计量经济学模型,利用中国大量实际农户调查数据进行实证分析,并结合田野调查,考察政策改革对中国农户收入增长、生产决策和技术效率的影响。主要表现为:(1)本文以农户作为微观经济单元,基于大规模农户调查的面板数据构建固定效应模型,从微观角度来评价农村税费政策的效应。研究发现:在控制了农户个体特征、家庭创收能力,家庭社会地位以及年度虚拟变量以消除农户收入自然增长因素后,农村税费改革对三地农户家庭收入均具有显著正效应,且其效应显著大于税费减免带来的直接收入增加,说明政策改革对农户收入的增长具有引致效应。同时,还构建动态效应模型,研究政策效应的持续性,实证结果表明税费改革对收入的影响具有一定的持续性。另外,还通过实地田野调查来验证计量分析的结果。田野调查结果显示农户的感受与现实是一致的。(2)构建基于生产函数的计量模型,研究税费改革对农户家庭生产决策行为的影响,包括生产性资本和劳动力投入的影响,并利用固定观察点的资料进行实证分析。研究发现,税费改革显著增强了农户对农业生产投入的积极性,但农户的生产决策具有显著的地域特征。这进一步说明,农户的感受与其生产行为决策是一致的,也验证了Schultz的“农户行为是理性的”假说。(3)将政策改革这一宏观经济事件和微观农户的生产效率相结合,构建随机前沿函数效率测度模型及技术效率确定性模型,用于评价农村税费改革政策对农户技术效率的影响。研究发现,税费改革政策的实施对各地的技术效率存在着正效应。但由于各地的效率基础水平存在着差异,该影响也存在着差异,在欠发达地区影响更为显著。更多还原

【Abstract】 How to improve agricultural productive efficiency and promote the farm household’s income has always been a hot-spot topic for academy and regulation in China. The current Chinese government has set the agriculture as the highest priority, and aimed to solve the "three agricultural issues in China". The central government has also implemented some policies to drive the agricultural production, among which abolishing the rural taxation in 2006 has been one of the hottest topics for the academy community. The rural taxation reform (RTR) is one of the mostly impacted events in the progress of Chinese reform in the past 30 years, and is also another important rural reform after the Chinese land reform and farm household responsibility system. However, some questions are still needed to be answered, for example, Does the RTR works as expected? How does it affect the income increment and decision behavior of the farm households? Does it benefit to improve agricultural productive efficiency?In this study, we made use of modern economics research methodologies to develop a farm household income model to evaluate the performance of RTR, which has been used to analyze how the RTR has affected the farm household’s income and productive decision. Moreover, another model to measure the technical efficiency has been proposed to assess how the productive efficiency of farm household was affected by the RTR implementation. In this study, we developed several sections to answer the above questions, respectively.First of all, in chapter 3 we discussed some variables related to the taxation burdens of farm household, including sampling site, farmer’s family category, non-agricultural ratio, education level, and social status. Making use of the data collected from the fixed observation points developed by Chinese Agricultural Department, we have analyzed more than 10 thousands records from Shanxi, Zhejiang and Shandong provinces. It was found that the taxation burden has obvious regional characters, and the changing patterns in Shanxi, Zhejiang and Shandong associated with the rural taxation reform are much different. Also, we found that it is the farm household mainly got income from the agriculture that mostly benefit from the rural taxation reform.In the second section (i.e. chapter 4 and 5), we mainly focus on determining whether the rural taxation reform has promoted the income of the farm household. Firstly, we collected a panel dataset obtained from the fixed observation points in 28 villages from Shanxi, Zhejiang and Shandong collected from 1995 to 2005. We developed a fixed effect model to determine the effect of rural taxation reform on the income of farm households. We found that the rural taxation reform has significantly promoted the income of farm household after deducing the effect of farmer’s character, farmer family agricultural investment, and farmer social status and year dummy variables. Meanwhile, it is found that the average increment effects caused by the rural taxation reform for shanxi farmer is about 10.42%, 8.11% for Zhejiang and 5.65% for Shandong. Furthermore, we employed some field surveys to validate the results obtained from the empirical study. We have surveyed the farm households in Shanxi, Shandong, Hubei, Yunan and Henan. The results found that more than 50% of surveyed farmer selected the option that the rural taxation reform has made high impacts on their income, and more than 90% agree that the rural taxation reform has worked. Moreover, more than 70% surveyed farmers felt very happy when they knew the cancellation of rural taxation. The above results indicated that the farmers were rational, and their answers were consistent with their productive action.In the section 3 (i.e. chapter 6), we focused on how the rural taxation reform has affected the farm household’s productive input. Making use of the data collected from the fixed observation points in Shanxi, Zhejiang and Shandong, we developed the dual direction fixed effect model to study how the rural taxation reform affected the farm household’s productive decision. It was found that the rural taxation reform had promoted the farmer’s passion to invest more on the agricultural production, but the decisional patterns were significantly regional. After reforming, the farmers in Shanxi and Shandong have added the input of the productive capital but reduced the labor, while the farmers in Zhejiang have significantly added labor input, but not significantly increased productive capitals. Meanwhile, the capital productive elasticity of Shanxi farmers has significantly increased after reforming, while labor elasticity has decreased; the productive elasticity of land and labor of Shandong farmers has significantly increased, but that of capital was not significantly changed; the productive elasticity of capital and land was significantly increased, but that of labor has decreased.In section 4 (i.e. chapter 7), we investigated the change of farmer’s productive efficiency with the rurual taxation reform. We made use of the stochastic frontier function to calculate the technical efficiency of two agricultural provinces, Shanxi and Shandong. Here, Zhejiang was excluded due to the few qualified samples. We found that the average technical efficiency in Shandong farmers (i.e. 0.63) were much higher than those in Shanxi (i.e. 0.58), while the increasing rate of Shanxi were higher than that of Shandong. Then, we developed an efficiency determinant model by controlling some variables including farmer’s education, social status, non-agricultural ratio, family scale and year-dummy one. Our study showed that the rural taxation reform has positive effect on the technical efficiency, and it was significantly improved in Shanxi but not in Shandong. It suggests that the improvement might be related to the original technical level, and it affected more those with low efficiency than those with relatively high level.Some policies suggestions have been proposed: Firstly, our study indicated that the rural taxation reform has significantly promoted the farm household’s income, which is consistent with most of the main-stream opinions in the economic community that the protection degree of the agriculture is positive related to the economic growth. Therefore, we proposed that the subsidy to agriculture should be optimized and enlarged for Chinese farmers. Secondly, our research has shown that the rural taxation burden is regionally specific, so does the farmer’s response toward the rural taxation reform by inputting their productive resource. Based on these, we proposed that the supportive policies to farmers should be attention to the unbalance of the different regions and their development levels.The innovation in this paper was that we have developed the economics models coupled with a large amount of data collected from the fixed observation points and field survey to investigate how the rural taxation reform has affected the farm household’s income,productive decision and technical efficiency. Specifically, it could be manifested in the following points: (1) Using the farm household as the basic observation unit, we developed the fixed effect model based on the large scale of panel data to evaluate the rural taxation reform. We proposed a Chinese farmer’s income models by controlling farmer’s input, capital, social status, and year-dummy variables to investigate whether the rural taxation reform has promoted the farm household’s income, and the results has been validated by our field surveys. (2) We proposed a model based on the production function to investigate how the rural taxation reform has affected the farmer’s production, including capital and labor input. (3) We made use of the stochastic frontier function to estimate the farm household’s technical efficiency and investigate the relationship between the rural taxation reform and the technical efficiency of farm household.更多还原