国际关键货币的条件

【作者】 涂菲；

【导师】 张宇燕；

【作者基本信息】 中国社会科学院研究生院 ， 世界经济， 2011， 博士

【副题名】以日元为例

【摘要】 国际关键货币是指在国际上执行计价结算货币、储备货币和锚货币等功能的主权货币,处于货币国际化程度较高的阶段。一种主权货币成为国际关键货币需要什么条件,这是本文讨论的中心问题。国际关键货币的需求者和供给者(发行者)有着各自的成本与收益。国际关键货币需求者包括私人部门和政府部门,前者选择计价结算货币和资产货币,后者以储备货币和锚货币为主。国际关键货币供给是垄断竞争的,其发行者需要做出是否参与竞争以及如何参与竞争等决策。本文通过对国际关键货币的需求和供给及其影响因素的分析,认为一种主权货币成长为国际关键货币,需具备如下六个条件:(1)参与国际经济的规模和程度。货币发行国在国际贸易和投资中的规模越大,程度越深,就越容易形成网络外部性和规模经济,促进对该货币的需求;(2)综合实力及其稳定性和成长性。货币发行国保持经济平稳增长和有效控制通货膨胀,国际政治和军事实力强大,能为其货币提供全方位的支持和保障,使货币需求主体有信心持有该货币;(3)金融市场的规模和活力。规模大、创新能力强的金融市场有助于货币持有者分散风险,以及购买以该货币标价的金融资产;(4)国内制度的共容性。制度共容性表现为制度障碍低,使该货币具有可得性,且有完善适度的监管保证市场有序运行;(5)货币发行国的动力。要能够克服来自内外部的政治、经济阻力,参与国际关键货币的竞争性供给并扩大其货币流通域直至临界点;(6)货币发行国的相对权力及竞争策略。拥有足够的相对权力并采取适当的策略,使得在国际关键货币垄断竞争中胜出。日元作为国际关键货币之一,其国际地位与经济实力并不匹配。日元的经验和教训从一定程度上对这些条件进行诠释。日本参与国际经济规模虽大,但并不够深;经济力量虽强,军事、政治实力却相对较弱;制度共容性不够以及金融市场存在禁锢。同时,在与美元的竞争中,日元国际化道路被动地由美国设定,加之日本国内制度挤出和认知时滞,以及竞争策略的有效性问题,这些因素都影响日元的进一步成长。更多还原

【Abstract】 International key currency (IKC) is one sovereign currency used as invoicing and settlement currency in international trade, reserve currency of other states and anchor currency for other currencies, which is internationalized in a high degree. What conditions are needed for a currency to become an IKC is the topic argued in this dissertation.The demanders and suppliers/issuers of an international currency have different costs and benefits. Demanders include private sectors and governments: the former decides which currency is used as invoicing and settlement currency, while the latter chooses the reserve and anchor currency. Issuers of IKCs face monopolistic competition. One issuer makes the decision whether to supply IKC, and how to compete against other issuers.After analyzing the demand and supply of IKC and its influencing factors, this dissertation concludes that there are six conditions for the issuer to help its currency meet the qualification of an IKC, as follows: (1) The scale and depth of economic interaction of the issuer with other countries. In international trade and investment, the bigger the size and the deeper the depth of an issuer’s market are, the easier for the issuer to obtain the network externalities and economies of scale, which will promote demand for its currency. (2) Comprehensive strength, stability and possibility of growth. Steady growth and low inflation rate of the issuer’s economy and its power in international politics and military affairs, ensure all kinds of interests derived from the currency, and also build the confidence of demanders to hold the currency. (3) The size and vigor of issuer’s financial market. The financial market with big size and much innovation helps currency holders to diversify exchange rate risks and obtain financial assets invoicing with the currency. (4) The encompassing degree of domestic institutions of issuer. The encompassing institutions require fewer obstacles for holding the currency. And comprehensive and appropriate regulations are necessary to make the market run in order. (5) Motivation of the issuer. The motivation should be strong enough to surpass the economic and politic hindrance domestic and abroad. Therefore, the issuer could be able to participate actively the competition of supplying international currencies among countries and expanding currency sphere of circulation to the verge. (6) The relative power and completion strategies. Only the issuer with enough relative power and correct strategies can prevail in monopolistic competition. The Japanese Yen has already become one of IKCs, but its position does not match Japan’s economic position in the world. There are lessons and experiences of Japanese Yen that would explain these conditions mentioned above. Japan’s economy has great scale but not enough depth in interacting with other countries, and has great economic power but weak military and political power. It also has less encompassing institutions and constrained financial markets. Furthermore, Japan passively follows a schedule that arranged by the U.S. to internationalize Yen when they were both in competition. During the period of internationalization of Yen, some of Japanese internal institutions crow out good ones along with the cognitive time lag, and its competition strategies are not efficient enough as well. All the factors would weaken Yen’s position as one of the IKCs.更多还原