【作者】 王会强；

【导师】 顾六宝；

【作者基本信息】 河北大学 ， 世界经济， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 自1990年以来,全球发生过三次大的金融危机,分别是1990年起自日本的泡沫危机,1997年起自东南亚的金融危机和2007年始自美国的次贷危机。而其中对中国经济产生重要冲击作用,尤其是对中国出口贸易产生较大冲击作用的是1997年的东南亚金融危机和此次始于美国的次贷危机。后两次金融危机,虽然在危机的发生背景、发生根源、传导路径及各国的应对政策等方面存在明显差异,但又存在诸多相似特征。本文通过对1997年亚洲金融危机和2007年美国次贷危机对我国出口贸易影响进行全方面比较,力求理清美国次贷危机和亚洲金融危机对我国出口贸易影响程度、影响范围、影响结构及传导路径等一系列问题,找出二者的异同,以说明在经济全球化、金融自由化的大背景下,我国出口贸易中存在的深层次问题及面对危机应该采取什么样的措施来最大限度趋利避害。因此,探索金融危机影响比较研究,具有重要的研究价值和现实意义。本文在回顾金融危机相关理论及金融危机对出口贸易影响机制的基础上,主要运用实证研究的方法分析比较了两次金融危机对中国出口总额及出口结构的影响,通过编制金融危机影响指数,比较了两次危机通过出口贸易对我国经济的影响程度,通过建立向量自回归模型对两次危机对中国出口贸易的影响机制进行比较。并进一步就两次金融危机对我国出口贸易影响分区域做了比较分析,在前面分析的基础上提出了应对金融危机的基本战略建议。论文的基本思路是：(1)梳理金融危机相关理论及金融危机对出口贸易影响机制,为全文的研究提供理论基础。(2)就美国次贷危机和亚洲金融危机对我国出口总额和出口贸易结构的影响进行了描述性分析,从总量及结构两方面了解两次金融危机对中国出口贸易影响的异同。(3)从实证分析层面一方面比较两次金融危机通过出口贸易对中国经济的影响程度；另一方面比较两次金融危机对中国出口贸易的影响机制。(4)进一步从区域角度比较了两次金融危机对出口贸易的影响,并且以河北省为例来研究两次金融危机对出口贸易低依存度地区影响做比较分析,以便于就金融危机对贸易相对不发达地区出口影响做比较分析。(5)在前面理论分析与实证分析、定量分析与定性分析的基础上提出了应对金融危机的基本战略建议。具体来看,全文主要研究内容和观点如下：1、系统梳理了金融危机相关理论及其对出口贸易影响机理,同时分别简单介绍了亚洲金融危机、美国次贷危机的产生背景和表现形式,以及两次国际金融危机后世界经济贸易格局的基本变化。2、评价性分析了美国次贷危机和亚洲金融危机对我国出口总额和出口贸易结构的影响。以亚洲金融危机和美国次贷危机时期的月度统计数据为基础,运用定量比较的方法,从出口总量、贸易对象、贸易主体、贸易方式、出口商品结构等角度,对亚洲金融危机与美国次贷危机给中国出口贸易造成的影响作详细的比较研究。两次金融危机对我国的出口贸易都产生了一定影响,但美国次贷危机的影响力度大于亚洲金融危机影响力度。进一步分析发现亚洲金融危机对中国出口贸易的影响主要表现在亚洲市场,主要是对国有企业、一般贸易方式及传统的劳动密集型产品的出口影响较大,而美国次贷危机则影响了中国出口贸易的各个市场,主要是对三资企业、来料加工贸易及机电、高新技术产品的出口影响较大。3、从实证分析层面比较两次金融危机通过出口贸易对中国经济的影响程度。亚洲金融危机和美国次贷危机首先影响了我国出口贸易,进而影响了我国的实体经济。通过编制金融危机影响指数,来反映金融危机对我国经济的综合变动影响情况；并且对亚洲金融危机和美国次贷危机时期的金融危机影响指数进行对比发现：美国次贷危机对中国出口贸易的冲击程度大于亚洲金融危机,但由于此次应对政策力度较大,金融体系较为健康和社会保障制度建设的发展成熟,美国次贷危机对中国实体经济的影响要小于亚洲金融危机。4、进一步从实证分析层面比较两次金融危机对中国出口贸易的影响机制。从影响出口贸易的收入、价格、汇率、外商投资等四个主要传导路径入手,在理论分析的基础上选取相关指标,通过检验找出影响我国出口贸易的主要因素并建立向量自回归模型,从定量的角度对两次金融危机的影响做进一步比较分析。我国的出口贸易和主要贸易伙伴国收入、出口商品价格指数及实际有效汇率之间存在长期均衡关系。其中亚洲金融危机时期主要贸易伙伴国的实际收入、出口商品价格、实际有效汇率对出口贸易的影响程度很大,实际利用外资额对出口贸易的影响程度不显著；美国次贷危机时期主要贸易伙伴国的实际收入和实际有效汇率对出口贸易的影响程度大,出口商品价格和实际利用外资额对出口贸易的影响程度较小。从短期看,亚洲金融危机时期我国出口增长主要取决于外商直接投资,出口商品价格及人民币实际有效汇率对出口增长也有一定作用,而美国次贷危机时期出口增长主要取决于主要贸易伙伴国收入和出口价格。5、从区域角度定量比较两次金融危机对我国出口的影响,因我国东中西部的经济发展状况、出口依赖程度不同,承受金融危机冲击的能力存在差异。从东、中、西部的出口依赖性大小来看,两次金融危机前后其出口依赖性由大到小依次都是东部、西部、中部。两次危机中都是东部的出口受金融危机影响较大。最后,选择河北省这样一个位于沿海地区但具内地经济特征省份做为研究对象,构建了金融危机对河北省出口贸易影响的计量模型,以便于就两次金融危机对贸易相对不发达地区出口影响做比较分析。6、在前面实证分析的基础上,进一步分析了后金融危机时期中国出口贸易所面临的基本格局,两次罕见的金融危机给我国出口贸易造成的影响是巨大的,留给我们的教训和启示也是深刻的。未来的全球性金融危机给中国经济特别是出口贸易提出的挑战会更大,在前面分析的基础上提出了应对金融危机的战略建议。本文采用了规范分析与实证分析相结合、定性分析与定量分析相结合及理论联系实际的研究方法。本文的主要创新点是：构建了金融危机影响指数并比较分析亚洲金融危机和美国次贷危机对我国出口贸易影响,使用向量自回归方法构建了向量自回归模型,比较分析亚洲金融危机和美国次贷危机对我国出口贸易的影响。从危机背景、表现形式、对出口贸易总额、贸易结构的影响、对出口贸易影响的传导路径及对我国出口贸易影响的区域等多个角度,全面、深入的考察了亚洲金融危机和美国次贷危机对我国出口贸易的影响异同,弥补了目前学术界对此问题的研究零散且不够深入的不足。因此,认真追踪总结重大金融危机给中国经济带来的变化和影响,并将这种变化影响进行认真比对,并在进行认真分析比较基础之上,据此提出了我们自己的应对未来的金融危机之对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since 1990 there have been three major financial crises:crisis broke out in Japan1990, the financial crisis started in Southeast Asia in 1997 and crisis started by subprime mortgage in the United States in 2007. Among these crises, the Southeast Asian financial crisis and the U. S. Subprime Mortgagee crisis have heavy impacts on China’s economy, especially on China’s export trade. Although there are obvious differences in their backgrounds, there are also many similar features in the aspect of conduction path and national policies between the first and last two crises. Based on the comprehensive comparison of the impact on China’s export trade between the Southeast Asia Financial Crisis 1997 and U.S. Subprime Mortgage Crisis 2007, this article seeks to clarify the these two crises’influences on China’s export trade in the aspects of degree, scope, structure and conduction path and so on in order to find out the differences and similarities between the two crises, illustrate deep problems of China’s export trade, and seek what measures should be taken to promote the favorable and avoid the unfavorable in export under the background of the economic globalization and financial liberalization. Using comparison methods, studying the impact of financial crisis has important research value and realistic significance.On the basis of reviewing the financial crisis related theory and the impact of financial crisis on export trade mechanism, by the method of empirical study this article analyzes and compares the impacts of the two crises on China’s total export value and export structure. By establish the influential index of financial crisis, the paper makes comparison between the two financial crises on China’s economy, and mechanism of China’s export trade by the way of VAR model. Furthermore, the paper makes a comparative analysis of export trade regions in China and puts forward strategies to cope with financial crisis by comparing the influence of two financial crises on China’s export tradeThe basic thinking of the paper is as follow:(1) Make outline of the theory related to financial crisis and the impact financial crisis has on the export mechanism to provide the theoretical basis of the full text. (2) Makedescriptive analysis of the influence that U.S. Subprime Mortgage Crisis and the Southeast Asian Financial Crisis has on China’s total export volume and export trade structure, and finding out similarities and differences of these two crises in the above aspects. (3) On one hand, from the level of empirical analysis, compare degree that the two financial crises’influence on the Chinese economy, on the other hand, comparethe two financial crises’influence on China’s export trade mechanism. (4) Compare the impact of the two financial crises on exports from a regional perspective. Taking Hebei Province as example, make comparative analysis of the two financial crises’influence on places of export lower-dependent region, so that making comparative analysis of financial crisis’s influence on the export trade in less developed regions.(5)Propose strategy based on the previous theoretical, empirical, quantitative and qualitative analysis. The main contents and views of the paper are as follows:1. Make outline of the theory related to financial crisis and the mechanism of export trade under the influence of financial crisis, and introduce the background and forms of Southeast Asian Financial Crisis and U.S. Subprime Mortgage Crisis respectively and the changes of the world economical trade pattern after two international financial crises.2. Make evaluative analysis of the influences on China’s total exports value and the export trade structure caused by Southeast Asian Financial Crisis and U.S. Subprime Mortgage Crisis. Based on the monthly statistics between the two crises separately and by way of quantitative comparison methods, the two crises’influences on China’s exports are researched from the standpoint of total export, trade partners, trade body, type of trading and export mix etc.Both of the two financial crises have affects on our exports, but at the degree of influence, the latter is bigger than the former. By a further analysis the paper finds that the influence caused by Southeast Asian Financial Crisis on the Chinese export is reflected on the Asian markets, mainly on the exports of state-owned enterprises, common trade form and the traditional labor-intensive products; while the U.S. Subprime Mortgage Crisis affected China in various fields, particularly in foreign-funded enterprises, material processing trade, and electromechanical and high-tech products.3. Compare the degree of the two financial crises influence in the point of empirical analysis. Southeast Asian Financial Crisis and U.S. Subprime Mortgage Crisis affect not only our export trade, but also our economic entities. By establishing financial crisis influence index which reflects the impact on the comprehensive changes of China’s economy and comparing the index of these two crises, the paper finds U.S. Subprime Mortgage Crisis has deeper shocking degree than that of Southeast Asian Financial Crisis, but with stronger corresponding policy, more healthy financial system and relatively sounder social security system, the impact caused by U.S. Subprime Mortgage Crisis on China’s real economy is less than that of Southeast Asian Financial Crisis.4. Make further comparison of the impact mechanism about the two financial crises on China’s export trade by the way of empirical analysis. Starting from the four major conduction paths such as the export trade income, prices, exchange rates, and foreign investment, which influence export trade, selecting related indicators based on the theoretical analysis, the paper identifies the main factors by examining the impact of China’s export trade and VAR model. Then in the quantitative point of view, the paper does more comparative analysis on the impacts of the two financial crises. During Southeast Asian Financial Crisis there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between China’s export trade and major trading partners, export price index and the real effective exchange rate. Real income, export commodity prices, and real effective exchange rate in major trading partners produce great impacts on export trade, but the actual utilization of foreign capital’s impact on export trade is not significant. During U.S. Subprime Mortgage Crisis, major trading partner countries’real income and real effective exchange rate affect export trade largely, export commodity prices and the actual utilization of foreign capital affect the export trade at a lower level. In the short term, during Southeast Asian Financial Crisis, China’s export growth depends mainly on foreign direct investment, and export commodity prices and RMB real effective exchange rate also have a role on export growth. While export growth depends mainly on income and major trading partners export prices During U.S. Subprime Mortgage Crisis.5. Quantitative comparisons are done between the influences of two financial crises on China’s exports from a regional perspective. Due to different levels of economic development and dependence on export, the ability to withstand financial crisis in eastern, central and western China is different. No matter before or after financial crisis, the dependence on export of the above three areas is in the following descending order:eastern areas, western areas and central areas. Export trade of eastern areas is greatly influenced by the two crises. Finally, the paper chooses Hebei Province which is in the coastal region but with Mainland economic characteristics as a research object, establishes corresponding econometrics models of financial crisis influence on the export in Hebei Province, in order to make comparative analysis of the two financial crises’influence on less developed regions.6. On the basis of the above empirical analysis, further analysis on the basic pattern that China’s exports faced during the period of post-financial crisis is made. The impacts of two exceptional financial crises on China’s export trade are enormous, and give us an important lesson and profound inspiration. Challenges posed by the future global financial crisis to Chinese economy, especially to the export trade will be greater. This paper makes strategic recommendations to address the financial crisis on the basis of the previous analysis.The paper adopts the method of combim g normative analysis with empirical analysis, integrating qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis. The main innovation of the thesis are:building a financial crisis index, comparing and analyzing the influence of the Southeast Asian Financial Crisis and the U.S. Subprime Mortgage Crisis on China’s exports, setting up the VAR model, investigating deeply and thoroughly the similarities and differences of the influence of the two crises on China’s exports in many aspects including background of the crisis, forms of expression, influence on export trade volume and trade structure, conduction path of impacts on export trade and China’s export trade regions, and making up the current inadequate research in academe. Above all, by tracking and concluding major financial crises’ impact on China, and making comparison between them, the paper puts forward strategies to fight against financial crisis.更多还原