【作者】 贾凤伶；

【导师】 刘应宗；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 设施蔬菜基地建设是丰富我国菜篮子工程,实现农业增效、农民增收的有效途径之一。本文运用工程管理一般原理和系统分析方法,对设施蔬菜基地建设规划管理问题进行了深入研究,为该类工程规划提出了管理理论和方法,并把它应用到青水源设施蔬菜基地建设规划管理问题分析中去。1、在蔬菜分类和方向选择影响因素分析的基础上,建立了设施蔬菜基地方向选择评价模型,根据该模型确定企业方向选择模式。通过市场供求影响因素分析,建立市场潜量预测模型和发展趋势预测模型,实现区域范围内的蔬菜市场预测,并针对市场供求矛盾提出解决方案。在基地方向选择和市场分析的基础上,通过对生产规模影响因素分析,并采用规模效益曲线法,确定设施蔬菜生产的合理经济规模。2、在地区条件和场地条件分析的基础上,提出建设条件比较法和费用比较法,实现场地优化选择。基于选择的场地,根据前人的经验及研究成果,并通过对日光温室标准化设计、生产设备选择的分析,提出相应的管理方法。3、通过对设施蔬菜生产需要的土地、水、能源、劳动力等影响因素分析,提出设施蔬菜基地资源利用效率评价指标体系,并建立资源利用效率评价模型和资源利用潜力评价模型,实现对设施蔬菜基地资源利用效率及利用潜力的评价。4、通过对设施蔬菜基地建设所费与所得分析,确定了设施蔬菜基地建设的财务内部收益率模型和利润模型,据此判断项目的可行性及盈利性。为防范风险,对设施蔬菜基地投资风险进行了研究,在对10位专家的调查反馈中,发现设施蔬菜基地投资主要是资金来源和市场需求风险,并针对风险提出风险管理措施。通过对我国设施农业扶持政策现状分析,提出在设施蔬菜面临市场风险时,政府应采取差额价格补贴模型制定设施蔬菜基地扶持政策。更多还原

【Abstract】 The building of facility vegetable base is one of efficiency routes for enriching vegetable basket program in our country, and realizes agricultural adding efficiency and farmer increasing income. Through the methods of the general principles of project management and system analysis, this thesis carry out in-depth study about planning management questions of building of facility vegetagle base, and provide management theory and methods for these kinds of planning projects running, and apply it to the analysis of management problems of the "blue water resource" vegetable base planning.1. Through the analysis of the classify of facility vegetable and the factors of direction selection, the model of direction selection of the base is put forward, which can ascertain the mode of corporation’s direction selection. Through the analysis of the factors of the market supply and demand, vegetable market ortential forecast model and developing trend forecast model are established, which realize the forecast of vegetable market within the region volume, and aiming at market supply and demand, the solutions are put forward. Based on the direction selectionof the base and the market analysis, and utilizing the method of scale benefit curve, the economic scale of the vegetable base is ascertained.2. Based on the analysis of the region and ground conditions of facility land use, the methods of building condition comparative and cost comparative are put forward, which realize the selection to the best producing ground. Based on site selection, according to the experience and research results of seniors, and through the analysis of the standardization of the greenhouse design and the selection of producing equipments, relevant management methods are put forward.3. Through the analysis of the effect factors of land, water, energy and human resources which vegetable production need, the evaluation index system of resources use efficiency for facility vegetable base is established, resources use efficiency evaluating model and resources use potential evaluating model are established to realize the evaluation to the resources use efficiency of facility vegetable base and use potential.4. Through the analysis of the cost and income of base building, financial internal rate of return(FIRR) model and profit model are established to judge the feasibility and profitability of the project. In order to keeping away risk, the risks of facility vegetable base are studied, the survey of 10 experts feedback shows that financial source risk and market demand risk are the main risk, and aiming at risk, the risk management measures are put forward. Through the anlysis of actuality of supporting policy of facility agriculture in our country, advice are put forward that the government should adopt margin price subsidy model to establish the supporting policy of facility vegetable base when the facility vegetable productions face market risks.更多还原