【作者】 阮利民；

【导师】 曹国华；

【作者基本信息】 重庆大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 流域生态补偿是保持流域内经济平衡、维持经济可持续发展、实现社会公平的重要手段。三峡库区作为长江流域中上游地区的重要生态屏障区,其环境的好坏直接影响了当地经济发展以及下游地区的生产生活成本,如何协调好上下游经济利益以实现整个流域的福利最大化是本文研究的主旨。本文通过对流域矿产资源补偿为切入点,利用实物期权方法研究了流域生态补偿的额度、分担率等关键因素,为实现流域生态补偿提供了理论基础。本文选择实物期权方法对流域生态补偿尤其是矿产资源价值的测算是行之有效的。分布在流域上游的矿产资源,对于当地的经济发展具有重要意义,但是由于顾全生态环境大局而放弃开采以达到整个流域生态的稳定平衡,受益的下游应该给予上游一定的补偿以弥补上游丧失的发展机会成本,补偿的额度必须合理,既要体现补偿机会成本又不能加重下游的经济负担,合理确定补偿额度成为流域生态补偿的关键。本文将选取流域范围内的矿产资源作为确定补偿额度的因素。但是由于矿产资源的价格等受到国家政策、经济环境以及其他资源价格等因素的影响而具有不确定性,传统的NPV方法方法已经无法解决不确定性带来的问题,而实物期权在解决不确定性问题方面具有独特的优势,被越来越多的应用于解决此类不确定性问题。本文在考察了矿产资源价格变化的基础上,确定了实物期权方法在解决矿产资源补偿方面的适用性。本文得出的结论主要有以下几个方面:①本文提出简化的基于实物期权的矿产价值评估模型,并将这一简化的模型应用于流域生态补偿。在罗吉斯生长曲线确定的分担率的框架下,确定了流域下游对上游生态补偿标准。通过建立基于实物期权的流域矿产资源开发生态补偿的总体框架,弥补了传统流域生态补偿额度测定方法无法计算矿产资源的附加价值和补偿分担率不足的问题。②文章又考虑了矿产资源价格分布在具有离散性的条件下,通过实物期权二叉树方法对价格不确定的矿产资源价值进行了分析计算,得出了相应的价值计算方法。流域矿产资源的开发对区域经济发展产生的影响,不仅仅体现在矿产资源的实体价值上,其开发利用对区域经济的发展具有相对于实体价值扩大或缩小的效应。生态补偿机制的根本就是平衡区际经济发展,弥补由于不能开发资源而对区域经济产生的负面影响。因此,本文还充分考虑了这种扩大或缩小的效应,在生态补偿额的确定过程中引入了矿产资源对区域经济发展的影响因子。通过对重庆地区各类资源的数据分析,最终得出了适合三峡库区流域矿产资源补偿的各个补偿因子及最终补偿额度。③本文通过观察分析障碍期权的特点,发现流域矿产资源限制开采补偿具有上升敲出期权的特性,结合流域矿产资源补偿的具体情况,利用障碍期权理论方法给出了下游补偿定价模型及求解,分析了上游开采成本和下游治污成本两个关键因素对补偿价值的影响。④从流域生态补偿的角度,阐述了补偿资金的来源和分担机制。文章分析在制定流域生态补偿机制过程中,生态补偿额度在流域上下游地区之间分担有两种方式即市场交易形式与政府调控形式。作为市场交易形式,文章通过罗吉斯生长曲线模型,根据流域干流上下游地区的恩格尔系数、生态价值支付意愿模型来确定各受益对象的支付意愿,即间接收益系数;并可由上游和下游从流域干流的取水量比重来反映直接收益系数,进而解决了流域生态补偿额度分担率的问题。作为政府调控的形式,文章提出了设立三峡库区生态补偿基金。生态补偿基金的规模主要由三峡库区年度生态保护的投入与发展机会成本来确定,而生态补偿基金的分担比例则主要由三峡库区、下游地区发展差异水平来确定,同时中央政府从全国范围生态受益角度也应承担相应比例。⑤提出了构建三峡库区生态补偿机制相关建议。论文的主要创新点体现在以下三方面:①论文针对确定生态补偿标准的难处在于发展机会成本的测算,分别运用实物期权理论的二叉树模型和Black-Scholes期权定价模型对矿产资源价值不确定性进行了分析,制定了相应的价值计算方法,根据三峡库区矿产资源分布状况,提出了矿产资源限制性开发的生态补偿额度测算方式。②论文通过观察分析障碍期权的特点,发现流域矿产资源限制开采补偿具有上升敲出期权的特性,结合流域矿产资源补偿的具体情况,利用障碍期权理论方法给出了下游补偿定价模型及求解,分析了上游开采成本和下游治污成本两个关键因素对补偿价值的影响。③论文根据三峡库区具有流域补偿、重要生态功能区的双重特征,建立以政府补偿为主导,流域补偿、市场补偿为补充的生态补偿体系,提出了设立三峡库区生态补偿基金及其基本框架,包括生态补偿基金的规模主要由三峡库区年度生态保护的投入与发展机会成本来确定,而生态补偿基金的分担比例则主要由三峡库区、下游地区发展差异水平来确定,同时鉴于中央政府从全国范围生态受益角度也应承担相应比例。更多还原

【Abstract】 Three gorges reservoir area’s ecological compensation is the way of keeping basic economic balance, sustainable economic development and social justice. The three gorges valley is taken as important ecological shelters for the environment of the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River. It has a direct impact on the local economic development and the production and living costs of the lower reaches of Yangtze River. How to appropriately adjust the economic benefits of the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River and how to maximize the welfare of the whole valley is the theme researched in this paper.Taking the compensation for the basin’s mineral resources as breakthrough point, this paper has researched the Yangtze River basin’s ecological compensation amount, share rate and other key factors by the method of real options, which offers the theoretical basis for compensation mechanism for watershed ecology.The real options method is effective for the basin’s ecological compensation, especially the estimation of the value of basin’s mineral resources. The mineral resources in upper reaches are significant for the local economical development. To reach overall ecological balances, exploiting the mineral resources is given up to save the ecological environment. So the compensation should be given by the lower reaches for the benefits of the upper reaches to make up for their development opportunity. The compensation quota must be reasonable. Not only can it compensate for opportunity, but also it cannot impose the extra burden on the lower. So it is critical to determine reasonable compensation quota. This paper will choose the mineral resources of Yangtze basin as a determinant factor for determine the compensation quota. But the price of mineral resources is influenced by the state policies, economic environment, other resources’price and some other factors so its price is uncertain. The traditional NPV method has been unable to approach the problems that uncertainty has brought. Real option method has unique advantages when solving the uncertainty problems and it has been extensively applied to solve this kind of problems. Based on the research of fluctuating price of mineral resources, this paper has verified the applicability of real option method in the work of the mineral resources compensationThe conclusions we have made from this paper are: This paper has established a simplified model in evaluation the value of mineral resources based on real option method and the model has been applied on the compensation mechanism for watershed ecology.①In the new share rate framework determined by Rogues growth curve, the standards of ecological compensation that lower reaches of basin should make for the upper reaches were identified. The overall framework of ecological compensation based on mineral resources exploiting by real option method resolved the problem that traditional ecological compensation quota cannot calculate the added value of mineral resources and inadequate compensation share rate.②Considering the price distribution of mineral resources is discrete, the value of mineral resources was analyzed and gained the corresponding value computational method by real option binary tree method. The influence on the region’s economic development made by the exploiting of mineral resources not only embodied in the value of mineral resources, but also it has expanded or reduced effect relative to the value on the region’s economic development. Ecological compensation mechanism’s essence is to balance inter-regional economic development and compensate for the regional economical loss brought by not exploiting its mineral resources. Therefore, the expanded or reduced effects were also taken into full consideration in his paper. In the process of determining compensation amount, the influence factor of the mineral resources on regional economic development was proposed. In the final data analysis of all kinds of resources in Chongqing, the compensation factor and compensation amount appropriate for three gorges reservoir area were eventually fixed.③By analyzing the characteristic of barrier option, the compensation for limiting exploiting mineral resources can be characterized by up on the option. The pricing model of compensation for lower reaches and its solution method were gained by barrier option method according to the detail conditions. The mining cost of the upper reaches and pollution treatment cost of the lower reaches were two key factors affecting compensation amount.④The capital source and the mechanism of share were illustrated from the point of basin’s ecological compensation, In the process of establishing compensation mechanism, the ways of sharing ecological compensation between the upper reaches and lower reaches were governmental adjustment and market transaction. As the way of market transaction, the willingness to pay of all beneficiaries or indirect beneficial coefficient were determined by Rouges growth curve model according to Engel’s coefficient of the upper and lower reaches of the basin, and ecological value willingness-to- pay model. And the direct beneficial coefficient can be reflected by the quantity ratio of water collection of upper reaches and lower reaches. Then the problem of basin’s ecological compensation share rate was addressed. As the way of governmental adjustment, establishing the three gorges reservoir area’s ecological compensation fund was proposed in this paper. The scale of ecological compensation fund was mainly determined by three gorges reservoir area’s annual capital input for environmental protect and its development opportunity cost. While the share rate of compensation fund should be determined by the upper and lower reaches of three gorges reservoir area. The central government should also bear some amount for national ecological benefit.⑤Some related recommendations on the compensation mechanism for watershed ecology were proposed.The innovation spots of the paper as bellow:①The difficulty in determining compensation standard lied in the estimating development opportunity cost. The uncertainty of mineral resources value was analyzed and corresponding computational method was set by the real option binary tree model and Black-Scholes option pricing model. The calculation method of ecological compensation amount for restricted mining of mineral resources was proposed according to the mineral resources distribution of three gorges reservoir area.②Through observing and analyzing the characteristics of barrier option, up-on-the-option characteristic of the compensation for limiting exploiting mineral resources has been found. The pricing model of compensation for lower reaches and its solution method were gained by barrier option method according to the detail conditions. The mining cost of the upper reaches and pollution treatment cost of the lower reaches were two key factors affecting compensation amount.③According that three gorges reservoir area can be characterized by ecological compensation and important eco-function areas, the compensation was led by government and supplemented by reservoir area and market. The establishing of three gorges reservoir area’s ecological compensation fund and its framework were proposed. To be specific, the scale of ecological compensation fund was mainly determined by three gorges reservoir area’s annual capital input for environmental protect and its development opportunity cost. While the share rate of compensation fund should be determined by the upper and lower reaches of three gorges reservoir area. The central government should also bear some amount for national ecological benefit.更多还原