【作者】 张一清；

【导师】 王利；

【作者基本信息】 首都经济贸易大学 ， 数量经济学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 当前,我国能源需求持续增长,对能源供给形成了很大的压力,能源的瓶颈制约成为我国经济社会发展的突出问题。一方面能源供给不足,另一方面是高耗能产业的存在,大量消耗着有限的能源,制约着我国经济的发展。我国能源消费中以化石能源为主,如何优化配置化石能源,走一条既符合中国国情又与国际先进水平看齐的可持续发展的能源道路。论文从优化我国能源资源的配置角度出发,对总量上控制能源消费,提出了针对性的政策建议,并作了相应的论证,这在很大程度上可以促使我国能源体系从粗放、低效、高排放、欠安全的能源体系,转变为节约、高效、洁净、多元、安全的现代化能源体系。从能源优化配置,总量控制能源消费的角度,论文主要从以下几个方面做了深入的研究。(1)明确指出了能源优化配置制度的目标、方式、约束条件、求解流程以及相应的制度环境。(2)利用博弈论工具比较了自由放任、计划机制以及基于宏观调控的市场机制三种不同的能源优化配置制度,得出了基于宏观调控的化石能源的市场配置机制能够实现总GDP产出最大并且各地区的发展符合社会的规划。(3)提出了能源全成本定价,才能理顺扭曲能源价格机制的观点,并给出了能源的全成本定价模型。针对能源具有准公共物品的特点,利用了博弈论模型论证了能源产品的阶梯定价能够优化产业结构,使有限的能源优先分配到最具经济效率的产业中去,实现经济可持续发展。4)提出了能源优化配置中可以使用的行政手段,包括：能源消耗定额、配额,并具体分析了能源消耗定额和配额制定的依据,以及如何进行分配能源配额及实施。论文的基本研究基本思路：文献回顾→能源配置制度目标、约束条件与计算流程→放任自由、计划机制以及基于宏观调控的市场机制三种化石能源配置机制的博弈分析→能源的全成本定价及阶梯定价→能源优化配置的行政手段如能源税的征收,能源消耗定额及配额的使用→不同类别产业的能源政策→结论。论文主要采用博弈论、投入产出分析、聚类分析等方法。博弈论方法主要用于放任自由、计划机制以及基于宏观调控的市场机制三种化石能源配置机制的论证以及能源阶梯定价优势的论证上。投入产出分析和聚类分析方法主要从不同产业的影响力系数和感应度系数角度,对能源优化配置制度促进产业结构调整的效果进行分析。针对各行业的感应度和影响力系数以及各行业万元GDP能耗进行计算,进而基于能耗和感应度系数、基于能耗和影响力系数两个角度进行聚类分析,从农业、第二产业和第三产业三个维度,就实现经济可持续发展的角度下,从产业结构调整角度提出了相应的对策建议。论文的研究重点是如何综合运用市场手段和行政手段实现我国能源配置的优化。在能源总量控制的目标下,如何运用能源的全成本模型以及阶梯定价模型,以及能源的配额和定额进行产业结构优化,使有限的能源优先分配到最具经济效率的产业中去,实现经济可持续发展。研究成果及结论：1)提出了政府宏观调控下市场机制配置化石能源是最优的观点,并使用博弈论工具进行了论证。2)能源的定价应该使用能源的全成本定价,即必须包括能源的资源成本、工程技术成本和生态环境成本；考虑到能源具有准公共物品的特点,能源应该使用阶梯定价,这样可以优化产业结构,使有限的能源优先分配到最具经济效率的产业中去,实现经济可持续发展。3)要实现能源的总量控制,除了市场机制外还要采用能源定额和配额等必要的行政手段,提高能源使用效率,实现能源配置的优化。需要进一步研究的问题：基于数据的限制,论文没有完成调研、能源的全成本及阶梯定价的测算。化石能源的全成本和阶梯定价模型设计涉及能源资源成本、工程开发成本以及生态环境成本以及阶梯定价中层次的划分,由于需要大量专家经验以及化石能源企业生产以及能源开发及使用对环境生态影响的数据,存在较大的难度。更多还原

【Abstract】 Currently, China’s energy demand continues to increase, the energy supply faces great pressure, the bottleneck restriction of energy becomes one outstanding problem of China’s economic and social development. On the one hand energy supply insufficiently, on the other hand high energy-consuming industries exist, which consume limited energy greatly and restrict the development of our national economy.China’s energy consumption is mainly fossil fuels, how to optimize configuration fossil fuels and take a sustainable-development energy road, according with China’s national conditions and the international advanced level, which becomes the current research hotspot problem.From the aspect of optimizing energy configuration, paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendation on energy consumption of total amount control, and makes corresponding argument, which could largely promote our country’s energy system changing from extensive, low efficiency, high emissions and owe safe energy system to economic, highly efficient and clean, multi-channel and safe modern energy system.From the aspect of energy optimal allocation and total amount control energy consumption, paper mainly research on the following several aspects.(1)explicitly pointing out the goal mode, constraint condition and solving process of energy optimization allocation system and the corresponding institutional environment.(2) Comparing three different energy optimization allocation system of the laissez-faire, plan mechanism and the market mechanism based on macro regulation, paper draws a conclusion that fossil resources market allocation mechanism based on macro regulation can realize the maximum output of total GDP and conforms to the social development planning.(3) Paper puts forward energy total cost pricing to rationalize distorted energy price mechanism, and gives the energy total cost pricing model. For energy has the characteristic of quasi-public goods, by using the game theory model, paper demonstrates energy ladder pricing can optimize the industrial structure, make limited energy priority assigned to the most economic efficient industry, realizing economic sustainable development.(4) Paper puts forward a point of view that we can use administrative measures to optimize energy configuration, which include energy consumption quotas, quotas. Paper also concretely analyzes the formulation basis of energy consumption quota, quotas, and how to allocate energy quotas and implementation.The basic research ideas:literature review→energy configuration system goals, constraint condition and calculation procedure→game analysis of three kind of energy allocating mechanism(laissez-faire, plan mechanism and market mechanism based on macro regulation)→energy total cost pricing and ladder pricing→administrative measures of energy optimizing configuration, such as energy tax, energy consumption quota and quotas→empirical analysis→conclusion.Paper mainly adopts such methods as game theory, input and output analysis, cluster analysis. Game theory is mainly used for the option argumentation of three kinds of energy allocating mechanism, the advantage demonstration of energy ladder price.From influence coefficient and induction coefficient angle, input-output and cluster analysis mainly analyze the effect of energy optimizing configuration system promoting industrial structure adjustment. Paper calculates induction coefficient, influence coefficient and industries’energy consumption of million-Yuan GDP.Paper further clustering analyzes energy consumption and induction coefficient, energy consumption and influence coefficient.From the Angle of industrial structure adjustment, based on three dimensions of agriculture, the second industry and the third industry, paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures to realize economic sustainable development.Paper point of research:Paper point of research is how to comprehensively use market means and administrative measures to realize the energy configuration optimization. In the energy total amount control target, the emphasis is how to use the energy total cost and ladder pricing model, energy quotas and fixed quotas to optimize the industrial structure, assign limited energy priority to the most economic efficient industry and realize economic sustainable development.Research results and conclusions:(1) Paper puts forward the point of view that market mechanism under the government’s macro-regulation is the fossil energy optimal configuration method, demonstrate it using game theory.(2) Energy pricing should use energy total cost pricing, namely energy price should include energy resource cost, engineering cost andecological environment cost. Considering the characteristic of quasi-public goods of energy, we should use energy ladder pricing to optimize industrial structure, assigning limited energy priority to the most economic efficient industry, realizing economic sustainable development.3) To realize the total amount control of energy, besides the market mechanism, we should use such necessary administrative means as energy norm and quotas, improving energy efficiency and achieving energy configuration optimization.Later need to study questions:For the limits of data, paper do not complete investigation, the energy total cost, and the measurements of ladder pricing. Fossil energy total cost and ladder pricing model design involve energy resource cost, engineering costs, the ecological environment cost and levels division of the ladder pricing, there is greater difficulty in getting these data, including large expert experience and fossil energy enterprise production and energy development and use.更多还原