【作者】 林春山；

【导师】 陈建安；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 世界经济， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 中国长期、持续的贸易增长现象不仅是一个经济奇迹,也是个政治奇迹。地方政府、中央政府、行业管理部门、国企对于经济活动的介入程度之深,调控力度之大,在世界大国之中是绝无仅有的。因此,对中国经济活动的任何重要领域进行考察,都离不开对于政治运作、政经互动的深刻理解,对外贸活动的研究和把握也是如此。当前中国贸易政策面临的政治经济形势错综复杂,既有全球调整贸易政策、民主政治进入动荡期、贸易保护主义重新抬头等外部因素,也有国内经济改革步入深水区、中央与地方博弈增强、政府治理改革加速等内部因素。不仅有我国GDP超越日本登上世界第二位置等振奋人心的消息,不仅有关于贸易政策调整、过政治民主化之河(韦森,2010)等日益高涨的急切呼声,也有大豆贸易、稀土贸易、铁矿石贸易和轮胎特保案等重要实践案例。面对复杂形势,贸易政策的调整和转型成为历史的必然选择。选定了这一研究方向之后,找到好的切入视角将是取得成功的关键。本文以新政治经济学为研究基础,引入行为经济学成果,全面、系统地研究中国外贸活动、贸易政策的各个方面,力图从中提炼一般规律,为研究中国贸易调整与转型问题提供一个指导性框架。第一章为导论,第二章为文献综述,第八章为全文总结。除此以外,本文主要内容可分为五个部分。第三章引入财政分权、政府竞争因素,借助1985-2008年的省际面板数据,深入探讨中国出口增长和国内政治体制的内在联系。研究发现,中国式的财政分权是贸易增长、贸易顺差的重要制度性根源,忽略或者绕过地方政府改革因素试图通过人民币升值化解贸易顺差问题并不可行。第四章在综合PFS模型、POS模型和PFSL模型的基础上,结合中国集中管理型经济秩序和民主集中制政治秩序,构造了PFSLC模型,用于考察中国贸易保护政策的决策机理。进而,以1992-2004年的工业面板数据对PFLSC模型进行实证检验。研究表明,贸易政策内生化理论在中国基本成立,国内政治因素对于贸易政策的影响虽常被忽略但却确实存在,利益集团化、政治民主化将成为贸易政策调整与转型的重要推动力量。第五章承继第四章的研究,从国际视角探讨不同决策体制国家进行贸易博弈的结果。全章分集团调节型宪政民主制国家率先挑起争端和集中管理型民主集中制国家率先挑起争端两种不同情形讨论了贸易博弈的均衡解。推导显示,无论哪一类型国家首先发动贸易争端,虽然有着不同的贸易成本和博弈均衡解,但对于贸易流量和贸易总福利的影响都是毫无疑义的,加强贸易协调机制建设尤显重要。第六章从政治、经济、社会和贸易转折点出发,考察韩国、日本和台湾等地经验,研究经济发展和贸易变量之间的内在关系。接着,基于13个贸易大国1960-2009年面板数据,检验了政治民主化、经济增长和贸易依存之间的作用关系。研究表明,中国应当清醒认识和理性接受接近贸易转折点的现实,加快制度变革和模式转换,有效应对新的发展环境,顺利安度贸易转折期。第七章从反思单一目标贸易政策框架入手,参照货币政策运作体系,首次提出了三元目标的贸易政策运作框架。同时,利用1978-2009年相关数据,逐一考察了贸易增长、贸易平衡和贸易效率的影响因素及其政策含义。研究表明,贸易平衡和贸易效率具有重要意义,其地位和受重视程度应当得到有效提升。从长远看,要综合平衡进口和出口,搭建符合产业升级、经济转型和利益最大化原则的贸易政策运作框架。更多还原

【Abstract】 China’s long-term trade boom is not only an economic miracle, but also a political miracle. Compared with other big countries, there is a special character about China that local government, central government, industrial management government and state-owned enterprises have involved in economic activities so deeply. Therrfore, any research about China’s economy cannot succeed without thorough understanding about political operation and political-economic relation which is the same about foreign trade research.Nowadays, China faces a complicated political and economic situation. China not only faces with international problems such as global adjustment of trade policy, democracy turbulence, rising of trade protectism, but also faces with internal problems like economic interest transformation, fierce dice game between central government and local government and speeding up of government reforms. There are encouraging information such as China becoming the second largest economy in the world after surpassing Japan, there are eager voices about adjustment of China’s foreign trade and passing over the river of political transformation (Wei Sen,2010)Facing with complicated situation, the adjustment of foreign trade policy becomes one inevitable trend. After chosing the research topic, finding a good angle becomes a key factor to gain success. This paper’s research is based on new political economics theory and behavioral economics, aims to think about foreign trade policy’s various aspests, find common objective laws and set a guiding structure for China’s foreign trade policy.In addition to the first chapter (Intreduction), the second chapter (Document Sunmary) and the eight chapter (Conclusion), all the other five chapters are major contents of this paper. In chapter three, after introduction of fiscal decentralization and local government’s competition, basing on 1985-2008 data, to find out important relations between China’s export growth and political system. One conclusion of this chapter is that the Chinese-style fiscal decentralization has become one origin of trade increases and trade surplus. We are not able to resolve trade balance problem by ignoring local government’s reform.In fourth chapter, basing on PFS model, POS model and PFSL model and considering China’s central managing economic order and democratic centralism, we make a PFSLC model to inspect the decision-making mechanism of China’s trade protection policy. Then, with the 1992-2004 industrial panel data, we carry out an empirical test on PFLSC model.This research indicates that endogenous trade policy theory works in China. Though always being ignored, domestic political factors really influence trade policy judgement.Inheriting fourth chapter’s research, we investigate and discuss game result between different type of countries in the fifth chapter. On different assumption of first-activing country, the calculation can get different equilibria results. No matter which type of country launches the trade dispute at first, it is no doubt to bear loss of trade flow constriction and general welfare. So it is very important to build up trade coordination system.In the sixth chapter, setting off from political, economic, social and trade turning points, we inspect experiences of Korea Republic, Japan and Taiwan and find out inherent relations between political democratization, economic growth and trade development. Then, basing on 13 countries’panel data from 1960 to 2009, this paper checks the relations between political democratization, economic growth and trade development. One conclusion of this chapter is that our nation should recognize approaching of trade turning point, speed up system transformation and model conversion and deal with new development environment.In the seventh chapter, basing on rethinking the unitary target trade policy frame profoundly, this paper brings forword the three-target frame. At the same time, basing on relevant data from 1978 to 2009, this paper inspects influencing factors and policy suggestion of trade increase, trade balance and trade efficiency one by one. One conclusion is that the present position of trade balance and trade efficiency ought to be lifted. In the long run, it is important to build up an operation frame of foreign trade which can maximize our nation’s interest.更多还原