【作者】 洪燕真；

【导师】 余建辉； 刘伟平；

【作者基本信息】 福建农林大学 ， 林业经济管理， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 粮油安全问题及其所引起的社会经济稳定问题已经引起全世界的广泛关注。我国农业资源面临的刚性约束和居民膳食结构升级的矛盾日益突出,优质食用油的供给不足已经成为影响我国粮油安全战略的重要问题。油茶产业因具有“不与粮争地”的优点和安全、高品质的特征而受到决策部门和学术界的重视,它所具有的经济效益、生态效益和社会效益不仅能改善林业可持续经营模式,更在充分发挥我国丰富的林地资源食物供给能力方面具有战略意义。但是,现阶段与油茶产业发展相关的许多重要问题尚不明确,其中,最大的不确定体现为供给不足问题。油茶原料供给的经济可行性和供给潜力是决定油茶产业发展前景的关键环节,供给潜力主要取决于单位面积产量和种植面积。由于现阶段我国油茶的供给主体主要为农户,因此,除受自然约束外,油茶生产投入行为和种植面积的决策又主要取决于农户的供给决策特征和决策机制。这些问题的解决具有重要的现实意义,但当前尚未有系统的实证研究。因此,本研究的总体目标是:从农户的微观层面入手,清晰把握油茶产业的发展现状及其主要的影响因素,揭示农户油茶供给的投入产出关系,在此基础上模拟分析不同情境下油茶的供给,并通过对农户油茶供给行为决策意愿和机制的实证研究,验证分析油茶供给现状和供给潜力实现的条件,为油茶产业政策的制定和推广提供实证依据。为实现研究目标,本研究综合运用了经济学、运筹学、社会学等学科的研究方法,做到规范研究与实证研究、定性与定量方法相结合,主要内容涉及以下6个方面:(1)采用文献研究法分析油茶产业发展的历史、现状以及每个发展阶段的产业政策变迁过程,从宏观层面描绘油茶产业的发展轮廓,为分析油茶供给的主要影响因素及原因奠定基础。主要包括第二、三章。(2)从农户供给行为理论出发,构建了影响农户油茶供给的影响因素框架,在此基础上构建了油茶生产函数和供给决策理论模型,奠基全文的理论框架结构。主要内容为第四章。(3)应用访谈问卷调查法设计调查问卷,收集基于农户油茶地块的投入产出数据,采用描述性统计分析法从微观层面刻画农户油茶供给行为特征并进行经济效益评价,为提出研究假设、构建供给决策模型提供依据。主要内容为第五、六章。(4)运用计量经济模型、专家访谈法估计并修正油茶生产函数模型,采用线性规划法编程求解油茶供给最优投入产出关系,并模拟不同情境下的油茶供给潜力,评价我国油茶规划发展目标实现的社会经济条件。主要内容包括第七、八章。(5)运用二元logistic回归法、净现值法实证农户油茶供给意愿及决策原因,并运用个案研究法进一步揭示农户油茶供给决策机制,验证农户油茶供给现状、主要影响因素和实现油茶供给潜力的社会经济条件。主要内容为第九、十章。(6)围绕研究结论展开政策讨论,提出政策建议,主要内容为第十一章。本文通过理论和实证研究得出以下主要结论:(1)从油茶供给宏观层面看,油茶原料供应能力小于油茶计划加工产能,油茶市场发育尚不成熟。(2)从油茶供给微观层面看,当前油茶种植在农户家庭资源配置中处于劣势,且由于良种、技术供给不足,农户经营抚育投入水平低,油茶单位面积产出水平和生命周期内的经济效益相对低下。(3)当前影响油茶单位面积产出水平的主要影响因素有前期累计投入、当期劳动力投入和林地的适宜性。由于农户对油茶树的肥料投入很少,肥料对产量水平的影响暂不显著。(4)通过油茶供给决策模型规划求解得出,当前的油茶投入产出关系并未达到最优,尤其是肥料的投入水平与最优投入关系存在较大的差距,油茶供给有较大的增长潜力。(5)全国油茶供给潜力模拟显示,未来全国油茶供给潜力居前3位的分别为湖南、江西和福建。但在当前的投入产出水平下,即使在高发展方案下也难以实现油茶规划发展目标。只有当要素投入弹性、油茶产品价格、生产要素价格、贴现率等社会经济条件发生一定变化时才能实现发展目标。(6)从油茶供给意愿和决策机制看,当前农户种植油茶积极性不高,主要原因是油茶比较收益低、油茶产业政策未充分发挥激励效果、油茶产品市场尚未完善、社会化服务体系不完善等。基于上述研究结论,本文认为:(1)油茶产业的发展具有现实性和紧迫性,但发展目标要适度,应通过提高油茶经营抚育水平增强供给目标的可实现性;(2)应通过扩大技术供给、强化政策激励效果等手段降低单位面积油茶产量供给成本,提高农户油茶供给意愿;(3)通过培育油茶原料收购市场、清晰油茶产品市场定位等方式扩大油茶产品需求,为油茶供给注入稳定的动力。由于当前从农户的经济视角研究油茶供给环节的前期积累很少,而供给环节和农户的供给决策是决定油茶产业能否顺利发展的关键,因此,本研究的视角和内容有一定的创新性。本文有机结合了计量经济学、运筹学和社会学的相关研究方法,在研究方法上做了一些新的尝试。此外,本文率先定量理清了农户油茶生产的投入产出关系,模拟出不同方案下油茶的供给潜力,对政策目标进行评价并提出实现的条件,研究结论具有一定的新意和实际应用价值。但由于研究条件所限,本研究的农户数据收集范围仅限于福建省,又由于油茶生长周期较长,近5年内新造的代表较高经营抚育水平的油茶林尚未投产,只有等这部分样本进入盛产期后,获取更大规模的样本投入产出数据才能更好地反映油茶的供给现状和潜力。因此,本课题今后有待进一步跟踪和研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 Food security and its socio-economic impact has attracted worldwide attention. The strong constrain of agricultural resources faced by China and the upgrading of the structure of dietary become increasingly prominent, and the shortage of high-quality edible oil supply has been an important problem which impacts on China’s food safety strategy. Because of the benefits of not occupying cultivated land and the good features of woody oil, policy-making authorities and academics start to focus on the development of Camellia oleifera Abel industry. Camellia oleifera Abel industry has economic, ecological and social benefits, which can not only improve the business model of sustainable forestry, but also give full play to China’s rich forest resources in the capability of food supply. However, many important issues related to the development of Camellia oleifera Abel industry at this stage are still unknown, of which the largest uncertainty reflected is the problem of insufficient supply. The economic feasibility and the supply potentiality of raw materials are the key to determine the development of Camellia oleifera Abel industry, and the supply potentiality mainly depends on the per unit area yield and planting area. As the main supply body of Camellia oleifera Abel is farmer, therefore, in addition to natural constraints, the determination of input behavior and decision-making of growing area is depended on the characteristics and decision-making mechanisms of farming household. These problems have important practical significance, but there have not got systematic empirical researches currently.Therefore, the overall objectives of this study are to grasp the present situation and its main influencing factors of Camellia oleifera Abel industry from micro level, to reveal the relationships between input and output, based on which to simulate the supply potentiality of Camellia oleifera Abel in different situations. Then through the empirical research on supply behavior causes and decision-making mechanisms, validates and analyzes the present situation and conditions to achieve the supply potentiality of Camellia oleifera Abel industry, which can provide empirical evidences for the constituting and extending of the development policies of Camellia oleifera Abel.To achieve the objectives of this study, the research comprehensively uses of normative study and empirical study, qualitative and quantitative methods of economics, operational research and sociology, which mainly involves the following six parts: (1) Analyses the history and present situation of Camellia oleifera Abel industry as well as the industrial policy changes to describe a clear picture of the development of Camellia oleifera Abel industry, laying the foundation for the analysis of the main factors affecting the supply of Camellia oleifera Abel. This part includes the second and third chapters. (2) Using farmers’supply behavior theory and behavioral science theory, the paper constructs the supply factors framework of Camellia oleifera Abel farming households. On this basis, constructs the production function and supply decision-making model of Camellia oleifera Abel, laying a foundation of theoretical framework for the text structure. This part includes the fourth chapter. (3) Applying interview questionnaire survey method to design questionnaire and collect data based on input-output land blocks. Using statistical analysis method to depict the behavioral characteristics of Camellia oleifera Abel farming households and make the economic evaluation, providing basis for proposing hypotheses and building supply decision model from micro level. The main contents are the fifth and sixth chapters. (4) Takes use of econometric models, expert interviews to estimate and correct the production function model of Camellia oleifera Abel. Uses linear programming theory to slove the optimal relationship between input and output, simulate the potential supply of Camellia oleifera Abel in different situations, and evaluate the socio-economic conditions to achieve the planning objectives. The main contents are the seventh and eighth chapters. (5) Use binary logistic regression analysis, net present value method to quantitatively measures farming household’s will to supply Camellia oleifera Abel and factors that affect the will, and use case studies to reveal the supply decision-making mechanism of Camellia oleifera Abel farmers. The conclusions are used to validate the current supply status, the main factors and the social and economic conditions to achieve supply potentiality of Camellia oleifera Abel. This part mainly includes the ninth and tenth chapters. (6) Promotes policy recommendations according to the study conclusions. Include the eleventh chapter.Through theoretical and empirical research, the paper reaches the following conclusions: (1) From the macro level, the supply capacity of raw materials is less than the planed processing capacity of Camellia oleifera Abel, and the development of Camellia oleifera Abel market is not yet mature. (2) From the micro level, the status of resources allocation for Camellia oleifera Abel is low in the farming households. Because of the poor quality, small-scale land parcel and the low level of tending, the per unit yield and economic benefits of Camellia oleifera Abel is relatively low. (3) Factors that affect the per unit yield of Camellia oleifera Abel are cumulative input, the current labor input and the suitability of forest land. Because the input of fertilizer is seldom at present, the effect of fertilizer is temporarily inapparent. (4) According to the conclusion based on the solving of Camellia oleifera Abel supply decision-making model, the current input-output relationship is not yet optimal, especially for fertilizer input. So there is a great potential for growth in Camellia oleifera Abel supply. (5) The simulation results of Camellia oleifera Abel supply potential shows that the top 3 provinces have the greatest Camellia oleifera Abel supply potential are Hunan, Jiangxi and Fujian Province. But in the current input-output level, even under the high growth program, it is also difficult to achieve the development objectives of Camellia oleifera Abel. Only when making a difference on elasticity of factor inputs, Camellia oleifera Abel product prices, factor prices, the discount rate and other socio-economic conditions can the development goals be achieved. (6) For the supply will and decision-making mechanism of Camellia oleifera Abel, farmers’enthusiasm to plant Camellia oleifera Abel is not high, which mainly due to the comparative low income, industrial policy that not fully demonstrated effects, incomplete market and imperfect social service system.Based on the above conclusions, this paper makes the following recommendations: (1) The development of Camellia oleifera Abel industry is realistic and urgent, but it is necessary to formulat appropriate developing goals and to enhance the realizability of developing goals through improving tending level of Camellia oleifera Abel. (2) It is necessary to increase farming households’supply will through the expansion of technologies and strengthening the effect of policy incentive and other means to reduce the cost of unit area yield of Camellia oleifera Abel supply. (3) Expand demand of Camellia oleifera Abel by cultivating raw materials markets and clear market positioning, which can immit stable power for the supply of Camellia oleifera Abel.Given there was little literature studying the supply of Camellia oleifera Abel from economic perspective of household, but the supply of household decision-making is the key to determine whether the Camellia oleifera Abel industry will develop successfully, this study is innovative in perspective and content. This paper also makes some new trial in research methods by combinating of econometrics, operational research and sociology methods. In addition, the conclusions of this study evaluates the policy objectives and proposes the conditions for implementation, which has some practical value. However, due to the limited research conditions, the collection of data is limited to farming households in Fujian Province. Also because of the long growth cycle of Camellia oleifera Abel, the new created Camellia oleifera Abel in recent 5 years which is on behalf of a higher tending level has not yet put into production. Only after the holocarpicing of this part of sample can we obtain a larger scale of input-output data to better reflect the status and potential supply of Camellia oleifera Abel. Therefore, this issue needs further concern and future research.更多还原