【作者】 王士海；

【导师】 李先德；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业科学院 ， 农业经济管理， 2011， 博士

【副题名】基于政策工具有效性的分析

【摘要】 作为最基本的生活必需品，粮食的重要性毋庸赘言。粮食的短缺对社会形成的冲击使得国际社会和各个国家的政府都高度重视粮食安全问题。尽管经济学家大多将粮食安全问题理解为长期的粮食供给问题，但这并不意味着短期的粮食价格问题就不重要。即使不考虑粮食价格的相对稳定对于保障家庭层面粮食安全的重要性，让粮食价格保持在使得粮食生产者有利可图的水平本身就是保障长久粮食生产能力的基础。进入21世纪以来国际市场粮食价格出现了较大的波动，防止粮食价格的过度波动几乎是国际社会，尤其是粮食不安全程度较高的国家共同的任务。本文以中国的粮食价格调控政策为研究对象，着重讨论了四个主要的粮食价格调控政策工具对粮食价格的影响，从而探究粮食价格调控政策的有效性和存在的一些问题。本文首先对中国粮食价格政策的沿革历程尤其是建国以后的政策变化进行简要的回顾，并通过分析中国粮食市场在全球粮食危机中的表现来大致判断粮食价格调控政策的有效性。在论文的主体部分，本文分别考察了最低收购价政策对市场价格的托市效应、政策性粮食拍卖对粮食价格的平抑效应、粮食贸易政策对粮食调控的作用，以及燃料乙醇发展政策对粮食价格调控的作用等四个问题。研究结论显示，这些政策都可以在一定程度上起到调控粮食价格的作用，不过效果各有不同。其中最低收购价政策对大部分粮食品种都存在托市效应，但对油脂业用大豆市场价格的影响则不明显；竞价拍卖政策的有效性与各品种的政策性收储规模有关，其中小麦的拍卖对市场价格的影响较为明显，而籼稻拍卖的影响不明显；粮食进口关税配额管理政策没有发挥政策效果，小麦、稻米和玉米三类谷物的平均配额使用率只有10.12%。尽管进口关税配额管理政策对调控粮食价格效果不明显，但出口限制对国内粮价的影响缺较为明显；燃料乙醇的发展对推动粮价上涨起到了很大作用，尽管不能进行实证研究，但本文通过数理模型和最优化模型分析可知燃料乙醇产业具有粮食价格调控的功能。在上述讨论的基础上，本文最后对粮食价格调控政策所产生的社会福利损失和财政支出成本进行了讨论。政策的实施会产生成本，但在中国取消这种政策却是不可行的。唯一可行的办法是在现有政策的基础上对政策体系进行优化，使得该政策以可承受的成本发挥其保护国内粮食生产能力的作用。在研究方法上，本文以规范研究为主，并利用现代计量和统计方法对变量之间的关系进行定量分析。在计量和统计方法上，本文采用最多的是双差分模型、格兰杰因果分析和面板数据模型，协整分析、向量自回归模型、误差修正模型和脉冲响应分析等也有运用。本文的创新之处体现在以下两点：一是首次对中国粮食价格调控政策工具的有效性进行了较为系统的研究，尤其是实证研究；二是在双差分模型的应用上进行了一些创新性的尝试。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the most basic necessities of life, the importance of food is beyond all doubt. Internationalcommunity and every government have attached great importance to food security, due to the socialimpact of food shortages. Economists explain that the main food security long-term food supplyproblem. However, this does not mean that short-term food price is not important. Even though notconsidering the importance of relative stability of food prices to guarantee food security from thehousehold level, to remain food prices at profitable levels for food producers is also the foundation toensure grain production capacity in the long-term. Since the 21st century, grain price has fluctuatedradically in the international market. As per, avoiding excessive volatility in food prices is the commontask for the international community, especially those countries with higher levels of food insecurity.This paper took China’s grain price control policy as the object of study, concentrated on the impact offour policy tools on the food prices, and further explored the effectiveness of regulation policies, as wellas the existing problems.Firstly, the author briefly reviews the evolution process of China’s food price policy, especially thepolicy changes after the founding of the PRC, and approximately determines the effectiveness of foodprice policies through analysis of the performance of China’s grain market in the global food crisis. Inthe following four parts, the paper investigates four issues: the effect of minimum purchase price policyon lifting market price; the effect of food auction policy on controlling food prices, the food regulationthrough food trade policies, as well as the effect of fuel ethanol development policy on food priceregulation. Research results show that these policies could all play the role to regulate food prices tosome extent, but the effect is different: the minimum purchase price policy presents lifting the marketprice effect in most grain types, but the effect on grease soybean industry was not obvious; Theinfluence of auction of wheat market price is obvious, but not on indica type rice. The grain import tariffquotas policies don’t play the policy effect, but the influence of export restrictions on the of domesticfood prices is obvious; although it was difficult to carry on empirical study, analysis shows that fuelethanol industry has the function of regulating food prices through mathematical and optimizationmodel. As per discussion above, this paper discusses the social welfare losses and fiscal costs arisingfrom the regulatory policies of food prices. Although it will cost to implement the policy, to abolish thispolicy is not feasible in China. The only solution is to optimize the policy system based on the existingpolicies, and to make policy exert protective effects in ensuring domestic grain production capacity atan affordable cost.In the research methods, this paper bases on the qualitative research, and took advantage ofmethods of measurement and statistical methods to make quantitative analysis of the relationshipsbetween different variables when necessary. In the methods of measurement and statistical methods, theauthor adopted Difference-In-Difference（DID）Model、Granger Causality Analysis and Panel DataMode frequently, and also Co-integration Analysis，Error Correction Model，VAR Model and Impulse Response Analysis. In these methods, there was some innovation in the application of DID, and theauthor introduced other mature methods to the analysis of these new issues.更多还原