【作者】 余建强；

【导师】 王立海；

【作者基本信息】 东北林业大学 ， 森林工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 国内外关于风险管理理论方面的研究具有十分悠久的历史,而且已经形成了比较系统的风险管理理论体系和风险管理技术,但是关于森林开采项目风险管理方面的研究却并不多见。尤其是在当今我国许多森工企业都纷纷前往俄罗斯进行森林开采项目投资的情况下,如何才能让企业走出国门后再安全地走回来,使得本文的研究变得更加必要和迫切,而且意义更加深远。本文的研究在理论上丰富和完善了风险管理理论,在生产实践中也可为我国的森工企业从事对俄森林开采项目时进行风险管理提供理论指导和技术支持。本文在通过大量的对俄森林开采项目实际的调查和国内外相关文献分析的基础上从理论上对以下几个方面的内容进行了研究：(1)界定相关概念,介绍风险管理理论。本文界定了对俄森林开采项目和与风险相关的一些概念,描述了对俄森林开采项目的特点,简单分析了这些特点对项目风险的影响。同时还介绍了风险管理理论和风险损失控制理论,从而为对俄森林开采项目风险管理的研究奠定了理论基础。(2)分析导致对俄森林开采项目风险的各种风险因素。根据风险产生的原理可知,风险因素是产生风险的原因,所以,风险的管理实质上是对风险因素的管理。为了更好地管理对俄森林开采项目的风险,本文将对俄森林开采项目的风险归纳总结为七大类,并详细地分析了导致这七大风险的各个风险因素。(3)研究对俄森林开采项目风险的评价。本文分析了对俄森林开采项目风险评价的目的和意义,制定了对俄森林开采项目风险评价的六大原则,设计了对俄森林开采项目风险评价的程序步骤,介绍了几种风险评价的基本方法,并简要地对这些方法进行了对比分析。最后,本文以滨海边疆森林开采项目为例展现了对俄森林开采项目的风险评价过程。(4)分析了对俄森林开采项目风险的可管理性。风险的可管理性是指风险管理效果的好坏。本文根据风险管理的经济特性设计出了风险管理收益率模型,用来衡量风险可管理性,并描述了风险管理收益率在项目风险管理中的应用,最后还对滨海边疆森林开采项目风险的可管理性进行了详细分析。(5)讨论对俄森林开采项目风险的管理与对策。本文从风险管理组织和风险管理措施两个方面论述了如何对森林开采项目风险的进行管理。以滨海边疆森林开采项目为例,构建了项目风险管理组织,对其各个职能部门的职能进行了分配,并针对其可管理性较好的重大风险因素制定了相应的风险应对措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 There is a long history about the theory of risk management at home and abroad, and the theory system of risk management and the technology of risk manangement are systemic. But there are very few researches about risk management of forest developing project. At the condition of so many Chinese forest companies go to Russia to invest one by one, how can they get back safely with more profits? That makes the research about risk management of forest developing project in Russia changed more necessarily, urgently and meaningfully.In theory, the research in the paper makes the theory of risk management more perfectly. And in practice, the research in the paper can provide academic foundation and technical support for the Chinese forest companies, when they are engaging in forest developing projects in Russia.Based on investigation for large numbers of forest developing projects in Russia and analysis of the correlative researches at home and abroad, the paper studied some contents in the following text in theory:(1) Defining some and introducing some theory of risk management. The paper defined some correlative conceptions about forest developing project in Russia and risk, and introduced some characteristics of forest developing project, and simply analyzed the infection to the risk of forest developing project. At another time, the paper introduced some theories about risk management and risk loss control, which provided an academic foundation for studying the risk management of forest developing project in Russia.(2) Analyzing all risk factors that make forest developing project in Russia be faced with all kinds of risk. The paper Analyzed the principle of risk occurring. According to the principle, we know that it’s risk factor that occurred risk. And then, the paper classified the risk of forest developing project in Russia, and all risk factors that induce every kind risk in detail.(3) Studying the Risk Assessment of Forest Developing Project in Russia. The paper constituted six principles for the Risk Assesment of forest developing in Russia, and designed the procedure for the Risk Assesment of forest developing in Russia, and introduced some kinds of Risk Assesment methods. And At last, the paper illuminated the risk management process of forest developing project in BinHai.(4) Analyzing the Manageability of Risk of forest developing project in Russia. The Manageability of Risk refers to that the management effect of Risk is good or not. The paper designed a model of Risk Management discount rate according to the economy characteristic of Risk Management, which can measure the Manageability of Risk. At last, the paper detailedly analyzed the Manageability of Risk of forest developing in BinHai. (5) Discussing the material methods to obviate and manage the risk of forest developing project in Russia. The paper discussed how to manage the risk of forest developing project in Russia in the two facets of risk management organization and risk management measure. And take the forest developing in BinHai for example, the paper designed a risk management organization, and prescribed the function of all departments and the connection among them, and brought forward material risk treatment aiming at important risk, which is manageable.更多还原