【作者】 汪志红；

【导师】 王斌会；

【作者基本信息】 暨南大学 ， 统计学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 当前,我国正处于社会转型和突发事件的高发时期,因此,为了维护社会稳定,保障人民群众生命财产安全,急需对突发事件的风险、应急能力以及预测预警技术进行全面、系统的研究。在应对突发事件的各类研究中,人们更多的是从管理层面上进行研究,提出了许多新的管理理念和管理措施,而对获取决策依据的研究方法却经常被忽视。固然,有效的管理方式是应对突发事件的重要手段,但一个优秀的管理或决策方案总是需要大量的决策依据,因此,作为决策者的决策依据在管理层面上也是不容忽视的,它与决策者的管理手段同样重要,没有丰富的决策依据,决策者的决策只是空谈。而科学的决策依据需要通过各学科理论知识和方法的综合研究才能得到。鉴于此,本文将在前人研究的基础上,从统计学角度,以广东省突发事件为研究对象,对突发事件风险评估、应急能力评价与预测预警方法进行综合研究,以求为管理决策者提供更丰富、更有效的决策依据。论文总共分为8个章节,主要从事了以下几个方面的研究：1、研究了论文的研究背景、意义,设计了论文研究技术路线,指出了文章的创新点。2、研究了突发事件的内涵与特点,收集整理了当前应用在突发事件风险评估、应急能力评价以及预测预警方面的各类统计方法,并对各类方法进行了介绍和评述。3、研究了突发事件应急技术中数据库的构建过程,对广东省应急中心建立的相关数据库的建设状况进行了介绍和评述。4、研究了突发事件风险评估过程和风险识别方法；设计了基于坎蒂雷法与G1法的主、客观指标组合赋权法；设计了突发事件分类、评级的主、客观评价方法,并对广东省雷电灾害风险指数进行了分类、评级评估比较研究,结合GIS技术对评估结果进行了区划显示。5、研究了突发事件应急能力发展过程和应急能力系统指标体系构建过程,结合Logistic曲线的特点,提出了基于Logistic曲线的城市应急能力发展过程和基于Logistic隶属函数的城市应急能力发展现状评价模型,并对广州市火灾应急能力发展现状与趋势进行了评价。6、研究了突发事件预测预警过程,结合监测数据特点,设计了长期、短期随机时间序列预测模型,运用短期随机时间序列模型对广东省雷电灾害灾害指数进行了预测,结合GIS技术,综合风险指数评价结果与预测结果,对广东省雷电灾害进行了整体评价和区划显示。7、从科学研究与实用性角度,设计了突发事件应急管理信息系统,为应急工作提供了丰富的研究积累与实用的研究工具。更多还原

【Abstract】 At present, our country is in the period of the social transformation and high occurrence frequency of emergency. Therefore, in order to maintain social stability, and protect the people’s life and property security, it is very necessary that researching the emergency risk, the contingency ability and forecasting and warning technology comprehensively and overall. In the all kinds of study of dealing with emergency, people study more from management, and put forward many new management concept and management measures, and often neglected study method to obtain decision-making basic. Admittedly, the effective management mode is the important means to deal with emergency, but a good management or decision-making plan always need a lot of decision-making basic, accordingly, the decision maker’s decision-making basis is the same important as management measures, it does not allow to be ignored by management, not having the rich decision-making basis, the decision maker’s decision is just talk. It is necessary that studying comprehensively many discipline theory knowledge and methods in order to get the scientific decision-making basis. In view of this, the article will be on the basis of previous studies, and chose the emergencies in the Guangdong province as the research objects, and researched comprehensively emergency risk assessment, the contingency ability evaluation and forecasting and warning methods from the statistics, which provided decision maker’s more rich and effective decision-making basis. The paper is divided into eight chapters, mainly engaged in several aspects of research as the following:1. Studied the paper’s research background, significance, and designed the thesis research technical route, points out the innovations of articles.2. Studied the connotation and characteristics of the emergency, collecting and filing the statistical methods are applied in emergencies risk and contingency ability evaluation and forecasting and warning at present, and introducing and evaluating simply the methods.3. Studied the database construction process of emergency technology, introducing and evaluating the foundation database construction condition of the Guangdong emergency center.4. Studied the emergencies risk assessment process and risk identification methods, designed subjective and objective index combination weighting method based on Amal kanirary method and the G1 method and the the emergencies classification, rating method of the subjective and objective evaluation, and classifing and rating the lightning disaster risk index comparatively in Guangdong province, displaying risk areas regionalization using GIS.5. Studied the contingency ability development process of emergency and constructing process of contingency ability index system, and designed the urban emergency contingency ability development process based on the characteristics of logistic curve and the model of evaluating urban emergency contingency ability development present situation based on logistic membership functions, evaluating fire emergency contingency ability development present situation and the trend in Guangzhou.6. Studied forecasting and warning process of emergency, combining the characteristic of monitoring data, designed the forecasting model base on the short and long term stochastic time series, and forecasted the lightning disaster index in Guangdong province using the model of short-term stochastic time series, integrated risk index evaluation results and the forecast results, evaluated overall lightning disasters in Guangdong province and display regionalization using GIS technology.7. From scientific research and practical Angle, designed the emergency management information system in order to provide abundant research accumulation and practical research tools for emergency work.更多还原