【作者】 张岩；

【导师】 陈晓剑；

【作者基本信息】 中国科学技术大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 人类发展的进程中总是伴随着诸多风险,各类突发性事件频繁发生,而剧烈强度也越来越大。同时,由于不同社会子系统之间的关联度、依赖性和耦合性日益增强,局部性和常规性的突发事件越来越容易演变成具有高度破坏性的非常规突发事件。近年来,我国发生了一系列大规模突发事件,不仅造成了大量的人员伤亡,更严重影响到经济社会发展,直接经济损失约占我国GDP总量的3.5%以上,给社会稳定和可持续发展带来严重威胁。提高非常规突发事件的应对能力是提高执政能力、加强社会管理、建设服务型政府的迫切要求；加强非常规突发事件应急管理研究不仅是中国的要求,也是整个世界的要求。本文以非常规突发事件的态势演化规律和相关调控机制为主要研究对象,研究内容包括突发事件的态势演化机理、路径、模式和调控机制,突发事件状态下公众的个体行为决策模式、群体行为决策模式以及政府信息调控策略,突发事件影响的扩散模式和评估方法,承载区域和承载主体应对非常规突发事件的弹性评估及改进对策。突发事件的态势演化受到事件自身属性、应急处置决策、承载区域的区域弹性、承载主体应急素质等内外部因素的影响,是一个复杂的动态系统。本文在态势管理思想的基础上,提出由承载力、破坏力和控制力组成的三维分析框架,把态势演化路径分为内力驱动演化路径与合力驱动演化路径两种类型,研究了基于路径差异的态势演化机理。应用社会物理学相关理论,构建了突发事件态势演化和态势调控的数学建模,研究了前向调控、同步调控和后向调控等三种态势调控机制,其中前向型调控是最优策略。突发状态下个体的行为决策受到风险态度、风险认知和政府信赖等因素的影响,政府有效地信息供给可以缩小公众非理性行为的空间集合。突发事件信息传播过程会带来非直接受害群体的虚拟风险体验,而基于虚拟风险体验和记忆回溯的决策模式存在代表性、易得性、锚定和调整等直觉偏差,容易导致非理性行为。个体非理性行为在信息约束下会实现大范围的快速传染,从而诱发集群性非理性行为,这将加剧态势演化的复杂性和不确定性。政府及时地信息披露,有助于平息这种非理性情绪感染和行为扩散,但信息传播过程中要关注公众的渠道选择规律,实证分析显示我国公众的信息渠道选择存在明显偏好。非常规突发事件影响是态势的函数,突发事件的影响扩散是由物理影响向社会影响的非线性蔓延过程,其中信息传播、风险的社会放大会具有显著地推动作用。根据突发事件影响扩散的时间序列特征和演化特征,突发事件影响扩散可分为即时型、突发型和舒缓型三种类型。在突发事件影响扩散函数模型中,引入表征突发事件属性的参数n,研究发现n=2是即时型扩散和突发型扩散之间的临界阈值,n=5是突发型扩散与舒缓型扩散之间的临界阈值。阿玛蒂亚森提出的可行能力方法为评估突发事件的综合影响提供了新的理论视角,通过因突发事件而造成的个人可行能力的变化定量评估突发事件的综合影响是可能的。根据人类发展指数评估方法,构建突发事件影响指数评估模型,选择突发事件中的死亡人数、受伤人数、无家可归人数以及直接经济损失作为可行能力的指标,对国内外发生的重大突发事件影响评估进行了案例分析和比较研究,发现突发事件的影响指数和区域承载力、经济社会发展可持续性等有关,区域的承载能力越强,突发事件的影响指数就越低。提高承载区域的机构弹性和公众的应急素质,将有助于提高突发事件的应急管理绩效,而我国各省区的区域弹性和公众应急素质都存在结构性差异,有较大的提升空间。基于DEA方法的区域弹性指数评价发现,单纯的经济增长并不能有效提高区域弹性指数,而经济结构的调整、科技的支撑与引领、生态环境的保护等和区域弹性正相关,因此转变经济发展方式有助于提高区域弹性。公众应急弹性与受教育程度、收入水平等因素显著相关,总体上来看,我国公众的面对突发状态的脆弱性较高,有必要从教育、培训和演练等各方面着手,加强公众应急能力建设。更多还原

【Abstract】 The process of human development is always accompanied by a number of risks, all types of emergencies occur frequently, and the destructive power of emergencies is increasing. Also, due to the correlation, dependency, and coupling between different social subsystems, a partial or routine emergency more likely to become a highly destructive unconventional emergency. In recent years, China suffered a series of large-scale emergencies. It not only caused heavy casualties, but also leaded to serious economic losses which are about 3.5% of GDP. Over the same time, those unconventional emergencies posed some serious threat to social stability and sustainable development of economic. Improving the government’s response ability to unconventional emergency contributes to increase the governance ability, and helps to enhance government’s social administration capacity, and it is also the requirements of building a service-oriented government. Strengthen the research on management theory of unconventional emergencies, is not only China’s needs, but also the whole world.Situation evolution of unconventional emergency and the related regulation mechanism is the main research object of this paper. The research topics including the trend evolution mechanism, path, pattern, and mechanism of emergency, the decision-making patterns of individual behavior, the decision-making patterns of group behavior and government information control strategies under the state of public emergency, the diffusion pattern and assessment methold of emergency impacts, the assessment models and countermeasures of regional emergency response capacity and public resilience.The situation evolution of emergencies is a complex dynamic system, affected by the property of the event itself, emergency response decision-making, the resilience of the bearing region, and the publici resilience. Based on the situation management theory, a three-dimensional analysis framework was put forwarded, consisting of capacity to bear, capacity to destroy, and capacity to control, which divided the situation evolution path into internal forces driving and hybrid forces driving, and the mechanisms of the situation evolution based on the differences of the paths are also studied. Using the theory of social physics, this paper builds a mathematical model of situation evolution and situation control, and studies the three main kinds of control including forward control, Synchronization control and backward control, of which the forward control is the optimal strategy.Individuals often make decisions according to intuition and experience in crisis situation. Because of intuitive bias, these decisions often lead to irrational behaviors of individuals and even non-rational behaviors of groups. The present paper analysis individuals’ and groups’ behavioral decision-making under emergency situation based on Prospect Theory and constructed a framework of government’s information suplying mechanism with three dimensions such as risk attitude, risk perception and trust, we considered that the government can reduce the group behavioral space (GBS) through the effective crisis communication and it can reduce the uncertainty of emergency response. And we verified the validity of the framework through two typical cases such as SARS incident and Wenchuan earthquake. At the same time, people have their preference in deciding how to obtain information, and their favors are obviously related with their personal characteristics.The impact of unconventional emergencies is a function of emergency situation; the diffusion of emergencies is a nonlinear process from the physical impacts to the social impacts in which information dissemination and social amplification of risks have a significant role. According to the time-series characteristics and evolution characteristics, the diffusion of emergencies has three models which are peak-bottom type, burst type and ease type. There is a characterization Parameter n in the diffusion function which is representation of the properties of emergency events. We found that n=2 is the threshold of peak-bottom type to burst type, and n=5 is the threshold of burst type to ease type.There is a widely acknowledged need for a single composite index that provides a comprehensive picture of the impact of unconventional emergencies. A composite index combines and logically organizes important information policy-makers need to allocate resources for the recovery from unconventional emergencies; it can also inform hazard mitigation strategies. A capabilities-based approach was first developed by philosopher Martha Nussbaum and economist Amartya Sen, who won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1998 for this work and its application to development economics and policy.The capabilities framework is currently used by the United Nations and development agencies to estimate societal development through the Human Development Index (HDI). In this paper, we propose to measure the net impact of unconventional emergencies which is called "Emenrgency Impact Index (EII)"by looking at the impact of an emergency on the capabilities of individuals, and so, on their standard of living and well being. A few selected capabilities such as number of individuals killed, number of individuals injured, number of individuals left homeless and direct economic losses/GDP, can be used to assess the expected change in the quality of life of individuals in the society in the aftermath of an unconventional emergency.Scientific assessment of the regional emergency response capacity and enhance regional resilience are important paths to improve the social management capacity of government. This paper constructed an evaluation model of regional resilience based on the DEA theory, and measured each province’s "regional resilience index" of China’s mainland from 2001 to 2009 through empirical analysis. The study found that economic growth alone can not bring optimization of regional resilience, more importantly, transformation of the mode of economic development, readjust the economic structure, strengthen scientific and technological innovation, focus on the rational use of ecological resources and the protection of environment have positive externalities to enhancing regional resilience. The present paper also analyzes the public vulnerability and establishes an evaluation model for public resilience; and makes an empirical research through a questionnaire survey in East China, we found that the public vulnerability is very high and the public resilience is quite low. On this basis we put forward some countermeasures and proposals for building public emergency capacity.更多还原