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明代历法的计算机模拟分析与综合研究

Computer-Aided Analysis and Comprehensive Research of the Calendrical Astronomy Systems in Ming China

【作者】 李亮

【导师】 石云里;

【作者基本信息】 中国科学技术大学 , 科学技术史, 2011, 博士

【摘要】 本论文主要根据新发现的史料,采用计算机模拟分析的方法,结合明代的政治和社会背景,对明代历法的发展进行了新的探讨和研究。全文共分基本史料、精度分析、政治社会三篇。论文的基本史料篇逐一对大统系列和回回系列历法著作进行了内容比较和版本辨析,厘清了两大系列历法著作各自的特点以及两部历法的基本发展情况。揭示了大统系列历法和回回系列历法在发展过程中所形成的一些特有“传统”。论文的精度分析篇在解读历法算法的基础上,对大统历和回回历法进行了完整的计算机编程处理。通过计算机模拟推算,对大统历和回回历法在日月食预报、五星运动等方面的推算精度进行了分析。通过比较大统历各版本在交食算法上的差异,分析得出明代官方大统历推算中实际依据的是《大统历法通轨》,而并非是此前学者们一直认为的《明史》本大统历。研究还发现《授时历经》在计算交食时,会随着时间的推移而出现推算“后天”的现象,《大统历法通轨》则针对《授时历经》当时推算的误差,对“应数”和算法做了部分调整,使得交食预测精度有了明显的提高,这说明元统等人在明初所做的历法调整工作是卓有成效的,至少在授时历的框架内,使历法得到了明显的改善。但是由于元统等人在历法修订的过程中没有跳出授时历的基本框架,故依然无法摆脱授时历中交食推算“后天”这一缺陷所带来的影响,使得大统历在明末时也同样出现交食推算“后天”的现象。对此,明末的一些民间学者提出了相应的解决方案,经过对其进行计算机模拟计算证明,这种法案确实是有效的。此外,该篇通过对日本内阁文库藏明刊本《回回历法》的交食和日月运动情况进行计算机模拟推算和精度分析,表明虽然很多史料对回回历法给予了较高的评价,但回回历法在交食时刻的推算方面其实并不不理想,其精度远不及同时期的大统历,但在食分的推算上回回历法却比大统历具有一定的优势,这也使得回回历法在与大统历长期参用的过程中发挥了重要作用。该篇还通过计算机模拟推算,对大统历和回回历法行星运动的精度进行了分析,并对回回历法恒星星表中的各恒星进行了认证。在对《宣德十年月五星凌犯》进行分析时,还发现月五星凌犯的推算是回回历法在其使用过程中的一项重要功能。论文的政治社会篇对朱元璋时期的天文历法发展情况进行了讨论,认为由于朱元璋对天文和历法工作的重视和支持,使得明初的天文历法工作取得了良好的成效,这对整个明代天文和历法的发展也产生了很大影响。此外,根据最新发现的史料,对“正统已巳历日改革”事件进行了探究,表明由于“土木事变”的偶然发生,导致正统年间这次单纯的历法调整受到了政治事件和社会环境的干预和影响。由于中国历史上各个朝代天文历法的发展往往摆脱不了相关制度的制约及影响,所以该编还从明代钦天监的日常管理和制度方面,讨论了钦天监的日常工作,以及监内一些弊病对当时天文历法发展所造成的影响。该编的最后还从历法是否修?历法何人修?历法如何修?以及历法改革所需的环境和时机等方面对明代历法的改革过程进行了分析和讨论。

【Abstract】 Based on a number of newly discovered astronomical works from the Ming Dynasty(AD 1 368一AD 1644),this thesis is a new exploration of the history of the calendrical astronomy in this dynasty with a combination of computer simulation with historicaI criticism.The whole thesis consists ln three major pads.The first part attempts to give a hitherto most comprehensive survey and analysis of the ancient works on the Chinese and Chinese—Islamic systems of calendrical astronomy officially prepared and adopted by the Ming government Except the works already known and used by previous schoIars,this paper casts light on a number of newly discovered or Iess studied works such as the Gateway to the Grand Union System of Calendrical Astronomy by Yuan Tong, the Grand Union System of Calendrical Astronomy of the Great Ming Dynasty and the Chinese.Islamic System of Calendrica/Astronomy edited by Bei Lin and Republished by Zhou Xiang.A very interesting result of this survey and analysis is the discovery of the existence of various traditions formed and developed over the long history of the Ming dynasty in the study of both the Grand Union and the Chinese—Islamic systems within and without the officiaI circles As a fact unnoticed by previous studies.this is very impo rtant in our understanding of the history of calendricaI astronomy in the Ming dynasty in pa rticular,in the whole late imperial China in general.In the second part of this thesis,based on the computer program imitating the entire functions of both the Grand Union and Chinese—Islamic systems of calendrical astronomy precision of the both systems in the eclipse prediction and positional calculation of the sun。the moon and the five major planets is analyzed against the results obtained with modern ephemerides,giving us a direct concept of the leveI of the both systems ln treating lhese practical problems.Some interesting results have been reached.For example,it is discovered that the real official version of the Grand Union actually applied at the Ming Bureau of Astronomy is nol the one contained in the Mst0ry 0f the Ming Dynasty officially compiled in the early Qing dynasty as most previous scholars believed,but Yuan Tong’s Gateway to the Grand Union System which has been said to be put in oblivion ever since it completion.What we previously believed to be lhe most severe failures of Yuan Tong in adapted Guo Shoujing’s Season Granting System of Calendrical Astronomy into the Grand Union System were actually the ways that Yuan T0ng used in an attempt to reduce the systematic errors of Guo’s system with the long lapse of time.a series of make—shift measures applied by a number of Iate Ming astronomers in their effo~s to suggest new and better systems for calendar reform.1t is also found that the Chinese—Islamic System was not as precise in practical calculations as compared with the Grand Union System.although its theoreticaI basis seems to be better than that Of the Iatter.The only advantage was seen in the prediction of the magnitudes of fhe eclipses probably due to its much more exact power in the Iatitudinal calculation of the moon. On the basis of both technica{analyses and newly discovered materials. the third part of the thesis concentrates on the sociaI histo ry of officiaI astronomy in the Ming Dynasty.in order to show the special milieus for the development of calendrical astronomy in Ihe said dynasty Three episodes of this history are used as case studies.The first one concerns the attitude toward and the actually appealing to the knowledge of heavens of Zhu Yuanzhang,the founding emperor of the dynasty in question,who apparently set up an example for his successors in paying great attention to celestial studies.Jn lhe second case.an attempted calendar revision was fatally crippled by an emergent milita ry conflict between China and Oyrad in the year AO 1 449.a good example for the subtle relationship between calendrical astronomy and socio—politics events in the Ming Dynasty In the third and last case.a number of problems in the administration of the Bureau of Astronomy, such as the official corruption,the inappropriate promotion directly by the emperor negative impacts of the civil examination and the intentionaI frauds in hiding erroneous predictions frOm the throne.are discussed to show that the Bureau of Astronomy was not an effective and congenial institute for the development of astronomyFinally the thesis discusses severaI issues concerning lhe astronomical reform in the Ming Dynasty in order to answer the questions of when a refOrm should be initiated.who the task should be commissioned to,how the reform should be carried out and what kinds of occasions and circumstances are conductive to a successfuI reform.

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