【作者】 吴彪；

【导师】 许洪国；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 交通环境与安全技术， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 随着国家对交通基础设施建设投资力度的加大,我国公路通车里程快速增长；与此同时,机动车保有量和机动车驾驶人数量也急剧增加。公路通车里程的快速增长、机动车保有量和机动车驾驶人的急剧增加给道路交通安全带来了严峻挑战。高速公路通车里程的增加及早期建成的高速公路相继进入大中修,有相当一部分高速公路出现了不同程度的、各种各样的破损问题,这些破损都要在养护作业中加以预防和处理,所以高速公路的养护维修工作日益重要。作为高速公路交通系统组成的重要部分,作业区是为高速公路养护和维修作业所设置的交通管理区域。高速公路养护作业过程通常并不中断交通,使得作业区的交通问题变得越来越突出,通行能力下降、交通延误加剧、车辆油耗和尾气排放量增加以及交通事故率上升等。由于养护施工作业的影响,高速公路作业区车道数量减少,存在着车辆合流、车辆跟驰、车辆分流等复杂的车辆运行状况,作业区已成为高速公路的交通障碍和事故危险源,是高速公路常发性交通拥挤及诱发各类交通事故的主要区域之一,给人民群众带来巨大的经济损失和精神压力,影响着人们的正常生活。高速公路作业区的安全问题及其带来的负面影响已引起交通工程师和专家学者的关注。因此,开展高速公路作业区行车风险辨识、风险评估和风险控制研究,为高速公路养护、大中修及改扩建工程的交通组织及安全保障提供理论依据和技术支持,具有重要的现实意义。本文以国家自然科学基金项目“车辆道路协同状态安全演进”(51078167)和黑龙江省交通运输厅科技项目“黑龙江省高速公路养护工程安全保障技术研究”(200900001)为依托,从道路交通系统工程的角度出发,综合考虑驾驶员、车辆、道路及环境因素对高速公路作业区行车安全的影响,针对作业区行车环境的复杂性和车辆运行的特殊性,开展作业区行车风险与安全控制研究。具体研究内容如下：(1)提出高速公路作业区行车风险分析理论框架和流程,为作业区行车风险辨识、风险评估和风险控制奠定理论基础。在界定高速公路、作业区、风险和道路交通系统风险等概念的基础上,应用数理统计、系统分析和风险分析等基础理论,提出高速公路作业区行车风险分析的理论和方法。(2)基于数理统计理论验证高速公路作业区断面车速服从正态分布。根据高速公路作业区养护施工现场布局、区域划分和车辆运行特性,制定了交通量和车速数据采集方案；在比较分析的基础上,给出以5mmin为统计间隔的高速公路作业区流量-时间变化模型和流量-空间变化模型；采用P-P概率图和单样本K-S检验方法分别对典型高速公路作业区断面车速频率分布进行检验；采用两个独立样本K-S检验方法验证作业区不同断面车速差异显著；在此基础上,进一步分析作业区车速的时间特性、空间特性和超速特性。(3)基于DEMATEL和ISM两种结构模型建立高速公路作业区行车风险因素辨识模型。在文献分析和专家咨询的基础上,从人、车、路及环境系统的角度出发,构建高速公路作业区行车风险因素的指标体系；基于Delphi法确定高速公路作业区行车风险因素的逻辑关系;采用DEMATEL和ISM两种方法建立高速公路作业区行车风险因素辨识模型,定量分析各因素之间的影响关系,确定影响高速公路作业区行车风险的关键因素。(4)通过分析作业区车辆运行特性和行车风险,建立高速公路作业区行车风险的仿真评价模型。在选用风险度量指标和表征行车风险的宏观交通流参数的基础上,应用Vissim微观交通流仿真软件模拟高速公路作业区交通流,采集交通仿真试验数据计算车辆临界加速度、平均风险水平及表征作业区行车风险的交通流宏观参数,构建平均风险水平和交通流宏观参数的多元线性回归模型,进而确定作业区行车风险等级,为作业区行车风险控制提供科学依据。(5)为改善作业区行车环境、提高作业区行车安全水平,开展高速公路作业区行车风险控制策略研究。从限速标志和VMS设置两方面入手,结合信息技术,提出高速公路作业区交通组织和安全管理方法和措施,有效控制高速公路作业区行车风险。本文研究成果为科学、有效管理高速公路养护施工作业现场,为高速公路作业区的交通安全评价、交通组织与管理提供了理论依据和技术支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the increasing of investment for transportation infrastructure, the growth speed of highway mileage is rapid increasingly in our country; at the same time, the amount of motor vehicle and motor vehicle driver increase dramatically, which bring a serious challenge to traffic safety.Owing to the growth of expressway mileage and requirement of maintenance construction, heavy maintenance, reconstruction and extension for early freeway, the early breakage problems of expressway have occurred in a considerable scale, which must be solved by maintenance. Therefore, the maintenance of expressway becomes increasingly important. As an important part of expressway traffic system, woke zone is the given space of spot for maintenance. During the course of maintenance, the traffic of expressway is not required to interrupt. Thus, traffic problems in expressway woke zone become more prominent, such as reduction of traffic capacity, intensification of traffic delay, advance of fuel consumption and exhaust emissions and growth of traffic accidents. Owing to the influence of expressway maintenance, the lane number of work zone reduces and traffic capacity decreases. And also there are a lot of complicated traffic status such as vehicles merging, vehicle following and vehicle diffluence. As a result, expressway work zone has been not only an obstacle and dangerous source, but also one of space zones where recurrent congestion and various incidents occurred more frequently, which has brought large economic losses and mental stress and affected people’s normal life. The safety of expressway work zone and its negative influence have become a focus that more and more engineers and researchers have to concern with. Therefore, the research on the risk identification, evaluation and control for expressway woke zone has great practical significance, which provides the theoretical basis and technical support for traffic safety security in maintenance construction.This dissertation is based on the project of Transportation Science and Technology of Heilongjiang Province "Research on Safety Security Technology for Expressway Maintenance Engineering in Heilongjiang Province" (200900001) and National Natural Science Foundation "Evolution of Vehicle Road Safety Coordination State" (51078167). On the view of highway traffic system engineering, this dissertation researches driving risk and safety control by considering the comprehensive factors of driver, vehicle, road and environment, complicated traffic environment and vehicle operation characteristics. And the research contents are as the following.(1) Theoretical framework and process of driving risk analysis for expressway work zone are proposed, which provides theoretical basis for risk identification, assessment and control. Based on the definitions of expressway, work zone, risk and road traffic system risk, the theory and method of risk analysis on expressway work zone are proposed by mathematical statistics, system analysis and risk analysis.(2) Section speed in expressway woke zone is verified in normal distribution based on the theory of mathematical statistics. According to the site layout, area division and vehicle operation characteristic of work zone, the data collection programme of traffic volume and vehicle speed is worked out. And then the traffic volume-time and traffic volume-space models of expressway work zone are proposed with 5min intervals in accordance with comparative analysis. And moreover P-P probability plots and One Sample K-S Test are utilized to verify the normal distribution for section speed frequency distribution of work zone respectively. And further Two Samples K-S Test is presented to verify the significance of differences on speed between different sections. At last, the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics and speeding characteristics of speed are further exploreed based on above analysis.(3) The models identifying driving risk of expressway woke zone are established based on DEMATEL and ISM. According to literature review and expert consultation, the index system of driving risk factors on expressway work zone is presented. And also Delphi method is utilized to determine the logic relationship between driving risk factors of expressway work zone. And then the methods of DEMATEL and ISM are adopted to establish the models to identify driving risk of expressway woke zone, which help to analyze the inter-relations between each pair of risk factors and determine the key factors of driving risk in expressway work zone.(4) The simulation evaluation model on driving risk of expressway woke zone is established by analyzing traffic characteristics and driving risk. And then after selecting risk measurement index and macroseopic traffic flow parameters, The Vissim software is adopted to simulate traffic flow in expressway work zone and collect the test data from simulation which is used to calculate the vehicle critical acceleration, the average risk level and macroseopic traffic flow parameters. And further the multiple linear regression model that can determine those contents presented above is constructed, which provides the scientific references for risk control.(5) To improve traffic environment and safety level in expressway work zone, the driving risk control strategy is researched. Based on speed limit signs and variable message signs, traffic organization measurements and safety management methods are proposed to control driving risk in expressway work zone combining information technology.The research results will provide theoretical basis and technical support for work zone scene management, safety evaluation, traffic organization and management scientifically and effectively.更多还原